Producer/Associate Column
Written/Associate Senior Advisory Board Member Old Knife
The author has always held a "bearish" attitude towards blind boxes. As early as December 2020, the article "Bubble Mart Is Listed, is the Blind Box Harvesting Leeks or Carrying Dreams" pointed out that the pleasure brought by the blind box to consumers is very short-lived, only at the moment of opening, the stiff and immovable dolls cannot interact and have nothing to play.
After the listing of Bubble Mart on December 11, 2020, the most difficult question to answer has always been faced: Can Bubble Mart exist permanently, and where is its value point? Speculation and artificially created limited editions obviously cannot support the benign development of a listed company for a long time.
A year later, the author's original judgment was confirmed.
This joint marketing of KFC and Bubble Mart, the China Consumer Association named KFC to "induce excessive consumption", KFC is the culprit, but in fact, what is reflected behind it is bubble Mart's helplessness and degeneration.
1, KFC suffered
At the beginning of the new year, KFC basically wanted to do business well, but did not expect that a consumer directly sent it to the cusp of the storm with a consumption list of 10494 yuan.
On January 12, the China Consumer Association issued a document saying that the use of "blind boxes" to induce excessive consumption of food should be resisted!
"As a catering enterprise, KFC's fast food is a limited-time use commodity, and on-demand purchase and instant consumption are the characteristics of such goods, and consumers usually do not over-purchase." The sale of limited blind boxes is to stimulate consumption by means of "hunger marketing", which can easily lead to impulsive consumption of consumers in order to obtain limited blind boxes, and unnecessary food waste due to over-purchase.
"As a food business operator, KFC uses limited-edition blind box sales to induce and connive consumers to irrationally over-purchase food packages, which is contrary to public order and good customs and the spirit of the law."
At the same time, the China Consumer Association also advocates consumers to view their own consumption needs prudently, improve their ability to distinguish between right and wrong, carry out scientific and rational consumption activities, and jointly resist blind consumption, impulsive consumption, excessive consumption and other bad consumption behaviors.
For the naming and criticism of the China Consumer Association, KFC is very tough:
KFC customer service replied to consumers that there is no plan to suspend activities, and will feedback the irrational consumption situation to the relevant departments for verification, blind boxes will continue to sell, and the specific situation can be consulted at local restaurants.
As early as before the China Consumer Association named, on January 10, the news of "KFC blind box second-hand price soared 8 times" rushed to the hot search.
It is reported that the protagonist of the blind box is the head IP Dimoo series of Bubble Mart, which is only sold in first- and second-tier cities, and the package quota of each store is only 36. As soon as the package was launched, it was robbed wildly, and there was even a "professional eating" app.
On the second-hand platform idle fish, the set (a set of 6) blind box dolls is priced between 600 yuan and 800 yuan, and the price of the hidden model is as high as 800 yuan / one, an increase of 8 times over the original price.
Although the joint name of KFC and Bubble Mart this time has been irrationally consumed by many impulsive consumers. But in the long run, the blind box economy has become increasingly cold.
From another point of view, the joint marketing of Bubble Mart and KFC, if you eat KFC can send Bubble Mart's blind box, but also the head IP series, then it can be seen that Bubble Mart's fashion and trendy play positioning has fallen to what extent, once with real money and silver consumption to buy Bubble Mart users will feel deeply pitted?
2. Awkward Bubble Mart
As a tide play track Internet celebrity brand, Bubble Mart has shown signs of a decline in the ability to absorb gold from head IP and a slowdown in revenue growth, and its market value has also fallen from nearly HK$150 billion to the current HK$61.8 billion.
On December 11, 2020, bubble mart, known as the "first share of the blind box", was listed in Hong Kong, and the market value rushed to 150 billion, and for a while, the blind box was on fire, and even some people shouted out the slogan of "everything can be blind box".
According to enterprise investigation data, there are more than 4.91 million toy-related enterprises and more than 3,000 tide play-related enterprises nationwide. Among them, in 2020, 572 new tide play enterprises in China were added, an increase of 15% year-on-year, the highest in the calendar year.
Although Bubble Mart brought the blind box to fire, and the blind box once accounted for 80% of Bubble Mart's sales, in the past year, Bubble Mart founder Wang Ning said on many occasions that Bubble Mart is not a blind box company, but essentially an IP operation company with tide play as the carrier.
