Source: Patch One Knife
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The presidential residence caught fire and gunshots rang out, the Almaty Municipal Prosecutor's Office building was burned, the government building was broken down, some 300 businesses were destroyed, 137 police officers were injured...
Cities such as Almaty in Kazakhstan are witnessing one of the largest rallies and marches since independence.
At the same time, Kazakh President Tokayev also signed a presidential decree approving the resignation of the government and declared a state of emergency in Mangistaw Oblast, the city of Almaty and the capital, Nur-Sultan. He also made a televised speech calling on the people to remain sane and not to be seduced by domestic and foreign forces and not to listen to provocative and inflammatory remarks intended to undermine social stability and unity.
What happened to Kazakhstan, which celebrated its 30th independence anniversary on the 16th of last month?
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The protests, which first began in the town of Zanazun in the western region of Mangerstao, were caused by local dissatisfaction with the increase in liquefied gas prices.
Previously, the Kazakh government issued regulations that from January 1, the price of liquefied gas will be raised from 60 tenge (about 0.88 yuan) per liter to 120 tenge from car filling stations in Mangistau Oblast.
Dissatisfied with the price of liquefied gas, people began to rally and march, demanding that the government raise prices. The rally quickly attracted the attention of the Kazakh government, and government representatives and officials from the Ministry of Energy immediately rushed to the area and tentatively promised to lower the price of liquefied gas and release the arrested marchers.
However, the demonstrations quickly spread to Mangistau and other parts of western Kazakhstan, including Aktau, the provincial center, as well as Almaty and the national capital, Nur-Sultan.
Since the 3rd, many new media accounts have begun to encourage people to take to the streets for a large parade, and the demands for rallies have shifted from protesting against the increase in the price of liquefied gas at the beginning to more political demands such as pressure on the government to improve national treatment and punish corrupt officials.
The speed with which the protests spread has surprised even some Western media and observers.
Moreover, after the Kazakh government promised on the 4th to reduce the price of liquefied gas to less than the previous price of 50 tenge per liter (less than half of the market price) and released the arrested demonstrators, a large-scale rally broke out again in Almaty, Kazakhstan's largest city, that night, and tens of thousands of people took to the streets.
Things are also moving in the direction of becoming more radical and more violent.
On the 5th, demonstrators clashed with the police in the city center, and some protesters armed with sticks beat the police. According to the news released by the Information Bureau of the Ministry of Internal Affairs on the 5th, the riots in many places have caused 95 internal affairs personnel to be injured, and a total of more than 200 people have been arrested for violating public order.
Thousands of protesters also tried to break into the Almaty City Hall building, where gunfire could reportedly be heard. In addition, fires broke out at the Presidential Residence and the Municipal Prosecutor's Office building.
The almaty police chief said 120 cars in the city were burned and 500 civilians, including women and the elderly, were beaten as a result of the actions of "extremist groups" .
According to the Zakon.kz website, about 300 businesses, including shops and public catering facilities, suffered losses in the riots in the Kazakh city of Almaty.
Almaty Deputy Mayor Babakumaroov told the Kazakhstan branch of the Satellite News Agency: "Almaty municipal government staff are currently safe and public servants are performing their duties under a state of emergency. Urban life is secure and the municipal department is operating uninterruptedly. Heating, gas supply and power supply are normal. Unfortunately, we have seen acts of radicalism and extremism, and attacks on the city government are a new attack by radicals. ”
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Since the protests, the Government of Kazakhstan has been trying to bring the situation under control.
On the 5th local time, Kazakh President Tokayev signed a presidential decree approving the resignation of the government and declared a state of emergency in Mangistaw Oblast, Almaty City and the capital Nur-Sultan.
On the same day, Tokayev also presided over a meeting of the state on socio-economic issues, at which a number of measures aimed at stabilizing the situation were adopted.
According to the information released on the official website of the Kazakh Presidential Office, Tokayev pointed out at the meeting that one of the most important tasks of the state administration at this stage is to control inflation. The anti-monopoly authorities should implement a 180-day state regulation of liquefied gas and grain prices, and the maximum price of liquefied gas in various places should not be higher than the price at the end of last year, reducing the price of liquefied gas in Mangistao to 50 tenge per liter.
Tokayev instructed that the reform of the liquefied gas system should be accelerated and the task of building a liquefied gas processing plant in the Mangistao Oblast should be completed as soon as possible. In addition, the government should postpone the entry of liquefied gas into electronic trading platforms and exchanges for one year, during which time it is necessary to seriously study and formulate a regulatory legal framework to ensure the transparent operation of trading platforms and prevent sharp price increases.
