Recently, Musk, a big-mouthed madman, once again uttered amazing words.
When asked by some netizens when the next financial crisis will be, Musk replied on social platforms: "Predicting the macro economy is very challenging, my intuition is that it may be in the spring or summer of 2022, but not later than 2023."
Beyond that, Musk said that "if history can serve as a guide, not many people will survive the next recession."
Although Musk has always been known for his wild words, and in the past year, he likes to set off a monstrous wave in the virtual currency market at every turn, and there is a serious suspicion of public opinion manipulation of the market, which makes many passers-by greatly reduce their perception of it.
Before 2018, I still admired Musk as a doer, a tech maniac.
However, since he began to preach virtual currency like crazy and cut leeks with the help of public opinion, I have been greatly disgusted by it.
In particular, before the explosion of the star chain two satellites twice approached our space station, and even threatened the life safety of our astronauts.
This makes me quite disgusted with Musk already.
Musk's image in my mind is not only a doer, a technology maniac, but also a spokesman for American capital and a trader for the US military.
Not to mention how we feel about Musk, though.
But what Musk says is also a very important force in the current US capital.
Moreover, Musk has many followers in the United States and even the world, and horse fans can be said to be all over the world, so his words and deeds, even if they are crazy, have some information that can be worthy of people's attention.
As for whether there will be a worldwide financial crisis in 2022, there are more and more speculations.
Anyone who has been reading my article in the early days should know that I first wrote 3 10,000-word articles in August 2019 to systematically analyze the possibility of a future world economic crisis.
At that time, I also predicted that with January 2020 as the central axis, the possibility of a world economic crisis in the three-month period before and after was increasing.
Later, in March 2020, the global financial market crashed, and the European and American stock markets fell by more than 35% in just a dozen days, allowing us to see the epic scene of four consecutive circuit breakers in the US stock market.
This made me think that the world economic crisis had completely erupted.
However, in order to save the completely collapsed financial markets and solve the liquidity crisis, on March 20, 2020, the Fed launched the ultimate move of unlimited printing.
Subsequently, the Fed printed $3 trillion in just one month, and in the past two years, it has printed a total of $4.5 trillion, injecting massive liquidity into global financial markets.
Under such crazy printing, the global stock market is revived, which also made the "world economic crisis" that I predicted at the time be forcibly postponed by the Federal Reserve, and I was also beaten in the face in 2020, which also made me experience a big ups and downs at that time.
However, the Fed's crazy printing of money is not without side effects.
The current runaway global inflation is the most direct side effect of the Fed's crazy printing of money.
Because, the global energy price soared, raw material prices soared, there are Wall Street capital, with a huge amount of cheap dollars crazy to take advantage of the speculation traces.
Therefore, in the past two years, the global stock market has plunged by 35%, and the index has doubled from the low point, so the market that has soared and plummeted is indeed unhealthy.
For example, the Nasdaq Composite Index also fell by 30% in March 2020, but after the Fed printed unlimited money, the Nasdaq rose from the low of 6631 to the highest 16,200 points, which is up 144%.
In addition to the financial stock market, the global commodity market also has many roller coasters of violent fluctuations.
For example, European natural gas has recently appeared in such a roller coaster market.
Such commodities actually double their sharp rises and doubles at every turn, and when they fall, they are often cut off, and the phenomenon of crazy speculation is constantly emerging.
Some of our domestic commodities, such as thermal coal prices, have also appeared in the past few months.
International crude oil prices, the king of commodities, have also fluctuated wildly over the past two years.
In April 2020, there was an epic negative oil price, and Wall Street capital took the opportunity to kill us.
But soon oil prices also rebounded sharply under the blessing of the Fed's crazy printing of money, and Russia and Saudi Arabia also took the opportunity to tacitly not fight an oil price war, and in turn began to jointly maintain oil prices.
Oil prices also quickly rebounded from negative oil prices to a recent high of $80 and are still hovering around $70.
International financial markets have risen and fallen sharply in the past two years, and under the unprecedented easing created by the Fed's crazy printing of money, there has been a serious asset bubble.
These problems are all side effects of the Fed's big printing of money.
The more serious problem facing the United States now is that they do not know how to "land" it.
When I made an annual outlook for 2022 the day before yesterday, I mentioned that the key word I distilled for 2022 was "landing".
This landing posture is very diverse.
It can land smoothly or touch the ground with your face after puncturing the foam.
The Fed's crazy big printing of money this time, some of the force is too strong, resulting in the current "water is difficult to collect", once the collection can easily trigger huge financial turmoil.
At present, the Fed is still only reducing its purchase of bonds, and it is still printing money, but the faucet is slightly smaller.
By March this year, the Fed completed the reduction of bond purchases, completely shutting down the faucet.
The next step of interest rate hikes and balance sheet reductions is the time to really test the current global asset price bubble.
A rate hike may be better at the beginning, and the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates significantly in one go.
