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"And layoffs, this time even a month of compensation is not given, directly let the initiative to leave, do not mention the departure, the company unilaterally terminated the agreement."
This is a message from an employee of the Ten Hui Group on the pulse.
Recently, it was revealed that it will shut down all grid warehouses in Hunan in the next two or three weeks, and it is expected to close all businesses in Changsha at the end of the year. Although the official response media said that Hunan was making business adjustments, which belonged to the normal survival of the fittest, there was no total shutdown, and said that it was not in line with the fact that the online rumor that the Ten Hui Group had completed the layoffs, an insider told "New Entropy" that it was indeed a "super big layoff".
And the Ten Clubs are just a microcosm of this track. "Watch him rise to a tall building, watch him entertain guests, watch him collapse." It is most appropriate to use this sentence to describe the ups and downs of community group buying.
From the capital darling of the first two years to the current "ebb and flow period", from shouting "we must win this battle" to exhaustion, is it a problem of the track or a problem of players?
01 There is no unprovoked exit
There are no easy winners, and there are no exits for no reason.
"The first life is not good, the second luck is not good, and the third operation is not good." One will make a thousand bones dry. This is a summary of Chen Haichao, chief consultant of Mai Marketing Consulting Agency, about the exiting players.
Among the first players to enter, there was an incomparably glorious past.
You and I were once known as the "four king kongs" of community group buying, with monthly sales of nearly 20 million yuan in Changsha in 2017; Food Sharing will complete four rounds of financing totaling more than 300 million yuan in less than one year of its establishment; Tongcheng Life has achieved eight rounds of financing in less than three years since its establishment. None of this can stop the fate of extinction.
The ambition of investors once made the market full of confidence in this track, and the "Alibaba Dry Son" Ten Hui Group raised more than 7.7 billion yuan in three years, and is now on the verge of exiting the track.
In fact, the results of the exit have long been traced.
In order to better grasp the sinking market, players have all carried out "low-price subsidies" for the money raised. What follows is the lack of quality control and the defects of after-sales services, which eventually lead to the loss of user loyalty.
"Meat is water-filled, dishes are not fresh", "Now the worst quality goods have been taken by the community group buying platform", "cheap and no good goods", the voice of dissatisfaction outside followed. Money can drain, but it can't keep the loyalty of users.
Internally, once upon a time, the leaders of the major platforms clapped their fists and thought that the time had come to show their skills, but the result was a chicken feather. "I overdrawn my feelings and didn't make money", this is the sigh of many regiment leaders when they look back on their experiences.
(Image source: Internet)
In terms of "people", the uneven quality and service that cannot keep up, so that these players gradually lose the "people's hearts" even if they have the advantage of the "acquaintance economy".
In terms of "price", blindly relying on price reductions and subsidies to attract traffic has led to a "price war". The result of disrupting the market order is only to hurt the enemy by one thousand and lose eight hundred, and barbaric growth will eventually usher in policy supervision.
On March 3, 2021, the State Administration for Market Regulation imposed an administrative penalty of RMB6.5 million on community group buying platforms such as Shihui Tuan, Food Sharing Club, and Duoduo Buying for fraudulent trading and dumping at improper prices below cost prices.
This means that community group buying has lost the shortcut of "price subsidy", and there is no price advantage, product quality has repeated problems, and customer loss is inevitable. Obviously, from the inside out, whether it is "price" or "people", these "front waves" did not run through at that time.
The advent of the epidemic in 2020 has made the community group buying think that spring has arrived. This year, the track attracted more than 10 billion yuan for the first time, an increase of 356.3% year-on-year. But it has not run through "money" and "people", only relying on temporary "dividends", it is doomed to run for no long. After the end of the epidemic, the community group buying platform has entered the winter again.
The cold first spread from the number of financings. The data shows that in 2017 and 2018, there were 16 and 32 community group purchase financing incidents, respectively. Since June 2021, the community group purchase track has only received 7 financings.
When the enthusiasm for market investment cools, players who have no money to burn will gradually withdraw. Judging from the statistics of industrial and commercial information, a total of 26 community group buying related enterprises have been suspended and cancelled, of which 4 have been cancelled in 2019, 6 have been suspended in 2020, and 7 have been cancelled in 2021.
