In 2022, ammonium phosphorus opportunities and challenges coexist

The market for ammonium at the beginning of the year is still light, but before or after the Spring Festival, ammonium is expected to turn over and start again. Diammonium quotations have risen since the end of last year, and the industry has sufficient confidence in diammonium? In fact, for ammonium phosphate, opportunities and challenges coexist in 2022, and the positive factors are worth looking forward to, but the bearish problem should still be paid attention to.

　　The positive factors are as follows:

　　First of all, the operating rate of ammonium phosphate enterprises remained relatively low. Due to the backlog of certain inventory nearby enterprises at the end of 2021, some ammonium enterprises stop production and maintenance, the overall operating rate is 3-40%, and the operating rate of ammonium in the beginning of 2022 should still be maintained at a low level, with the conversion of market demand, enterprises will appropriately convert to the production and sales of better ammonium varieties, will not be blindly full, and in a certain period of time, there may be tight prices of raw materials and environmental protection inspections, etc., which will make enterprises restrict the start of work to a certain extent. The overall operating rate of diammonium does not change much, the annual maintenance period is relatively fixed, and in the short term, the state will not fully liberalize the export of diammonium, and it is expected that the operating rate will remain at a relatively low level in 2022.

　　Secondly, the raw material sulfur is running at a high level, and the cost support for diammonium is acceptable. For specific details, please pay attention to the china fertilizer network member area.

　　Again, the upgrading and transformation of phosphate. Ammonium phosphate in the past two years through the merger and reorganization of large factories, ammonium phosphate eliminated part of the backward production capacity, and phosphate products are also being upgraded, through market feedback learned that lithium iron phosphate and fine phosphorus chemical enterprises gradually increased, and at this stage ammonium phosphate enterprises still have plans to transform and upgrade in the later stage, with the gradual withdrawal of production capacity, ammonium phosphate capacity supply pressure will be reduced.

　　Finally, export restrictions are expected to ease. There is news that the first few months of 2022 ammonium phosphate exports are expected to be liberalized, in fact, in recent months, the various ammonium phosphate factories have been implementing export orders, but the amount is not large, enterprises in the case of ensuring sufficient domestic supply, allowing the appropriate amount of export, I heard that each enterprise has a certain export quota, but still need to wait for the end of the legal inspection, in fact, the state is not to prevent enterprises from exporting profits, the premise is to ensure the domestic market, with the specific conditions of the domestic market The country will introduce policies in a timely manner.

　　The bearish factors are as follows:

　　First, the impact of policy. A series of policies to "ensure supply and stable price" have a certain impact on the price of diammonium to a certain extent, the original restrictions on exports, domestic demand and other factors have made the price of diammonium unstable, coupled with the relatively strong cost of raw materials, diammonium pressure is larger, and later the state has introduced to ensure that ammonium phosphate starts to reach more than 70%, in the case of the actual operating rate of near 40%, may increase the pressure of diammonium enterprises, for the stability of diammonium prices to bring a certain negative impact. There is also a certain impact on the ammonium market, which is mainly used as raw material fertilizer, but it is not too obvious, but if it is mandatory to let the operating rate of an ammonium enterprise reach a higher level, in the case of weak demand, there is indeed a certain negative impact on an ammonium.

　　Second, the delay in demand may cause downstream procurement of ammonium phosphate to fall into a "vicious circle". The delay of winter storage demand in 2021 may delay the overall delay of each season in 2022, the demand for winter storage has not arrived, but the grass-roots gap is indeed large, which will make the demand for spring 2022 short, the short-term supply shortage is not a good thing, may discourage some downstream procurement of ammonium phosphate, and then the demand has recovered flat, and the downstream may choose other varieties to replace ammonium phosphate or lose interest in purchasing ammonium phosphate.

　　Third, domestic sulfuric acid and other prices are down, liquid ammonia prices are unstable, and the cost support for ammonium phosphate is not strong. Although the price of sulfur is running at a high level, but the price of sulfuric acid and other prices have declined, which may continue to 2022 for a long time, in December 2021, yunnan and other places in the situation of sulfuric acid tight prices have been alleviated to a certain extent, the supply of goods from other provinces has entered, the supply has increased, the price has declined, it is expected that 2022 may still continue this situation, sulfuric acid in Hubei and other places is still running at a low level, and the sulfuric acid price as a raw material for ammonium phosphate should not rise significantly for the time being under the regulation of national policies and other regulations. Liquid ammonia prices are unstable due to factors such as the urea market and their own supply, and this situation will continue in 2022.

　　In summary, an ammonium at the beginning of the year continued the light momentum, but the later is expected to turn over, diammonium quotation to rise to wait for the market, although the transaction may continue in the early stage, but the momentum is good, demand is expected to improve, look forward to 2022 ammonium phosphorus should have a relatively good performance.　　(China Fertilizer Network Author: Zhao Hongye / Reviewer: Wu Wenchao)