Tokayev also made a televised speech calling on the people to remain sane, not to be seduced by forces at home and abroad, not to listen to provocative and inflammatory remarks intended to undermine social stability and unity, and that any attack on civilian facilities and military institutions is illegal. He said that Kazakhstan did not need conflict, but rather mutual trust and dialogue.
On the evening of the 5th, Tokayev once again addressed the people of the whole country, saying that he intended to stay in the capital and be with the people during the riots. From today, he will serve as chairman of the National Security Council of Kazakhstan and intends to take drastic measures against violators of the demonstrations.
Regarding the current situation in Kazakhstan, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on the 5th that Russia hopes that Kazakhstan will normalize the situation as soon as possible through dialogue. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the Kazakh government will solve internal problems on its own, and external interference is unacceptable.
The Russian State Duma lawmakers reminded that the West may use the current unstable situation in Kazakhstan through non-governmental organizations to achieve its own ulterior motives.
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What is the next step in the situation in Kazakhstan?
Yang Jin, deputy director of the Central Asia Research Office of the Russian Institute of Eastern European and Central Asian Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told "Making Up a Knife" that according to the current reports, the situation should be controllable on the whole, and the consequences of "subversion of the regime" speculated by some Western media are unlikely.
Yang Jin believes that there are three main reasons:
First, from the perspective of the majority of public opinion in Kazakhstan, it is not yet to the point where it is necessary to change the government or the top ruler.
Kazakhstan is a regional power in Central Asia, and its domestic economic situation is still good. According to the data released by the Ministry of National Economy of Kazakhstan at the end of last year, in 2021, despite the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and epidemic prevention restrictions, the Kazakh economy still maintained a certain growth rate. From January to November, Kazakhstan's GDP growth rate reached 3.8%, the service industry accelerated its recovery, the real economic sector maintained growth, the export acceleration led to the continuous expansion of the trade surplus, and the investment enthusiasm of the non-oil industry continued to increase.
Second, the main reason for the riots that caused the outbreak of riots in many cities in Kazakhstan is still some people's dissatisfaction with the rise in the price of liquefied gas.
This situation has an international background, the recent price of liquefied gas in Europe has been rising, and the price of commodities, especially energy products, has risen internationally. From the perspective of Kazakhstan, there are indeed some risks in raising prices at this time, because due to the impact of the domestic epidemic, the economic income of some people in Kazakhstan has declined, and there is inflation in the world, even the inflation level of the United States has reached a historical high, so Kazakhstan is no exception. In this case, the government's increase in the price of liquefied gas may make the psychology of some people unbearable.
Thirdly, we should also look at the other factors that may be behind the current large-scale unrest in Kazakhstan, especially the role played by those non-governmental organizations.
Whether these NGOs have other foreign backgrounds, this possibility cannot be ruled out. It is well known that the Central Asian countries have achieved national transformation after independence, and most of them have adopted relatively liberal policies in the management of non-governmental organizations, allowing them to exist legally, including foreign non-governmental organizations. Of course, in order to overcome the chaos caused by the proliferation of foreign NGOs, some countries have restricted their activities at the legislative level, such as Kazakhstan's promulgation of the NGO Law, which makes detailed provisions on the registration, funding, management and activities of foreign NGOs. Even so, U.S. and Western NGOs have always found legal space to use to keep their activities on the margins.
Teacher Yang believes that from a comprehensive point of view, the continuation of the epidemic has made many people's psychology have a continuous sense of depression, and real life will also bring various pressures. Then, when this sentiment hits a flashpoint, a catharsis, from Kazakhstan, the price of liquefied gas rises, it may become the spark that ignites the haystack.
However, the Kazakh president has now issued an order to enter a state of emergency, imposed a curfew, and the government has resigned as a result. This is actually a manifestation of the Kazakh leadership echoing the will of the people, if the Kazakh elite is coordinated, there will be no regime subversion in Kazakhstan as a whole.
At the same time, Teacher Yang Jin also reminded that the role played by NGOs in the riots is worth vigilance. Although there is no direct evidence behind this that their activities are remotely controlled by foreign forces, some of the funds should come from external support.
Judging from the square movement in Ukraine that year, some people in the riots would shout slogans with political elements, which was the routine of the color revolution. This time it also appeared in Kazakhstan, where it is said that during the protests someone shouted the slogan "Nazarbayev withdraws from the center of power".
The current situation is complex, and there have been similar protests and riots in Kyrgyzstan, Belarus, Ukraine, and Georgia in Central Asia, with some countries surviving and some being color revolutionized.
In fact, Kazakhstan has always been a stable regional power in Central Asia, and we believe that Kazakhstan's politicians have the political wisdom and courage to control the current situation.