Author: Gong Yue
If Nazi Germany had not fought on two fronts, but had attacked the Soviet Union first, would it have won the Soviet-German War and even changed the course of World War II? This article analyzes the possible variables of one of the largest land battlefields in World War II from an objective and comprehensive perspective.
The infamous "Munich Conspiracy" in September 1938 allowed Nazi German soldiers to gain bloodless access to the Sudetenland region of Czechoslovakia (a year later Germany actually annexed Czechoslovakia), and the non-aggression pact signed by the Soviet Union and Germany in August also secretly agreed to divide Poland.
Munich Conspiracy
At this point, the Anglo-French policy of appeasement toward Germany reached its peak, although British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain called himself "the peace of this age" and avoided the outbreak of war in 1938. Then, a year later, in September 1939, Nazi Germany attacked Poland, causing Britain and France to declare war on Germany and the spectacle of war history, "Sit-in", at which point the European theater of World War II officially broke out.
Suppose we take this as a historical inflection point, imagining that Nazi Germany secretly reached an agreement with Britain and France in order to avoid a two-front war, that Britain and France instigated Germany to attack the Soviet Union at the expense of Poland, and that Germany promised not to infringe on the interests of Britain and France.
Chamberlain
According to the established plan, in September 1939, Germany attacked Poland, and the Soviet Union sent troops to Poland. After the partition of Poland between the two countries, the Soviet Union attacked Finland in October 1939 in order to establish the "Eastern Defense Line", and the Soviet-Finnish War broke out, at which time Nazi Germany took the opportunity to send troops to attack the Soviet Union, and the Soviet-German War broke out two years ahead of schedule. If this is the case, can Nazi Germany win the Soviet-German war?
After Hitler became Chancellor of Germany in 1933, he abrogated treaties and rearmed Germany. In order to fully fascize, Hitler, through the Nazi Party and the SA, took various measures, including assassinations, to establish totalitarian rule in Germany and incite German nationalist sentiments.
After the annexation of Czechoslovakia and Poland, Hitler reached a high peak in Popularity in Germany, and most Germans believed that he would lead Germany to revival, so in 1939 it can be said that Germany was a very unified voice, and Hitler gained almost all support.
Hitler came to power
The Soviet Union in 1939 was still at the end of the purge campaign, and the intermittent purges were still in progress until the outbreak of war.
The harm caused to the Soviet Union by the Great Purge and Purge Movement is beyond doubt: a large number of talents in the economic, military, cultural and other fields have suffered heavy losses, political life is full of terror, everyone is in danger, so that many contradictions within the Soviet Union and mutual suspicion and false accusations prevail, the combat effectiveness of the army has dropped significantly, and it has performed poorly in the subsequent Soviet-Finnish War. Politically, germany was therefore far superior to the Soviet Union in 1939.
Soviet-Finnish War
After the Great Depression, the economies of the world's major developed countries have declined sharply, and Germany is no exception, and inflation in Germany was severe during the crisis. However, after Hitler came to power, he vigorously expanded the armament war to stimulate economic recovery, coupled with Germany's original manufacturing base, the German economy has recovered relatively quickly.
In 1938, Germany's steel production exceeded 20 million tons, while the Soviet Union did not exceed 20 million tons until 1949; Germany,000 tons of coal and 31.8 million tons of steel, including the occupied areas, produced 150 million tons of coal and 17.9 million tons of steel per year, and sufficient coal enabled Germany to generate 70 billion kWh (48 billion kWh in the Soviet Union), 1.26 million metal cutting machine tools (584,000 in the SOVIET Union), and german machine building workers more than doubled in the Soviet Union. Krupp, BMW, Messerschmidt, etc. are all well-known large enterprises, and the Soviet Union has only recently completed industrialization.
German tank production
What should not be overlooked is that in this hypothesis, Germany did not go to war with Britain and France, which means that the oil shortage that plagues Germany the biggest problem can be imported in large quantities through Britain and France (Britain, France and the Middle East colonies are oil-rich countries), and the developed industrial system in Western Europe can also help Germany improve the problem of insufficient production capacity.
For war, economic strength is most directly reflected in military production. There are very interesting figures: in 1944, when the Allies launched a large-scale strategic bombing of Germany, German military production reached its peak during the war: in that year, Germany produced about 40,000 aircraft, 27,000 tanks, 87,000 artillery. At the same time, Germany was also dealing with the Allied offensive on the east-west front.
Industrialization of the SOVIET Union
I dare not imagine how much damage the Soviets would have suffered if the Germans had not had the "worries" of Britain and France and attacked the Soviet Union with all their might, the Leopard tanks, Ferdinand destroyers, 88cm anti-aircraft guns, Me109 fighters and Stuka dive bombers.
If the Soviet-German battle loss ratio was calculated according to 3:1, every 3 Soviet tanks for 1 German tank, about 80,000 Soviet tanks could be killed in 1944 alone, and the entire Soviet Union produced 105,000 tanks in World War II! It can be said that Germany's economic strength and the resulting military production capacity are much higher than those of the Soviet Union.
