Author | Zhang Cuicui
Edit | Autun
Within a year, WEILAI has released the "brother" models ET7 and ET5, two models, two situations.
At the beginning of the year, Weilai's sales and stock prices rose steadily, and it was timely to be full of spirit, ET7 debuted at this time; the WEIlai stock price at the end of the year was slashed, and the monthly sales were overtaken by the opponent, and the launch of a "walking" entry-level sedan was imminent, and the rumored ET5 became a reality at this time.
But in sharp contrast to this "urgency", Weilai, which has released 5 new cars, is still "selling cars in futures". The ET7 and ET5 were delivered in March and September 2022, respectively, which means that scheduled users will have to wait at least 14 months and 9 months respectively to pick up their car.
Although "futures selling cars" is not a common strategy of Weilai, the delivery rhythm of launching two "futures new cars" a year and separating only half a year not only disrupts the user's car selection plan, but also brings the risk of "brothers" fighting.
In the face of various "running order" risks, Weilai will certainly deal with it through corresponding strategies, but the situation of the new car market is far more complicated than in the past five years, and in the process of catching up with me, all of them are "belly and back enemies". As a user-oriented car company, can WEILAI continue to make consumers willing to wait 9 months to buy a car? The answer a year ago may have been yes, but now it is unknown.
The APP was paralyzed, and the official denied that the order broke through 100,000 units
On the day that ET5 opened for booking, the official App of Weilai was paralyzed.
As a NIO entry-level sedan, ET5 is the cheapest one in the current model, if you choose the BaaS battery rental service, the entry threshold has been reduced to 258,000 yuan, which is very attractive to price-sensitive users.
On December 21, a big V in the field of new energy said on the social platform that "I just heard the news of an industry insider that the small order of NIO ET5 is nearly 100,000!" So scary? ”
In this regard, Ma Lin, senior director of corporate communication of Weilai Automobile, responded in the circle of friends, "Whether public or private, whether IT ISET7 or ET5, Weilai has never disclosed the numbers related to the order, please do not reverse the rhythm of the so-called "industry insiders". ”
Rumors of high order volumes are not unfounded. Chen Haoshi, a senior industry insider, said on Tencent Auto that the luxury new energy cars on the market are polarized, and the 300,000-400,000 range where ET5 is located is still a blue ocean.
"Among the models currently on the market, either they are too expensive like the Porsche Tycan (from 880,000 yuan), or like the Xiaopeng P7 (from 220,000 yuan), BYD Han (from 210,000 yuan), and even the Tesla Model 3 (from 260,000 yuan), the latter three are not luxury cars in the popular sense." The above-mentioned industry insiders believe that the order volume of Weilai ET5 will not be less, "tens of thousands of vehicles are definitely there, but the figure of 100,000 vehicles is a bit scary."
Each product of WEILAI has a distinct selling point, the ET7 at the beginning of the year uses the mass-produced version of lidar and 150-degree semi-solid-state batteries to amaze the industry, and the MOST impressive IMPRESSION LEFT BY THE ET5 at the end of the year is 9 colors and cost performance.
The "colorful" ET5 is favored by young users, especially female users. "Et5 is very good-looking, and what attracts me the most is the appearance, and it is Weilai." Wang Minzheng, who has already paid the money, plans to buy a new energy car, before the ET5 debut, she has seen xiaopeng P7, P5, she frankly said that the ET5 is small and exquisite and more suitable for girls to drive.
Another user who has already booked ET7 is also hesitant to transfer to ET5, on the grounds that "et5 colors are beautiful, and some colors ET7 do not".
Weilai's power exchange service is still an important reason for some users to order this car. The old owner Feiying chose ET5 mainly because of the convenience of replacing the power, "There are two replacement power stations in front of the door, one has been operated, the other is under construction, the electric district room is fragrant in my place at once, and I have a lifetime free power exchange rights." ”
Zhao William, the owner of the reservation, told Tencent Automobile that the most important thing about buying new energy vehicles is the convenience of charging, "If you can't install a charging pile, and you can't change the power, it's quite fatal." ”
Since the release of the five models, WEILAI has never revealed any model intention gold users and final conversion rate, and the final sales performance can only wait until the official announcement of monthly sales to have an answer.
However, the next day of NIO Day, Li Bin told the media, "The ET5 car will be the largest order volume of THE overall same period in The history of Weilai." ”
"Transfer orders" appear frequently, and "futures selling cars" are facing a test
How many real sales can eventually be converted into the number of hot orders will eventually need to be tested by the market.
