"Rice exclusive" is coming, and rice prices have bottomed out

Farmers with low rice prices are reluctant to sell

This year, the domestic rice market purchase and sales are very bleak, rice enterprises and traders have more stocks of old rice, resulting in a low rice price after the listing of new crops, not only the market acquisition of less and rice prices after a month continue to decline, the main production areas of rice prices are mostly running below the market price. This week, the release of rice in the state's temporary storage was suspended, and the pressure on market supply fell. Due to the high planting costs of farmers in 21 years, the continuous decline in new rice prices has touched the planting income of farmers, so under the background of good weather and low moisture of new rice, farmers are more selective to sell and resell grain storage. As of this Friday, the grass-roots purchase price of ordinary round-grain rice in the northeast production area is 1.25 yuan / jin, the rice production rate is about 68%, the price of long-grain fragrant rice is 1.26-1.3 yuan / jin, the price of super rice is 2 yuan to make rice, and the price of Liaoxing to the rice factory is 1.35 yuan / jin, the quality is good, and the rice rate is about 70%. Since the beginning of the month in Jiangsu, there has been a round of obvious rainfall process, which lasts for a long time, which is not conducive to the listing of new crops, and there are rice lodging and germination phenomena in some areas, and the market is polarized and characterized by high quality and good price.

According to the notice of the State Grain and Material Reserve Bureau, Anhui Province will launch the minimum purchase price plan for mid-to-late rice in 2021 in relevant areas that meet the conditions from October 23. Anhui is the first province in the middle and late rice to start the city, so as to lay the foundation for the continuous downturn in the indica rice market, it is undoubtedly a reassuring pill for farmers and trade areas, after all, the market has been looking forward to it for a long time, and the specific warehouse points for the follow-up will be announced soon. Immediately after the two lakes, Henan, Jiangxi, Sichuan and other places will also be launched, with the expansion of the scope of the start of the city, the author believes that it will also be conducive to ensuring the planting income of farmers, but also conducive to rice enterprises can be assured to build inventory, after all, there are old rice suppression, new rice is not smooth, lack of confidence in the future market. In November, the city is expected to start a wide range, but it is also necessary to pay attention to the strength of the city, this year all provinces have inspection teams to inspect, the market price is not the actual settlement price, need to be sieved back to the miscellaneous, etc., so the start of the city only represents the bottom of the support, the probability of rice prices rising is very low.

There are supports at the bottom of the glutinous rice

As we all know, this year the scope of glutinous rice planting has expanded and the yield has increased. Taking the round-grain japonica glutinous rice in the northeast production area as an example, it has opened a pattern of endless declines since it was listed. But since last weekend, glutinous rice prices have begun to rebound. In particular, due to the long rainfall in Jiangsu and Anhui production areas, the growth of glutinous rice is in the mature stage of grouting, the market is worried about the decline in yield and the reluctance of farmers to sell, so the price of japonica glutinous rice has risen by 0.05 yuan / catty to this Friday. And this week began to have a large number of grassroots procurement under the main body in the northeast production area to prepare for the bottom, which undoubtedly provides favorable support for the market. With the intervention of this part of the subject, more subjects are expected to participate in the future market. The author believes that this is also a good opportunity for a wave of grain sales, specifically according to their own grain quality pricing, especially in the northern production areas, this year's glutinous rice quality is not as good as in previous years, the crushing content is high, and the polished rice rate is low. In the long run, after all, the total amount of glutinous rice is relatively large, and the amount of surplus grain in the hands of farmers in some production areas is more, rationally looking at this round of rise, there are still glutinous rice in the main production areas that have not been listed, and the market still has an adjustment period.

In summary, before the end of the month, domestic rice prices are expected to stop falling and stabilize, and the downside is limited. However, in the long run, under the background of this year's abundant production, the supply of raw grain in the market is still sufficient. In particular, the branches of China Grain Storage are still continuing to release old grain, in addition to the city, this year's rice market continues to be sluggish, the price of new rice continues to decline, and consumption is limited, which will inhibit the enthusiasm of rice enterprises to enter the market to purchase. It is recommended that farmers sell grain in an orderly manner, do not pile up to sell grain, and farmers in some areas have a demand for repayment at the end of the year, and it is recommended that the local price and the psychological expected value of the price difference is not particularly large when the profit is locked in time. (China Cereals and Oils Information Network Yin Xiuying)