HongQing teaches the bookmaker
The annual rings of history have galloped to 2022. In the new year, we will usher in the Beijing Winter Olympics and usher in the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. Looking at the world, the world situation will still be in a major change unprecedented in a century. Today I would like to make two points:
First, good wishes
(1) I wish the country a stronger prosperity
With the advancement of China's strategy of building a community with a shared future for mankind, more and more countries have seen that China is a trusted friend; China's economic recovery is currently at the forefront of the world, and this year's economic growth is expected to reach 5.6%; China, as the world's earliest country to get out of the epidemic and maintain economic growth, China will continue to demonstrate the dignity of a major country with an ancient civilization and its firm determination to safeguard national interests.
(ii) Wish the people greater happiness
Let the key hot issues that the people are concerned about be solved at an accelerated pace: gradually realize the popularization of compulsory education in high schools in education, let private schools and off-campus tutoring classes return to public schools, gradually implement university education for the whole people, so that all families can afford to go to school; medical care must never be commercialized, so that all people can afford to be sick; institutions at all levels must perform their duties and fulfill their responsibilities, truly do not forget their original intentions, and let the people have a place to speak, reason and make decisions; continuously strengthen infrastructure construction and improve the welfare of the whole people; in the process of aging in the country, Solve the problem of old-age care; severely crack down on all kinds of criminal acts that endanger society and the people, and severely punish all kinds of criminals and protective umbrellas.
Second, sober judgment
Regarding the national security situation in 2022, I make the following judgments:
(1) The epidemic in the world will still spread
Not long ago, the Aomi Kerong mutant strain ravaged Europe and the United States and other countries, and its virus was much stronger than that of previous generations of strains. However, some countries continue to go their separate ways and go their separate ways. China is not a paradise, as long as the epidemic does not completely disappear in the world, we cannot be left alone, it is impossible to completely eradicate, we must fight the epidemic for a long time.
(ii) The world economic situation will continue to deteriorate
International organizations predict that the average world economic growth rate this year will be only 2.4%. But the pace of recovery will be uneven; the current US debt is high, inflation, and although interest rate hikes are planned to start in the second quarter, its economic recovery is certainly not achievable.
(3) The game between major powers continues to intensify
Although the five countries issued a joint statement on the use of nuclear weapons on January 3, the prospects for implementation are not optimistic.
In May last year, the United States released the "2021-2030 U.S. Nuclear Forces Budget Investment" report, saying that it will invest $634 billion in the next decade; President Putin also said in April last year that "the proportion of modern equipment of the Russian military's nuclear forces will exceed 88%, and its new intercontinental missile "Salmatt" will also begin to be deployed this year; other nuclear countries and nuclear threshold countries are also stepping up the development of more advanced nuclear weapons with multiple launch platforms."
In order to divert the focus of domestic contradictions, the United States will continue to attack China politically under the pretext of human rights, continue to dilute China's influence economically, and "partially decouple" from China in the industrial chain and supply chain; judging that this year the United States and its allies will also send ships and planes to invade the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait to support "Taiwan independence" in various forms, and the Sino-US confrontation will exist for a long time.
The United States and britain will step up the construction of nuclear-powered submarines for Australia, the trilateral joint statement also announced the establishment of a trilateral security partnership, focusing on in-depth cooperation in networks, artificial intelligence, quantum technology, underwater attack and defense, etc. Australia has said that it will introduce a variety of long-range strike weapons, including tomahawk cruise missiles.
Around the competition for Ukraine, the United States has always opposed the approach of Europe and Russia to obstruct Russian-Ukrainian friendship, and is in a hair-trigger situation; the elections held by South Korea and the Philippines this year will have an important impact on the strategic pattern of Asia.
(4) The situation in the Taiwan Strait has become more acutely turbulent
2022 is an extremely important year for the situation in the Taiwan Strait, and will usher in a number of important anniversaries, such as the 50th anniversary of the signing of the Sino-US Shanghai Joint Communique, the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Japan, and the 30th anniversary of the cross-strait "1992 Talks" and other major international political events.
Taiwan will hold "nine-in-one" local elections, and the election results will further aggravate the division and evolution between the independence and reunification factions on the island; the DPP authorities and Taiwan independence forces will not change their acts of splitting the country.
We must pay close attention to the development and changes in the international situation, be fully prepared to take decisive measures against the Taiwan independence forces, and resolutely deal with security threats from all directions.
(Author: Professor, Doctoral Supervisor, enjoy special allowance of the State Council)
January 6, 2022