"Today's order volume does not represent anything, now belongs to the user's impulsive consumption stage, spend money can occupy the position who is willing to try it, and the deposit of 2,000 yuan can also be refunded, and the opponent is not 'vegetarian'." A senior analyst told Tencent Automobile that the most worrying thing for enterprises today is that after users impulsively order, they are "dug into the corner" by their opponents.
After 95, Lin Shaoming is the owner of the BMW 3 Series, and on the evening of December 18, he booked ET5 while watching the press conference as his first new energy vehicle. He told Tencent Auto that unlike the experience of buying a traditional car, he doesn't like this kind of car buying such as buying "futures", "I prefer to give money today, next week I can pick up the car, instant satisfaction, it is best that I give money now, I can drive away now, I don't like it and so on." ”
He admits that 9 months can now wait, but if a new brand or a stronger model is released, it is likely that the car will be unsubscribed. At the same time, he also "worried that after 9 months, only part of it would be delivered, and he would have to wait." ”
Wang Min also has the same concern, "if the plan changes before the vehicle is delivered, it will affect whether the car will actually be bought." Another owner of the ET5 book told Tencent Auto that financial policies, performance at the time of vehicle delivery, and the direction of the NIO brand at that time would also affect his final purchase decision.
Nio has released a list of 5 new car delivery cycles
Some new energy car product delivery cycles at a glance
Another potential risk is that after the launch of the ET5 model, some of the orders came from the "transfer order" of the ET7 model from Wei. Liao Fei, the owner of the ET7 reservation, told Tencent Automobile that after seeing ET5, he was a little hesitant, "It is true that the color is very attractive, but I feel that the low entry threshold of ET5 will become a street car, and I will most likely choose ET7." "At present, he has paid a deposit for both cars and has not yet made a final decision.
Industry insider Li Qin told Tencent Auto that there are two main situations for such "transfer order" users, one is a price-sensitive user, who decisively transfers orders after seeing cost-effective models; and one is that he feels that the SIZE of ET7 is too large, and he has decided to choose less before, and he decides to transfer orders after having a more suitable model size.
Model 3 owner Zhou Qi opened Tesla for three years, booked the ET7 as the next upgrade model at the beginning of the year, after seeing the ET5 he consulted the official "new colors and new wheels will be added to the ET7 configuration", but after getting an official negative reply, he said he regretted it.
When asked if he was worried about the "internal fight" between the two cars, Li Bin joked that "whoever has two children in the family can do it." However, Weilai, which is under pressure, may not be able to allow its own models to "fight infighting".
In fact, the official intention is to open up the positioning of the two cars through different configurations and financial services. Compared with ET7, ET5 has more colors and wheel styles, but less air suspension, HUD and other configurations, and even users cannot choose the above configurations. At the same time, the first owner of ET7 still enjoys a lifetime warranty, while ET5 can only be guaranteed for ten years.
From the appearance and the same battery pack, the two cars are not much different, but deep into its configuration, user rights and prices, ET7 is significantly more business intelligence, while ET5 is more sporty and younger, and users can easily make their own choices.
However, "impulsive orders waiting for a long time" has become the norm for "futures to buy a car" user, and the payment of money can be very casual, but after paying the "Dading" lock order, if the user regrets it, he needs to find a way on his own.
The so-called lock order, that is, the user pays a non-refundable "large deposit" to officially order this new car, the enterprise will arrange the production and delivery according to the time sequence of the lock order, which means that the sooner the user locks the order, the sooner the enterprise starts the delivery of the vehicle, the sooner it will get the new car.
In fact, every link such as the intention to pay before picking up the car, the lock list and the test car are difficult for the owner.
Taking WEIO ET7 as an example, the official announcement will begin to lock orders on January 20 next year, but users will not be able to really see the real car and obtain test driving qualifications until March. A car owner said in the Weilai app, "Waiting for the car for so long, I still hope to be able to test drive before locking the order." The lock list before the test drive means that if I wait for the test drive, I will have to extend the pick-up time. ”
According to Tencent Automobile, the configuration of the delivered models of Extreme Kr 001 is lower than expected, and it has also encountered a large number of users "transferring orders". "There are fewer and fewer opportunities for the market to tolerate fault for new brands. Nowadays, there are more and more new energy brands, and models in various market segments will also break out in the next few years, and futures sales may not be very suitable for the present. Chen Hao analyzed.
"Old with new", booking a car is also a "business"
After the "futures selling car" model prevailed, a new "industry" was derived.
