"No preparations for war" Russian media: The West has no reason to think that Russia is ready to launch an offensive

On January 14, the website of Russia Today TV published an article entitled "Is Russia Really Ready to Launch an Offensive against Ukraine?" article by retired Russian Colonel Mikhail Hodarenok. The full text is excerpted below:

On January 11, about 3,000 military personnel of Russia's Western Military District held military exercises at joint training bases in several regions not far from Russia's borders with Ukraine and Belarus. The move has been an anxiety for the West, and the United States has demanded an explanation for the exercises.

The Russian side used about 300 pieces of military equipment in the exercise, including main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. But is that a lot? Let's recall that a mobile regiment had about 2,500 men in wartime. The 300 main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles were far below the strength of a regular tank division.

Therefore, we can safely say that this exercise in Russia is only equivalent to the size of a reinforced regiment. A single regiment should not and cannot provoke large-scale geopolitical tensions.

In recent months, the United States and NATO have repeatedly accused Russia of plotting an invasion of Ukraine. Even the media gave the specific date of the so-called Russian attack. However, there is little evidence to support this allegation.

Let's take a few examples. First example: Suppose that military action against Ukraine is to be taken, which will inevitably require the participation of the Russian Air force, because in the 21st century war it is not enough to rely solely on ground motorized infantry and tanks.

If the Russian Air Force is to be involved, we have to talk about their tasks. For example, each Russian Air force-level unit was assigned 30 missions – again in the early days of the conflict. It is hard to imagine how many air-dropped bombs each regimental unit would need to carry out these 30 missions, which would be hundreds of tons of ammunition, which is not an exaggeration at all.

By monitoring military intelligence with the help of satellite capabilities and modern intelligence techniques of advanced surveillance technology, all transported cargo will never be missed.

Second example: If we are to conduct such a battle, we must also take into account the ammunition used by all artillery and multiple rocket launchers. A single mission requires each gun to fire 5 to 6 ordinary shells. For actual combat, at least 30 days of ammunition need to be prepared. Then the large-scale logistical operation of transporting all ammunition by rail should have already begun.

These two examples alone illustrate what a fraction of the material support needed to sustain a large-scale offensive looks like. In fact, the amount of military equipment required in combat is much higher. This hardware support is essential for the success of any military operation.

If no one actually observes or monitors such massive preparations by satellite, there is no reason to think that Russia is ready to go to war soon.

Source: Reference News Network