Dong Mingzhu is overconfident, how much responsibility should she bear for gree's dilemma?

Dong Mingzhu is optimistic and overconfident, and the risks she takes are far greater than she can realize on her own. Her willingness to take significant risks in times of crisis suggests that her optimism biases have played a role, even a leading role.

Believing she will succeed in the future, she maintains a positive mindset so that she can gather resources extensively to boost morale and increase her chances of winning. When actually acting, even if it's arrogant, optimism is a good thing.

Dong Mingzhu said on December 31, 2021: "Often others say that Dong Mingzhu brought red an Internet celebrity Meng Yutong, in fact, it is not me who brought her red, but I gave her a platform and opportunities. So after our young people go to society, you don't look at society with a complaining mood, don't always talk about because others don't give you a chance, in fact, everyone is equal in front of opportunities, the key is that you dare to challenge and dare to bear. In fact, her subtext is to take risks and stay optimistic. As a Fortune 500 company, there are many difficult difficulties that only a confident and even overconfident CEO can overcome.

Afterwards, Zhuge Liang treated Dong Mingzhu with prejudice

In 2021, Gree's stock price fell sharply, currently only half of the United States, investors said that Gree is not well managed, it is really nonsense. They don't know Gree, only that its stock is falling. This is the bias based on the results of the stock price, part of which is an afterthought, and part of which is the halo effect (because the stock price falls, it is considered that Gree is a bad company, and it is believed that Dong Mingzhu is not capable enough and is old. ）

This kind of hindsight is especially ruthless to decision-makers, Dong Mingzhu is to act as an agent for Gree investors, just like doctors are agents for patients, if the patient is cured, he is not grateful to the doctor, if he is cured, it is all the doctor's fault. If good decisions produce bad results, we blame those who make them, and those who make decisions that are only clearly seen as correct after the fact receive little praise. The worse the outcome, the more serious the hindsight bias.

Why do investors always blame Dong Mingzhu?

Because investors need to have a clear understanding of the factors that make a business succeed and fail, they need some information to help them understand these factors, even if the information is false and weakly correlated. In fact, gree is in trouble and Dong Mingzhu's relationship is not so big, she just carries the pot.

Whether the company is very successful or not, the difference between them is largely determined by whether the company is lucky or not. Because of the unfathomable factor, it is impossible for us to establish any regular patterns.

We tend to try to explain these observations in terms of causality: perhaps successful companies become complacent, while less successful companies work harder. But it was actually because of good luck that the company was better than the others, and now it is only the mean reversion that brings the company back to a level close to that of the others.

Investors just need a full story

Logical coherence gives confidence, while the subjective confidence we exhibit in our opinions suggests that coherence is built into our brains. The quantity and quality of evidence is irrelevant, and even if they are very weak, they can construct a coherent story. We have little evidence to justify some of the most important beliefs, and we do so simply because the masses hold the same view or we trust and respect it.

The story of a company's success or failure resonates with the reader by providing what the human brain needs, which in this case refers to simple information about success or failure that indicates why, while ignoring the decisive force of luck and the inevitable regression of means.

These stories evoke and maintain the illusion of understanding, while giving investors ideas that have little lasting value, but investors are willing to believe them.