Some exit grandly, some quietly, but not without warning. Complaints from all parties, arrears of payment and wages, layoffs... These "front waves" have long released the same exit signal.
Taking advantage of the disorderly expansion of capital is clearly not a long-term solution. When there is no money to burn, the traffic dividend has passed, and the community group purchase has reached the time to show real kung fu.
02Who is still holding out?
Now when it comes to community group buying, Meituan Preferred and Duoduo are the two "darlings" who are often hung up on the lips.
With the constant withdrawal of veteran players and the discouragement of outsiders, the current situation is clear. In the first echelon, only the US group and Duoduo are left, and the second echelon, in addition to the prosperity of the preferred still energetic, ten groups and other dying platforms to enter the exit countdown, the rest of the players seem to have been indifferent to the market.
For the first echelon, the head effect is becoming more and more obvious. The data shows that in terms of market share, about 50% of the second- and third-tier cities buy vegetables, and about 30% of the Meituan preferred. Together, they have accounted for 80% of the market share.
Meituan Preferred and Duoduo have a natural advantage - "platform". Meituan can provide users with a "one-stop platform" experience, and Duoduo buys vegetables and relies on the massive sinking market consumer groups of Pinduoduoduo. Under the synergy of the high-traffic platform, the two head players have a lower cost of customer acquisition. With the lessons of the past, Meituan's preferred and more groceries can also learn lessons in terms of "price" and "people".
Chen Haichao told "New Entropy" that Meituan Preferred and Duoduo buy vegetables are tied for the first place, each with its own advantages: "In the supply chain, buying more vegetables has more advantages, after all, it is the parent of Pinduoduo, which has been doing physical e-commerce." However, Meituan's offline BD is better in operation. "Who will be the ultimate winner, it's hard to say.
But the first echelon of life is not good, can not escape the word "burning money". Meituan's financial report showed that the "new business and other" segment, including Meituan's preferred, as of the third quarter of this year, the loss expanded by 437.5% year-on-year to 10.9 billion yuan. "Cost reduction and efficiency increase" is imminent for the US group.
Pinduoduo, the parent of Duoduoduo, shows that the revenue in the third quarter increased by 51% compared with the same period last year, but the user growth has shown signs of slowing down. As of the third quarter, there were 867.3 million annual active buyers, an increase of 17.4 million, compared to 26.1 million in the previous quarter, a significant slowdown.
Talking about the future development trend of Meituan Preferred and Pinduoduo, an industry investor told "New Entropy": "This model is no problem, it depends on what kind of results they want, they currently value traffic and new users, once the traffic and new user dividends are gone, they may abandon the existing model, make changes, and upgrade to the instant delivery service model." ”
For the second echelon, the "conservative" strategy seems to be the first choice at present.
Once known as the "Old Three Groups" together with the Ten Hui Group and Tongcheng Life, as the forerunner of "pre-sale + self-pickup", it has now been taken over by the latecomers. Like the Ten HuiTuan, Xingsheng Preferred also originated in Hunan. At present, the Shihui regiment has withdrawn its troops from Hunan, leaving Xingsheng to prefer a larger market or a chicken feather?
In July 2021, Xingsheng Preferred completed a strategic financing of US$300 million, with a post-investment valuation of US$12 billion. However, in September, Prosperity Preferred proposed the "Rock Plan" to consolidate the business in the areas that have already been launched.
However, xingsheng's own advantages, so that the METUAN, which has occupied the head share, prefers and buys more vegetables, and cannot sit back and relax. Chen Haichao said that the advantage of prosperity lies in its base area , Hunan, "at present, no one can break through the copper wall like an iron wall." Including the first camp of Toto and the US group have no base. They can change rooms at any time, or swap positions. "And this has become the core thing of Prosperity Choice."
"Second, Xingsheng prefers to be the original ecological social group buying platform, and the use of retail is different from several other capital groups, Xingsheng is to use the Internet to do retail, and the capital group is to use retail to do the Internet. I think the insight into retail is flourishing more thoroughly and executed more thoroughly. ”
Looking back at Prosperity's preferred parent company, Furong Prosperous, which started as a traditional small shop, has 30 years of experience in business and logistics. "Retail is a long-distance process, so the team's cognitive piece is also the second knife of prosperity. The third knife, Xingsheng, is the only one in the top five on the track with a logistics management school. Their research on warehouse logistics is very advanced, and logistics endorsement is also the most problematic link for community group buying. Chen Haichao analyzed the "new entropy".