In 1939, France was still dreaming of a peace-of-mind on the Maginot Line; the British Empire struggled to support the face of the Empire that never set and maintained the "tie for the first place" of the Navy; the United States was still alone in isolationism, and the Seemingly Huge Army of the Soviet Union was tossed by the small Nordic country of Finland. The German Army, which had been proud of all of Europe since the time of Frederick the Great of Prussia, had re-armed the Wehrmacht and the SS of the Third Reich with military theories and operational ideas that were ahead of all the great powers.
Objectively speaking, in real history, the combat effectiveness of the German army when it launched the Barbarossa Plan should be unparalleled in the world, and the German Army, which was baptized by the Battle of France, had millions of well-trained and well-equipped mechanized army groups. But if the time is advanced to 1939, the German combat effectiveness should not have reached that high.
Barbarossa Plan
Taking the Battle of France, which was close in time, as an example, the nazi forces that could be used to fight against the Soviet Union in 1939 were: 3 million people, 2800 tank armored vehicles, 7500 artillery pieces, and 1800 combat aircraft, while the strength of the Soviet army opposite in early 1939 was: 2.5 million troops, 21100 tank armored vehicles, 55800 artillery, and 7700 combat aircraft. The Soviets had a great numerical superiority.
However, in terms of combat effectiveness, at least before 1943, the Soviet army was not superior to the German army, the reason was that in addition to the relatively old equipment and the lack of personnel in many troops, the most important thing was that the Great Purge movement caused serious losses to the Soviet officer corps, and the combat effectiveness of the troops declined sharply.
In terms of military strength, the Soviet army can accumulate a large numerical advantage through the explosion of potential (it is funny that the wars won by the Russian nation in history are basically based on long-term piles of numbers to consume opponents), but if the German army defeats the Soviet army through blitzkrieg before the Soviet army fully explodes its numerical superiority, it is difficult to say. Moreover, in the absence of a western front, it is difficult to say whether it can occupy an absolute numerical advantage.
In early July 1943, the Germans maintained 4 million troops, 4,700 tanks, 3,600 fighters, and 40,000 artillery pieces in the Soviet-German theater. If the war had broken out in 1939 and lasted for four years until 1943, the Soviet losses, combined with the absence of Anglo-American assistance, might have really collapsed.
German Panzer IV
Whoever can unite more and stronger forces on both sides of the war has a better chance of winning the war. If history does not turn a point, the strength of Germany, Japan, italy and Italy will certainly not be as good as that of China, the Soviet Union, the United States and Britain, but what we assume now is that Britain and France did not declare war on Germany, and the war was relatively separate between the Soviet Union and Nazi Germany.
1939 may be the most comfortable diplomatic environment in Germany's two world wars: with the urine nature of the Anglo-French appeasement policy, it is hoped that Germany and the Soviet Union will start a war to "bring misfortune to the east", and this policy has a great support force in Britain and France, from which it can be inferred that British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain will most likely not step down, then the old man who is tough on Germany will probably not have a chance to come to power (it is doubted that even if he comes to power with his strong anti-communist tendencies, he will not support the Soviet Union), and it is certain that the Anglo-French appeasement policy will continue;
Secondly, Germany could join forces with Finland to attack the Soviet Union, and in 1939 the Soviet Union was deeply trapped in the Sufn battlefield, and if Germany took the opportunity to attack the Soviet Union, it would be just right; third, in May 1939, Japan and the Soviet Union broke out the Battle of Nomonkan, and if Germany and Japan jointly attacked the Soviet Union according to the previous agreement, it would be another knife for the Soviet Union;
Soviet forces at the Battle of Nomonkan
Finally, the United States in 1939, still on the sidelines, continued to export scrap steel and oil to Japan and did not aid the Soviet Union (even if it were difficult to do so, it would be almost impossible for the Yankees to send supplies directly to the Soviet Union from the mainland without British consent and cooperation).
In contrast, the Soviet Union in 1939 was deeply involved in the Soviet-Finnish War, the second was the exchange of fire between the Far East and Japan, the third was the all-out offensive of the world's first army, and the fourth was that the major Western countries were almost unable to save themselves, and finally their internal purges and purges were intermittent, almost falling into a situation of internal and external difficulties. The only country on the same front as the Soviet Union was China, which had waged an arduous war of resistance 8 years earlier.
Nationalist forces in the Battle of Songhu
If Nazi Germany had launched Operation Barbarossa in 1939 and invaded the Soviet Union on a large scale, it would have been much more advantageous than in 1941, with almost a comprehensive political, economic, military and diplomatic advantage. In 1939, the Soviet Union was ill-prepared for war, the domestic situation, the diplomatic environment, etc., and it was likely to suffer more heavy losses than in real history. We will always support a just war, and we have never underestimated the determination and perseverance of the Soviet people to defend their homeland.
American drama "The Strange Man of the High Castle"
But it can only be said that if Nazi Germany attacked the Soviet Union first and went all out, although the Soviet army desperately resisted, it is very likely that the scene in the American drama "The Strange Man of the High Castle" would really appear in real history.
Fortunately, history is real, the invaders are insatiable both hypothetically and truthfully, and their aggressive ambitions do not change. Nazi Germany eventually chose to fight on two fronts, and the forces of justice around the world united to put an end to the Axis dream in 1945.