Tencent Auto found on a second-hand goods trading platform that the reservation vehicle orders of new power brands such as Xiaopeng, Ideal, Weilai, and JiKr have relevant "resale" information. Sellers, most of whom claim to be individuals, will sell popular models that have expired and closed their bookings, low-interest financial services, and some activities with limited-time preferential delivery configurations at a higher price.
A user who released an order to transfer ES6 told Tencent Automobile that the activity he chose at that time was 1.99% low-interest rate car purchase, the down payment was about 50,000 yuan, the total price of the loan car purchase can save 30,000 yuan, the whole country can use, he previously paid a deposit of 2,000 yuan, the price of the transfer target is 9,000 yuan.
"I'm not selling cars." He identified himself as soon as he came up, and pointed out that after the transaction, he directly transferred NIO's sales consultant (Fellow), and the transfer price was completed on the second-hand platform, and the subsequent sales link communicated directly with Fellow.
It is worth noting that he clearly told Tencent Auto that the above process has been officially recognized, and sent the name and avatar of Weilai Fellow in the official App. But he mentioned a detail, "If you have left a phone in the official and have a docking sale, you may encounter some trouble transferring orders and need to ask specifically." He said that Weilai's Fellow is a lifelong system and cannot be replaced at will.
Reselling lock orders to collect a certain "transfer fee" is a common practice in the industry, and the play of old car owners with new owners is becoming a unique "business" of the Weilai community.
As of press time, the "ET5 open booking" post on the official APP of Nio has reached 431,000 views. In addition to the discussion of models and rights and interests of new and old users in the post message, there is another voice.
An old car owner with the ID "Speed and Future" posted at least 3 identical messages, which read, "Welcome new friends to NIO, international practices, follow me, use my invitation code to buy a car." Process: Pay attention to me, I send you a QR code in private message chat, you fill in my invitation code to pay the intention to pay, and then after you pay the large deposit, I will return to you with cash 1,000 yuan or 12,000 points for the first time, choose one of the two. I'm only trying to improve my WEI value. ”
In the post message, the old car owner who released similar information has at least 3, and the relevant follow-up message is also the most popular, and many ET5 booking new owners are even willing to cancel the order first, and then fill in the invitation code to buy a car.
It is understood that in the "invitation code" rule of the old owner with the new owner, the new and old car owners can get 12,000 points, and the old car owner will increase the reward value by 100 Weilai. Among them, 12,000 points can be purchased in the Weilai Mall equivalent to 1200 yuan of goods, and most of the old owners promise to return the recommended points to the new owners, "only to improve the value of Weilai".
At present, NIO value is the most accessible under the "old with new" rule, and the number of recommended new users is in the top 200, you can join the NIO EP club. According to official information, the club was established in 2018 and is the most high-end official user club in the WEILAI community, serving users who have made outstanding contributions to the development of the WEILAI community.
The original intention of many Weilai car owners who want to join the EP club is to "mix circles". A owner of the founding version of the WEIO ES8 told Tencent Automobile that users could join the club by purchasing EP9 or investing in NIO SPACE, but at present, the official production of EP9 is no longer produced, and personal investment in NIO SPACE has also been stopped.
Weilai hopes to bring sales increase through the recommendation mechanism and user reputation, however, an industry insider pointed out that from the current point of view, some old car owners think that Weilai value has higher value, he is willing to recommend and transfer points to new users, but in actual operation, this practice can not bring real increments, more loopholes in drilling rules, contrary to the original intention of the rules.
"The old car owners recommend not really their own friends and relatives, the official needs to rethink and adjust the point system, which may harm the interests of their own companies." said the above-mentioned person.
However, Weilai is not the first car company to introduce the "old with the new" car purchase rule. In 2017, Tesla also launched a model for old car owners to recommend car purchases, and the official promised to recommend selling 50 cars, and send a Roadster2 founding version, which was worth 2 million yuan at that time, which was equivalent to the old owner recommending a new user to earn 40,000 yuan.
According to data from U.S. media statistics, more than 60 people who meet this condition will get a free Roadster 2 start-up version, of which more than 20 people can get two or more for free. After considering the cost performance, the official stopped this model.
Li Bin said frankly that what Weilai values most is not sales, "what really makes us nervous is that there are more and more users and more employees, how can we improve our service and satisfaction through the closed loop." ”
The satisfaction of WEI's more than 150,000 users is visible, but before many uncertainties and potential risks, Weilai should reflect on how to make the users who are waiting for "futures to buy a car" satisfied. Perhaps, Weilai can wait for users, rather than let users wait for Weilai.