The Brewers reached the playoffs with three aces in 2021, and Corbyn Burns won the Cy young award. In the 2022 season, he will start his first arbitration season, he is expected to get about $4 million, brewers can certainly choose to go through three arbitration years more peacefully, and then raise a qualified offer to collect a draft pick, but for this rare ace pitcher, it is more appropriate to use the control at hand to renew the contract early.
Burns's biggest problem was that he was once a very bad pitcher, and he didn't have enough peak time and his endurance was questionable. In the 2019 season, he made 32 appearances including four starts, shot 49.0 innings, and although he had 70 strikeouts, he had a high SELF-defeat rate of 8.82. At that time, he was knocked out 12.9 hits and 3.1 home runs every nine innings, which were 5.6, 0.3 and 6.6 and 0.4 in the next two years, with the fewest home runs per nine innings this year.
As you can see from the data, Burns's biggest improvement is the home run rate, from 2020 to his 2021 Cy young season, Burns has improved his possession again, and his guarantees per nine innings have been cut in half from 3.6 to 1.8. Combined with these, his K%, K/BB and other data that reflect the level of pitchers, he leads the National League.
Back then, the White Sox had given Chris Purcell a five-year, $32.5 million contract covering a one-year child labor contract, and likewise, Xaar had only voted for a one-year starter and had not yet won a Cy young prize. Stephen Strasberg and Jacob de Grom also renewed their contracts with the team before qualifying for free agent, with a seven-year, seven-year, $175 million with a breakout clause, and de Grome's five-year, $137.5 million, but he was 31 years old at the time.
In contrast, Aron Nora, Luis Severino and Blake Snell, Who signed a four-year, $45 million contract covering three arbitration years and a team option. Severino's situation is similar to Nora's, with a four-year, four-year, $40 million contract. Similar to Burns, Snell won the Celeron Award in the second year of his child labor contract, and the Rays turned around and renewed it with a five-year, $50 million contract.
Compared with the contract between Nora and Snell, it is estimated that if the brewer wants to renew his contract, he will definitely prefer a long contract. The only part of their salary that can be determined in the next few years is Christian Yelić's $26 million a year. However, for a small market like Milwaukee, it is also quite uncomfortable to tie two large long contracts, especially after the Yelich gun became a shotgun, they have little room for error.
But in any case, the Brewers will be in the window for the next few years, brandon Woodruff will not be called a free agent until 2024, and Peralta will be two years later. Burns has proven himself with the Celeron Award, and he deserves a long contract from the brewer.
(Text/Geng Haoyang)