More than a month after South Africa reported the Omiljung mutant strain, the global medical community is still inconclusive, and preliminary studies have shown that this strain with amazing spread seems to be "milder" than Derta. On 31 December 2021, the UK Health Security Agency released a new study saying that the risk of hospitalization after infection with the Omiljung strain was lower, about one-third of the infection with delta strains.
However, the UK is still mired in the COVID-19 tsunami, with more than 180,000 new confirmed cases per day. On 29 December, WHO's head of COVID-19, Abdi Mahamud, noted that so far, the Omilon variant has mainly infected young people, who usually do not develop too severe diseases. However, it is too early to conclude that the Amicoreon variant is milder than the past variants.
The UK Health Security Agency publishes the report
The analysis, published by the UK Health Safety Service, in collaboration with the Department of Biostatistics of the University of Cambridge Medical Research Council, analysed positive COVID-19 cases tested between 22 November and 26 December, including 528,000 (528176) cases of infection with the Omikejong variant and 573,000 (573012) cases of infection with the Delta variant.
According to the UK Health Security Agency, classification based on the date of testing and area of residence, and further segmentation based on age, sex, ethnicity, local poverty, international travel, vaccination status, found that the risk of emergency treatment or hospitalization of the Omilkeron variant was half that of the Delta variant, and the risk of hospitalization of the Omiljung variant was about one-third of that of the Delta variant.
In addition, the study said that after receiving 3 doses of the vaccine, the risk of hospitalization after infection with the Omiljung variant was reduced by 81%.
Previously, Imperial College London's COVID-19 response team also released the latest surveillance results on December 22, which analyzed all 56,000 "Omikeron" cases and 269,000 "Delta" cases in the past two weeks, and the data showed that the hospitalization rate of "Omikeron" cases was 20% lower than that of cases infected with "Delta" virus, and the long-term hospitalization rate (hospitalization of one night or more) was 40% to 45%.
Although the proportion of hospitalizations has decreased, the situation in the UK remains severe as confirmed cases surge, with confirmed cases on the rise. According to the UK Health Security Agency, as of December 31, 2021, the number of new confirmed cases in the UK exceeded 180,000, and the total number of cases on the 7th exceeded 1.05 million, an increase of 48.7% compared with last week. Among them, as of 25 December, the number of cases infected with the Ami kerong variant has accounted for 78% of all cases.
According to the British "Guardian" report on December 31, according to the latest estimates of the British National Bureau of Statistics, in the week ending December 23, about one in every 25 people in the United Kingdom was positive for new crown, which is equivalent to a total of 2.0247 million people infected with new crown.
The proportion of different mutated strains
The rising number of cases is putting enormous pressure on the UK health system. Susan Hopkins, chief medical adviser to the Health Security Agency, said: "It is too early to draw conclusions about the risk of hospitalisation, and the stronger spread of Omilon, coupled with the increasing number of people diagnosed in the UK over the age of 60, means that the UK healthcare system is likely to be under enormous pressure in the coming weeks." ”
According to a data model released by the University of Warwick in the United Kingdom on December 30, even if the severity of the Aumechjong strain is only 50% of the Delta strain, in January, the United Kingdom will still usher in a peak of 1.4 million infections confirmed every day, with about 9,300 to 21,300 people hospitalized and 1,800 to 4,770 deaths every day.
"If [this model] is true, it means that in a few weeks the NHS will be under tremendous new pressure." Christina Pagel, director of the Clinical Operations Research Unit at University College London, said.
Regarding the Omikejung mutant strain, the medical community is still inconclusive. On 24 December, according to the United Nations website, WHO said that while data from earlier studies in South Africa, the United Kingdom and Denmark suggested that the risk of hospitalization was lower than that of Delta, data on the clinical severity of the disease caused by Omiqueron remained limited. For example, early data reported in Scotland showed that Omexon resulted in two-thirds lower hospitalization rates than Delta. In Denmark, 0.6% of cases infected with Omikejong require hospitalization, while the hospitalization rate for cases infected with other variant strains is 1.6%.
But WHO also notes that hospitalization rates are only one measure of clinical severity, along with the need for oxygen, respirator use, and mortality. But the current data are not enough to determine the clinical severity of Omi kerong.
On 29 December, WHO's head of COVID-19, Abdi Mahamud, noted that so far, the Omilon variant has mainly infected young people, who usually do not develop too severe diseases. However, it is too early to conclude that the Amicoreon variant is milder than the past variants. "We all want the disease to be milder, but so far it has affected young people. How it performs in the elderly and vulnerable populations, we don't yet know. ”
This article is an exclusive manuscript of the Observer Network and may not be reproduced without authorization.