Two positive signs – Dowda Investment Notes

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Source: WeChat public account "Daoda number" (WeChat public number ID: daoda1997)

Although the large-cap index today is falling, it is bottoming out, individual stocks rise more and fall less, the median rise and fall of individual stocks in the two cities is up 0.56%, some track stocks have ushered in a rebound, everyone's mood may be better.

There were some positive phenomena on the plate, and wanted to talk to his friends.

First of all, I think everyone knows that the OVERNIGHT US stock market fell sharply. In particular, the NASDAQ fell directly by 3.34%, and technology stocks suffered a heavy setback. It is also very interesting to say that when Apple broke the $1 trillion and $2 trillion marks twice before, the U.S. stock market has ushered in a wave of adjustments of no small margin, I don't know if this time will be a coincidence again?

Last night's sharp decline in US stocks was mainly related to the minutes of the December monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve. This chronicle is more hawkish than the previous one, not only suggesting the need for a sharper rate hike earlier than expected, but also suggesting that the balance sheet may also be reduced faster. The Fed tightened monetary policy in everyone's expectations, but it was worse than expected, and the US stock market panicked as soon as it "listened" and directly "lay down".

The sharp decline in the US stock market is obviously putting pressure on the A-shares that have been "stuffy" for two consecutive days, and it is not surprising that the index is low. However, from the performance of today's market, A shares still withstood the pressure, and bottoming out is a relatively good phenomenon.

Another good phenomenon today is that there is a plate effect. From the perspective of the rise and fall of the plate, in addition to the concept of Helicobacter pylori and the concept of ice and snow industry stimulated by the news, the new and old infrastructure has risen with "steady growth". China Power Construction has risen and stopped, driving the strengthening of the large infrastructure sector, and China Communications Construction, Shandong Road and Bridge, China Railway Construction, Chongqing Construction Engineering and other industries have risen in the front.

If the market is to bottom out, or to go well, it is necessary to have a plate effect and go out of a main line, which is the basis for the market to go well. And this main line must also be recognized by most people in the market, whether it is a policy or a technical aspect of funds, it must be supported.

Of course, there are still worries. The market is worried about the downward pressure on the RMB exchange rate, because once the local currency weakens, the inflow of foreign capital will slow down, the stock market, especially the northbound funds, the inflow rate will slow down or even begin to flow out, and the reduction of funds will put the core assets and track stocks under pressure. This bearishness needs to be further observed.

In the last two or three days, two articles have caught Dago's attention. First, Han Wenxiu, deputy director in charge of daily work in the office of the Central Financial and Economic Commission, wrote that all regions and departments must shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macroeconomy, which is not only an economic issue, but also a political issue. Second, the Financial Times, which is in charge of the central bank, issued an article saying that enterprises should deal with the risk of RMB depreciation brought about by the "four difference changes". For the risk of RMB depreciation, four major reasons are also listed, one is the narrowing of the interest rate differential between local and foreign currencies, the second is the change of the economic growth gap, the third is the narrowing of the foreign trade gap, and the fourth is the reversal of the risk expectation difference.

The article prompts enterprises, especially importing enterprises and borrowing foreign debt enterprises, to establish a risk-neutral concept, effectively hedge exchange rate risks, and beware of losses caused by exchange rate depreciation. Financial institutions should actively provide exchange rate hedging services for enterprises and reduce the cost of exchange rate hedging for small and medium-sized enterprises.

I remembered that the previous chairman of the CSRC, Yi Huiman, set the tone for the work in 2022: in 2022, the work of the CSRC will be carried out around the two keywords of "steady word" and "reform attack". In Dago's view, in fact, this is also a kind of precaution. Since there are already expectations, there is no need to worry about the sky.

As for worrying about the pressure caused by the US stock market on A shares, this impact is actually short-term. The Fed's policy is more in the service of the economy, and the US stock market can not hold back the Fed's sharp correction, maybe the Fed will soon come out and soften. The US stock market itself has risen a lot, even if it is adjusted, the probability of partial shock is relatively high.

The two positive phenomena in the market have been discussed earlier, which are conducive to the recovery of sentiment, but it cannot be asserted that the market has bottomed out, and it is better to be cautious in operation. Remember the positive feedback that talked about earlier? Friends who have entered the market today, can not immediately add the position, to see whether the chips at the bottom of this time will be covered, if the profit is good, it is not too late to add the code.

The current hot spots are still concentrated on Traditional Chinese medicine and cloud universes, and the pullback is still an opportunity to look at. In addition, also wants to mention hydrogen energy, many companies in the ice and snow industry and hydrogen energy are closely related, hydrogen energy is also the category of new energy, the increase is far less than other new energy. There is still a month is the Winter Olympics, hydrogen energy superimposed ice and snow industry theme, or worth paying attention to.

Starting next week, the disclosure of annual report forecasts will gradually increase. That is to say, we should also pay attention to companies or industries with good annual report forecasts, after all, performance speculation is also a tradition of A shares.

(Zhang Daoda)

According to the latest regulations of the relevant state departments, this note does not involve any operational suggestions, and the risk of entering the market is at your own risk.

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