Bubble Mart started with a blind box, but its founder knows that the blind box is not sustainable after all, and it does not rely on a strong IP background, so Bubble Mart wants to take off the distinctive "blind box label" on the body with difficulty.
According to the report of China Entrepreneur Magazine, starting from 2021, Bubble Mart will no longer list the benefits of the blind box separately in the financial report. In Wang Ning's view, blind boxes are just a form of sales that is icing on the cake.
But if there is no blind box, what is bubble Mart's so-called "tide play"?
Some insiders said that the blind box is a more entry-level product of collecting toys, and behind this is the collectible toy market with greater development potential.
This year, Bubble Mart launched a collection series of large dolls developed based on the core IP Molly, priced at more than 1,000 yuan, known as "the first collectible of young people", and began to explore China's collectible toy market. "This group of consumers who play with blind boxes now have the opportunity to become collectors of toys in the future."
In the tide play market, 52TOYS, which positions itself as a "collectible toy" brand, set a single record for the next year with a financing of 400 million yuan. Suplay, AMAZING PANDA Panda Panda, ToyCity, Twelve Lightyear and other tide play brands also received capital support last year, according to the relevant media combing, the number of tide play industry investment in 2021 reached 31.
Is it a good path to move from blind boxes to "collectible toys"?
According to the daily economic news report, collectible toys, whether they are building blocks bears or KAWS, are slowly spreading from Hong Kong and Taiwan to the mainland market. Many artists in Hong Kong and Taiwan are playing, and the mainland market slowly does it after seeing it.
Photo: Bearbrick Handmade Source: JD flagship store product page
For collectible toys with collectible attributes, there has been a lot of controversy. Some people question its suspicion of speculation. Some investors and industry insiders have compared collectible toys to works of art, claiming that it is a natural phenomenon that the price of collectible toys as works of art is high.
The author believes that the essence of toys is still "fun", either fun and cute, or puzzle brain to improve hands-on ability. The so-called "collecting toys" are still the "concept and hype" of harvesting leeks. Artificial restrictions on issuance have caused scarcity, and in some trading platforms, there is often no shortage of pushers.
The value of the artwork lies in the artist's own creation, on the one hand, it has a high aesthetic value, and the other side is non-reproducible, just like the painter cannot paint two identical works. If the industrialized assembly line can be mass-produced in unlimited quantities, where are the so-called collectible toys?
3. The pan-entertainment of Bubble Mart
On January 11, there were media reports that Bubble Mart tested the waters of "theme parks".
Through its subsidiary, Beijing Bubble Mart Park Management Co., Ltd., Bubble Mart has reached a cooperation with Beijing Chaoyang Park Development and Operation Co., Ltd. Chaoyang Park will authorize Bubble Mart to use the "European Charm" project in the park and its surrounding streets and forests.
The person in charge of the bubble mart park project said that the feasibility study and concept design of the project have been completed and are in the stage of program design. At the same time, the park team is establishing cooperative relations with excellent suppliers with experience in the construction of Universal Studios or Disneyland, and is committed to building the project into a trendy cultural paradise that integrates tide play IP, cultural communication, immersive experience, leisure and entertainment.
Bubble Mart also continues to invest in some domestic animation movies to master some IP resources. At the beginning of 2020, he invested in "New God List: Nezha Reborn", and then invested in "White Snake 2: Green Snake Robbery", while testing the waters of film derivatives, launching a series of handmade and blind boxes.
In addition, the investment scope of Bubble Mart covers art galleries, Hanfu brands, trend buyers, secondary e-commerce, culture and art and other fields. In this regard, the company has said that IP ecology is the most important investment idea of Bubble Mart, and it maintains a high degree of attention to companies in the field of culture and art, especially to the national style IP of generation Z.
Previously, Bubble Mart's store was successfully opened at Shanghai Disneyland, and in September 2021, the first global concept store was opened at Universal Studios.
From anime and television to theme parks, Bubble Mart is obviously not wrong in this "pan-entertainment" direction. However, if you want to build an influential theme park in China, there is still a long way to go for Bubble Mart.
Statistics show that the investment of Universal Studios Beijing, which has been under construction for 20 years, including surrounding infrastructure, has exceeded 100 billion yuan, and the investment scale of Shanghai Disney Resort has also exceeded 100 billion yuan. Even if the domestic brand bear infestation behind the Huaqiang Fantawild, the long-term investment of the relevant main park is also at the level of tens of billions.
The future of Bubble Mart, the road is long, the road is long, and it will eventually be explored up and down.