For the current situation in the industry, the head of a community group buying community believes: "It is still profitable to make money now, especially large suppliers, but it is a little late to enter the market at this time." ”
Chen Haichao summed up the situation as "the US group is very stable, duoduo is very fierce, prosperous to defend the tower, and Tao cai cai attack."
"Has entered the second half" is the market's current summary of the community group buying situation, but also a question.
03 Old track, new way of playing
Someone is holding out, someone is overtaking.
At present, betting on community group buying is not better than the previous dividend period, if you want to occupy a place under the effect of market giants, you can only make the cake more detailed.
Unlike putting expectations in the basket of the investment group, this time Ali chose to rely on his two racing horses, "Tao Cai Cai" and "Hema Neighborhood" to compete in this game.
The main goal of community group buying is to sink the market, perhaps close to saturation, or perhaps Ali's ambition is not satisfied with this, it has chosen to "sink and sink". Unlike other community group buying that focus on daily consumer goods, Alibaba's community group buying platform Taocaicai chooses to invest in the asset-heavy model and "go down" to rural revitalization.
Direct supply and direct sales, coupled with the digital technology backed by Ali and 100% three-layer warehouse transportation cold chain coverage, make Taocai vegetables realize from a live cow to a table of dishes in only 36 hours.
This year, the state issued the "14th Five-Year Plan", which clearly and vigorously promoted the reform and development of rural agriculture, promoted the increase of production and income of rural residents, and realized rural revitalization. Keeping up with the car of rural revitalization, it is a new way of playing for Taocai, and it is also in line with the east wind of the policy, from the people's daily that previously commented that the community group purchase "don't just worry about the flow of a few bundles of cabbage and a few pounds of fruit" can be seen in three praises.
When most players were fighting for the head in the red sea of the sinking market, another horse, Ali, chose to rush to the blue ocean track of high-consumption crowds.
This horse is the Box Horse Neighborhood.
Hou Yi, president of Hema Business Group, said in a public speech in November 2020: "What you see today must not be the final model of the future. Many people occupy a certain form of transaction of community group buying, but these are not worth mentioning. ”
In May 2021, Hema officially launched "Hema Neighborhood", the price is lower than Hema, but unlike Hema in the central urban area, Hema Neighborhood mainly covers the suburbs of first- and second-tier cities. Hema's existing supply chain and the "loyalty" of its members, compared to players who entered with bare hands, hema's advantages are now revealed.
Different from the socialization of the group leader in the community group buying 1.0, Hema is the direct control of the group leader, and has since opened up the era of community group buying 2.0.
Talking about the advantages of Hema, Chen Haichao believes: "The advantages of Hema are obvious, his commander is called Hou Yi (alias Lao Cai), is a senior retailer, born in Jingdong. I have a lot of experience and experience in the self-operated new retail. In addition, Ali's strategy is concerned, and his piece from virtual to real is called favor for Hema. The policy of resources is also more inclined, so any innovation of Hema will also be relatively supported at the high level. How about that? How to speak, it remains to be tested by the future and history. ”
The opening of the two new tracks also proves that the community group purchase has not reached the end, and the blue ocean is still vast, depending on who can seize the opportunity and who can open up a new track.
Talking about the future development of the industry, Chen Haichao said that community group buying is not a suitable industry for fancy tricks, "what it really wants to achieve is the reform of the pre-sale supply chain circulation system, which we hail as the third revolution in the productivity of China's retail industry."
"We believe that community group buying from the second half of 2021 is entering a post-era called post-era, and the post-era has three characteristics. First, the state has entered an era of strict supervision, allowing friendly businessmen to supervise each other's prices and rewarding them for disclosure. Second, it has moved from an era of equal emphasis on scale and profit. Third, they went from the price era to the era of combining user experience. That is to say, their top management attaches great importance to the user's experience to prove or make up for the defect that the track says that the product is not good and the experience is not good. It's basically different from before. ”
There is no shortage of players in the industry, what is missing is "sticking to the original intention".
With the innovation of playing style, the boundaries of this track are being widened. It is too early to draw conclusions about who loses and who wins. For today's players, although it is difficult to be in the big waves, it is possible to win in life.