So the most critical thing is to see whether the Fed will shrink its balance sheet.
Shrinking the table is the big killer.
In 2018, it was the Fed's sharp balance sheet reduction that led to the collapse of global asset prices.
At present, the global financial market is more sensitive, slightly windy, easy to have violent fluctuations, and is not in a relatively healthy state.
So I think that the current is in the final musical acceleration sprint stage of drumming.
This year's music suddenly stopped, and the possibility of this "drumming and passing flowers" landing on the ground is still relatively large.
From this point of view, Musk's "intuitive" statement may be in the spring or summer of 2022, but not later than 2023, which still has some truth, obviously not that Musk is really just saying such things intuitively.
Of course, Musk is also a well-known madman, like to speak amazingly, although he often realizes some of the big words he says, but most of the big words he says are not realized.
It's just that people tend to only remember some of the things he's achieved, which is also a kind of "survivor bias".
Therefore, everyone should not be completely blind just because Musk said such a thing, or think and judge independently.
After I was punched in the face by the Fed in 2020, there was less mention of the possibility of a world economic crisis throughout 2021.
It's not that I don't think the world economic crisis is going to break out.
Just considering the effect of the Fed's unlimited printing of money, I think at least until the Fed's faucet is closed, this drumming music may stop suddenly.
Therefore, I also revised in 2020, believing that the world economic crisis may be postponed to 2-3 years after being forcibly postponed by the Federal Reserve.
That is, from 2022 to 2023, it is indeed quite likely that a world economic crisis will break out.
In particular, after the Fed closes the faucet in 2022, it is possible to use the financial crisis in the United States as a trigger to further expand into a world economic crisis.
This conduction path may also be reversed.
It is the big variable of the epidemic, there are still too many uncertainties.
For example, Aomi Kerong, a highly contagious and extremely unstable mutant strain, under the current massive infection base, the subsequent emergence of new mutations is almost nothing suspenseful.
So the later mutation is according to people's expectations of "influenza", or the virus in the process of playing with vaccines, but mutated more threatening.
This is hard to predict.
If the impact of the epidemic continues for 1-2 years, it may also be triggered by a world recession to burst the global asset price bubble and trigger a financial crisis.
Regardless of the conduction path.
I think that the Fed's unlimited printing of money in 2020 only forcibly postponed the world economic crisis that has already erupted.
But this only forcibly blows the debt crisis and asset bubble bigger, and it also means that if the world economic crisis breaks out in the future, it will be more powerful and more difficult to clean up.
The Fed's irresponsibility lies in its attempt to kidnap the world, blindly blowing the asset bubble to the limit, without considering the "landing posture".
This will lead to the United States if this bubble is punctured this year, the landing posture will be more ugly, fall nose blue face swollen not to mention, may also fall a broken hand and foot, seriously injured and half disabled.
The chart below shows the direction of the total market capitalization of global stock markets against the price of Fed assets.
It can be seen that the current total market value of the global stock market is basically the Fed's crazy printing of money and blowing up.
The stock market is not so much a barometer of the economy as it is a barometer of money.
Therefore, in the case of the Fed's relatively clear monetary turn expectations, Wall Street elites and executives have begun to honestly reduce their holdings and run.
More famously, Musk has reduced his holdings by a total of $15 billion in the past two months, which is known as paying taxes.
In fact, Musk reduced his holdings in this record first, and then ran out to sell the "financial crisis" theory, which is quite a bit of his previous public opinion to manipulate the virtual currency market.
According to InsiderScore, 48 U.S. executives sold more than $200 million in stock this year, about four times the average from 2016 to 2020.
In addition to Musk, these executives include Amazon founder Bezos, Microsoft CEO Nadella, Estée Lauder heir Lauder, and Google co-founders Page and Brin.
In addition, according to media reports, among the 500 stocks of S&P, "insiders" with insider information about the company sold a record $63.5 billion of shares from January to the end of November this year, an increase of 50% year-on-year. Among them, technology industry executives sold $41 billion in stocks in the same period, an increase of more than one-third year-on-year, followed by the financial industry.
In addition, because the Fed's crazy big money printing has created an unprecedented ultra-loose environment, which makes these companies continue to issue bonds for financing, and then most of the money raised is used to buy back their own company stocks and write off, to further inflate the asset price bubble.
Goldman Sachs noted that the number of stock buybacks that have been executed this year is staggering, between $885 billion and $925 billion, compared to just $577 billion last year.
On the one hand, the executives of American capital continue to sell and sell, reducing their holdings and cashing out.
On the other side are the companies managed by these executives, constantly issuing bonds to buy and buy back, boosting the company's stock price.
This doesn't look like a normal phenomenon anyway.
Only when the tide has faded does it know who is swimming naked and who is wearing clothes.
The tide in the United States has faded, and I am afraid that after people landed, they found that they were "swimming naked".
Author of this article: Star Talk White.
I write analytical articles every day.
Originality is not easy, thanks for the appreciation and attention support!