Today, Jiangsu is dominated by cloudy to sunny weather. At 6 a.m., the temperature in the province was above 1°C. The temperature in Su Xichang and Nanjing exceeds 5 °C. Compared with the same time yesterday, there is basically a rebound of about 2 ° C. In addition, the wind in the province is small, the air humidity is basically above 90%, and the whole province is shrouded in fog. In particular, there was a thick fog with visibility of less than 200 meters in the northwest and east of Xuzhou, the north of Suqian, and the western part of Lianyungang. There will be a certain impact on the traffic in the morning rush hour, and travel needs to pay more attention to safety.
When the reporter went out in the morning, the fog in the air felt thicker than in the previous days, and the distant buildings were also shrouded in a layer of fog, which was not real. But fortunately, the temperature in the morning has risen again compared with yesterday, and it is basically not very "frozen". By 14:00, the temperature in the province was in double digits, the highest Yangzhou was 16.5 °C, and the lowest Xilian Island was 10.9 °C. Compared to yesterday, the temperature still rose, but in the afternoon the weather turned cloudy and the rain "stepped on the point" to arrive.
According to the latest forecast of the Jiangsu Meteorological Observatory, a cold air is approaching us, and this night to tomorrow the province will first usher in a weak precipitation process. It is expected that from the afternoon of the 16th, there will be strong cold air from north to south affecting our province, the temperature of the province will drop significantly, the minimum temperature of 48 hours will drop by up to 11 ~ 14 °C, and the minimum temperature of the process will appear on the morning of the 18th: -6 ~ -7 °C in Huaibei, -2 °C in the southeast, -4 ~ -5 °C in other areas, and most areas are frozen.
Maybe everyone will have such a question, the cooling brought by the cold air this time is so strong, the temperature is so low, will it snow at that time? Unfortunately, according to the forecast of the weather station, this cold air process will not bring snowfall. In general, snow requires three conditions: First, there must be a cold ice crystal nucleus in the atmosphere, so that water vapor can "condense" to form a solid. Second, there must be sufficient water vapor, if the water vapor is not enough, there will be no conditions for the formation of the foundation when it snows. The temperature reaches below 0 °C (freezing point), but if the cold air is quite intense and carries moisture, the temperature of 1 °C to 10 °C can also snow. As far as this cold air process is concerned, it will only bring a weak precipitation formed by the intersection of cold and heating groups from the 15th to the 16th, and for the conditions required for snow, the water vapor conditions wrapped in cold air are not sufficient, so we have to experience a wave of "dry cold".
【Weather forecast of the province】
【Meteorological Trivia】
Why is the forward weather forecast inaccurate? Some websites or mobile apps can now provide weather for the next 7 to 15 days, but the longer the forecast, the more frequently buggies and low accuracy. Mainly because these forecasts are calculated by computer numerical models, but the metadata obtained by meteorological observations will always lead to various errors (insufficient density, low accuracy); numerical models use a series of complex mathematical and physical equations, which can only find approximate solutions, which will also produce many errors. Over time, errors snowball.
Xinhua Daily, intersection reporter Zhang Xuan, intern Chen Xiaoying
Source: Xinhua Daily