Exploring the sun and the moon, opening of the space commercial tour, the film crew going to heaven for the first time... From the "new frontier" in the 1960s to the "new frontier" of countries and enterprises competing for the layout today, silent space ushered in the most lively year in the past 2021.
The scene of a hundred flowers in space in the past year has also impressed Yu Zhanfu, a global partner at Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. "When the epidemic first broke out in 2020, we judged that industries involving people mobility, catering, tourism, retail and other scenarios would be greatly affected," he said. ”
Not only that, due to the impact of the epidemic, investment in the field of ground infrastructure has been impacted, but investment in space infrastructure has become more and more rapid since 2020.
In Yu Zhanfu's view, there are coincidences in the centralized outbreak of space exploration technology in 2021, "whether it is the plans of various countries to explore the moon and explore the fire, or the launch of the 'Dove' Weber telescope that waited for 25 years at the end of last year, in fact, these projects have already started at different points in time." It's just that in those two years, projects have happened to have entered some key breakthrough periods. ”
But he also stressed that to promote the technological progress or breakthrough of space exploration, it requires a high technical content, often involving long-term and huge investment, the project is grand and determined, so the resilience of this industry is still very strong at the moment of the epidemic.
Next Investment Frontier?
In 2021, the International Space Station (ISS) welcomed the 14-year-old Nauka module. The arrival of the "Science" experimental module can provide more space for the space station astronauts to carry out scientific experiments for the old International Space Station. Because many space missions in the United States, Russia, and Europe are docked with the International Space Station, the International Space Station has become extremely crowded. Expanding space has become a top priority for the International Space Station.
On April 29, the International Space Station welcomed a manned space station independently built and operated by China. Since then, 6 Chinese astronauts have entered space. As of December 30, 2021, China's annual space launch missions have all been completed, the number of space launches has reached 55, ranking first in the world, and the number of launches and spacecraft has reached a record high. Yu Zhanfu believes that the various achievements made by China in the aerospace field in the past year show that China has been very precise in the global space system according to its own established schedule.
2021 also saw the enthusiasm of the rich for space exploration. When SpaceX, the company Musk founded, became the first private tech company to send astronauts into a predetermined orbit in 2020, SpaceX began to dabble in more and more space-related "firsts" in 2021. For example, on January 24, 2021, SpaceX once again broke history by sending 143 satellites into space with a Falcon 9 rocket, breaking the record set by India's PSLV rocket for a single delivery of 104 satellites in 2017. In mid-September, SpaceX sent the world's first all-civilian crew into space orbit, further opening the door to the space tourism industry.
Although Musk himself did not go into space himself in 2021, this does not prevent his fellow billionaires, who are also competitors, from going into space. Since last year, Jeff Bezos and British billionaires Richard Branson and Jared Isaacson have gone into space. It is reported that Musk himself has also booked a future Virgin Galactic space trip, but it is unclear when he will choose to take off. As recently as May 2021, UBS estimated that the space travel market could reach $3 billion by 2030.
Carissa Christensen, CTO of Bryce Space, has long smelled the charm of the "space economy." He said the arrival of two new types of investors has brought changes to the industry: first, the billionaire community is enthusiastic about space and is trying to change the market with new business practices; second, the situation in which venture capital is rarely involved in the space economy due to the high cost is also changing, reusable rocket parts have reduced launch costs, and small satellites are gradually developing and playing an increasingly important role in the era of data economy.
According to the space technology investment report released by Space Capital, an angel investment platform for aerospace technology, a total of 112 space technology startups around the world received investment in the third quarter of 2021, with a total financing of $8.7 billion. From a longer historical period, since 2012 (as of the third quarter of 2021), a total of 1654 companies in the industry have received investments worldwide, with a cumulative financing of $231.2 billion.
In addition to the commercial value, the strategic value of space is also becoming increasingly prominent. After making a breakthrough in the reuse of rockets, Musk also dabbled in the research of the Starlink Space Internet. Earlier, Musk said that the delay time of the StarLink Space Internet is about 20 milliseconds. Yu Zhanfu told First Finance and Economics that compared with the current 250 millisecond delay of conventional communication methods, once this space communication is really realized, it will trigger a considerable strategic competitive advantage, and the 10-fold delay time difference may even be a dimensionality reduction blow.
Technological developments call for new regulations
As more and more countries have the will and ability to enter space, it is also an indisputable fact that the outer space of the earth is destined to become more and more crowded. Last year's "Starlink" satellite approaching the Chinese space station incident, Russia's anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons test led to the orbital debris cloud incident, etc., eager for the international community to further regulate this area that humans rarely involve.
Earlier, the Chinese Permanent Mission to the United Nations (Vienna) submitted a note verbale to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, saying that the Starlink satellite launched by the US Space Exploration Technology Corporation has approached the Chinese space station twice in 2021, posing a danger to the lives and health of astronauts carried by the Chinese space station. For security reasons, the Chinese space station assembly has twice implemented "emergency collision avoidance" for relevant US satellites.
Yu Zhanfu believes that China's use of diplomatic channels to communicate shows that the international community still needs to promote and formulate some agreements involving the use of space resources through the United Nations, etc. "In the end, it is necessary to solve this problem by using rules." ”
The current recognized cornerstone of international law in the field of outer space is the United Nations Outer Space Treaty adopted in 1967, but Deutsche Bank believes in the "Top Ten Themes of Capital Market Concern in 2022" that the above system cannot restrain the current development trend of "weaponization" of space technology. Second, in terms of defense and research and development, the parties still walk on vague boundaries and do not agree on specific uses.
"Although every move in space, and even outer space, is far away from our human surface life, in the final analysis, it still has a strong national interest." Yu Zhanfu said, "If there is no recognized international rule to restrict the development and use of space resources, it is very likely that there will be predatory preemption of space resources in orbit." ”
Deutsche Bank has listed "Space Race" as one of the top ten themes for global capital markets in 2022. Deutsche Bank explained that the importance of space has surged over the past few years, as falling launch costs have led to an increase in the number of satellites in orbit, thereby increasing dependence on them. "In addition to military uses, future conflicts will certainly focus on satellite-dependent communications, GPS and financial applications." The above report reads.
Yu Zhanfu told First Financial Economics that today, on the one hand, countries are strengthening their own technology, on the other hand, they are also promoting the establishment of some international orders in the field of space, "In the past, all parties were more than products and technology, and now they have triggered the need to promote the establishment of corresponding rules and guidelines for the use of space resources by all mankind." Obviously more diverse. ”
In Yu Zhanfu's view, the earliest international community relied on imagination or experience in other fields, ground resources and transportation to set a preliminary rule for space, but under the current development of advanced technology, some unimaginable dangerous situations will occur. "At this point, the parties feel that the lack of rules may lead to significant property and personnel losses, so there is an urgent need to be very serious or immediately return to the issue of rules."
Deutsche Bank believes that "everyone wants everyone else to follow the rules." However, the rules of space are outdated. Tensions above Earth seem to amplify tensions on Earth. Space threats have become a topic of geopolitical negotiations, and by 2022 they could be at the forefront and center. ”
In Yu Zhanfu's view, space is a typical field of competitive coexistence. "In the field of 'card neck' involving key or sensitive technologies, I believe that no country will let go," he said, "but in some areas that are conducive to the development of all mankind, such as satellite observation, countries can still find a considerable number of cooperation issues." But Yu Zhanfu also stressed that the research of countries on space exploration will not be separated by competition, "we will see a strange combination." ”