Potash price increase thunder big rain point small? Maybe you can't stop the rumble of thunder

In just a few days, the potash market in early 2022 is really exciting! First up, then questioned thunder and rain, and now a new situation has emerged... First of all, most of the market expectations themselves are bullish, and the author is also (interested can look back at the "Preliminary Investigation of the Short-term and Long-term Trend of Potash Fertilizer" written in early December and the "2022 Potash Market Preliminary Judgment" issued during the New Year's Day holiday); secondly, the price decline in December is closely related to the temporary bearishness such as factors at the end of the year; third, the prices of urea and ammonium phosphate also showed a rise in the same period; fourth, it is uncertain whether the state reserve potash fertilizer continues to bid for the auction; finally, the price of the intervened Salt Lake Company suddenly rose sharply by 300 yuan / ton. As a result, after the return of New Year's Day, the price of potassium chloride rose rapidly, reaching 50-100 yuan / ton, and the individual shouting price was even higher.

　　However, on the one hand, the downstream market is not good, potassium sulfate, potassium nitrate and compound fertilizer and other markets are not ideal, the operating rate is not high, and some manufacturers have reserves in the early stage, just need to be temporarily limited; on the one hand, there is still no certain news about the large contract, after all, this is a very uncertain but very important link, but the market on the large contract (to) signed more and more rumors (some people say that it has been signed, some people say that it is about to sign, almost all rumors point to about 550 US dollars / ton, we do not know that there is really no wind and waves, On the one hand, the salt lake company has increased the price at the same time as increasing the amount of goods, the supply of goods is still tight these days, but in a few days there is a new batch of goods, although the market circulation price has risen, but most of them have returned to the high-end of the previous period, and there has been no obvious breakthrough; on the one hand, after a short period of throbbing and confusion, the market has gradually calmed down, and the expectation that it is difficult to have a big rise before the overall raw material fertilizer Spring Festival has gradually risen. Therefore, everyone slowly found that most of the original price increases were only shouted high, and the actual transaction price did not change much. In the potassium sulfate market, only some quotations have risen, and most of them have temporarily maintained stability.

　　In the end, is the big contract to be signed, and the price is not too high? In the end, will the bidding of the National Reserves continue, and will there be a source of low-cost goods? Can Lithuania allow Belarusian potash to continue to transit, or will Belarus have the capacity to find new and efficient export routes? In the end, when will Sinochem and Zhongnong be able to resume normal sales, and will Salt Lake Company be punished again? In the end is bullish and bearish, should I take the goods...? Just when the market is changing rapidly and everyone is entangled, everything above is still unknown, but the market has sent out new news: Luo Potassium will cancel the phased preferential policies due to limited inventory and combined with market changes. What's going on here?

　　It seems that the operation of the two major domestic potassium faucets is a bit contrary to the overall situation of guaranteeing supply and stabilizing prices! At present, the only thing that can be explained is: First, the market is the market, the enterprise is the enterprise, according to the current market environment, there is nothing wrong with the two price increases; secondly, the main factory that is interfered in is the factory, and the intermediate links are interfered with is limited, resulting in the downstream not getting benefits, and the enthusiasm of the upstream is hit, and there are hidden dangers in ensuring the stable price of supply; third, the guarantee of supply and stable price is one thing, two aspects, of which the guarantee of supply is obviously more important, and the stage results of stable price have been achieved in the front, although the downstream believes that it is still not low and the risk is still large. But in fact, such achievements are already very difficult, too hard to suppress may have the opposite effect, and no matter what, the fact is that the winter storage is still not good to start, the downstream seems to be immovable but in fact it is waiting to be fed, and then consider the epidemic, climate, Spring Festival and many other factors, and then let it go, let the spring use of fertilizer I am afraid that there will be a big problem, which has a significant impact on food security, so it is necessary to stimulate the winter storage to start.

　　Salt Lake rose a lot, but after all, it is a supplement, the market terminal price has not changed significantly, and the amount of goods has increased; Luo Potassium canceled the discount, but mainly involved in the settlement of the previous order with the agent, and it is understood that the various prices here are within the normal price range of the market. The price increase of potassium chloride is the price increase space of the market itself, and the adjustment of the faucet can only be said to be just right to stimulate the downstream wait-and-see nerves. At the same time, this is in line with the temporary increase in reserves and appropriate exports of nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers, which not only improves the enthusiasm of suppliers, but also stimulates the downstream demand to start, in the fertilizer supply and price stability should have entered the supply assurance link and delayed the progress of the dilemma, which may be the good intentions of the top.

　　At the beginning, the potash fertilizer in the spring market is a bullish expectation, and now it seems that the center of gravity and strategy above are also undergoing a positive change, so the downstream market should indeed put down the obsession of low prices and think about whether there will be a shortage of goods. At present, the domestic fertilizer price is at the absolute low end of the international market, and the factory does not have much pressure according to the comparison of market inventory, so the risk of winter storage is relatively small. In fact, the author has long put forward the problem of shifting from stable prices to supply assurance, and constantly suggests that the downstream should be properly stockpiled for potassium chloride. To tell the truth, the current price is taken again, from the perspective of profit margins, the meaning may not be too big, but there is no way, even if it does not rise, it will still be out of stock, so people who lack raw materials still grasp the car.

　　However, do not over-speculate. First, there is still a lot of uncertainty in the large contract itself, which is based on the international fertilizer price bottleneck and the long-term supply and demand situation of the worry, and second, to ensure that the supply and price stability is a whole, it is impossible to completely abandon the stable price to ensure supply, and the policy risk still exists.

　　(China Fertilizer Network Author Adu / Reviewer Che Yanhong)