Second Head of State Talks in the Month Russia and the United States still have a difficult time to break the ice

Following the December 7 video meeting, Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Joe Biden held telephone talks on the evening of December 30, Moscow time, and clashed again on issues such as tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

Analysts believe that recently, around the situation in Ukraine and other issues, the Russian side has taken the initiative to attack, showing a firm position on security issues and a posture of seeking dialogue. At present, although the Us side has expressed concerns about Russia's security concerns, considering that it is difficult to make substantive changes in the established policies of the United States and Europe towards Russia, a series of dialogues on security affairs between Russia and the United States and europe scheduled for January 2022 will be full of challenges, and it will be difficult for Russia and the West to improve relations or make a fundamental breakthrough.

Keep the conversation going

During the approximately 50-minute call, Russian and U.S. leaders reportedly warned each other, but both agreed that dialogue needed to be maintained to resolve the issue.

White House spokesman Psaki said in a statement after the call that Biden expressed support for a diplomatic dialogue to resolve the issue, including the U.S.-Russia Bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue that begins early next year, the NATO dialogue through the NATO-Russia Council, and the dialogue under the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). But Biden reiterated: "These conversations can only make substantial progress in an environment where the situation is cooling down, not escalating." ”

Russian presidential assistant Ushakov said at the end of the call that the two heads of state had a rich and substantive communication, and the Russian side expressed satisfaction with this. This call has created good conditions for the upcoming Russian-US dialogue on security affairs to be held in Geneva, Switzerland.

Zabarov, First Deputy Chairman of the International Affairs Committee of the Committee of the Russian Federation (the upper house of parliament), believes that the two heads of state have taken this opportunity to express their respective positions on a number of issues, which will enable the negotiating teams of the two sides to continue their follow-up work in accordance with the instructions of the leaders.

Stand firm

Recently, Russia's relations with the United States and other Western countries have continued to be tense over the Ukraine issue. The United States and Ukraine continue to play up the threat of Russian "invasion", while the Russian side emphasizes that the situation continues to deteriorate because NATO continues to squeeze Russia's security space.

In order to ease the tension, Russia took the initiative to attack. On December 10, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the dialogue with the United States and other Western countries on security guarantees, asking the United States and NATO to provide legal guarantees to rule out the possibility of further eastward expansion of NATO. On December 15, Russia submitted to the United States a draft Russian-US treaty on security assurances and an agreement on security measures between Russia and NATO member states.

On the Issue of Ukraine, Putin has repeatedly drawn a clear "red line". In a December 30 call, Putin re-emphasized that the United States should provide legal guarantees to Russia regarding the cessation of NATO's eastward expansion and the non-deployment of threatening weapons systems near russia's borders. Public opinion generally believes that a series of actions by the Russian side show a firm stand on safeguarding national security interests.

Bounov, an expert at the Carnegie Moscow Center in the United States, believes that Putin's statement is not a "attack" by the Russian side, but actually a "counterattack and defensive action" by the Russian side in the face of unequal relations.

Suslov, deputy director of the Center for Integrated European and International Studies at the Russian Higher University of Economics, said that Russia has submitted a draft security treaty to the United States and NATO. For now, the Kremlin's goal is not war, but negotiations. Russia's core need is a written pledge that NATO will not expand eastward and that Ukraine will not join NATO.

Breakthroughs are hard to come by

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Zakharova confirmed on December 30 that Russia and the United States will hold consultations in Geneva on January 10, 2022, on nuclear arms control and tensions over Ukraine. In addition, on January 12, the Russian side will hold a dialogue with NATO in Brussels, Belgium, and on January 13, it will hold a dialogue with the OSCE in Vienna, the capital of Austria.

Analysts pointed out that Russia and the United States and other Western countries have long lacked strategic mutual trust, and multiple factors have made it difficult to fundamentally improve the contradictions between Russia and the West. Although Russia and the United States have shown a willingness to dialogue, it may be difficult to make a fundamental breakthrough in the above talks, and the political game between Russia and the United States and other Western countries around the Ukraine issue will continue.

On the one hand, it is difficult for the united states and Russia to be effectively resolved in the short term. Suslov said that from both domestic and foreign considerations, the United States is unwilling and unable to resolve the conflict with Russia at the cost of concessions. The best outcome in the future is likely to be long-term and arduous consultations between the United States and other Western countries with Russia, which will ease the situation in Ukraine to a certain extent, but it is not easy for all parties to reach an agreement on security issues.

On the other hand, there are differences between the EU and NATO, as well as within the EU and NATO, on the attitude towards Russia. Eu High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Borrell said in a social media post on December 30 that it was unacceptable that Russia was discussing European security issues with the United States and NATO while the EU was excluded. If Russia wants to discuss the issue of Western security guarantees in the negotiations in early 2022, this is not only a matter between the United States and Russia, but also the EU must be closely involved.

Some analysts believe that the series of security consultations between Russia and Western countries expected to be held in January 2022 may achieve limited results. Battyuk, director of the Military and Political Research Center of the Institute of The United States and Canada of the Russian Academy of Sciences, believes that even if the differences are serious, there may still be compromises between Russia and the United States on some issues, such as some kind of agreement on the non-deployment of offensive weapons such as medium-range ballistic missiles in Europe or countries bordering Russia. (Xinhua News Agency reporter Huang He participated in the reporters: Yang Shilong, Li Jizhi)

Source: Xinhua Net