The market potential brought by autonomous driving will exceed the imagination of most people

On December 13, Xu Yingbo, Managing Director & Chief Technology Industry Analyst of CITIC Securities Research Department, delivered a keynote speech on "The Future of Science and Technology, Smart Cars First" at the 36Kr Capital Market Summit Forum.

Xu Yingbo said that in the past decade or so, the top ten companies in the world by market capitalization in the technology field have continued to grow rapidly in terms of aggregate market capitalization. In addition, after 2020, we see Tesla, NVIDIA and TSMC appear on the top 10 list. In the automotive field, the list of the world's top ten car companies with market capitalization has also undergone major changes, and Tesla's market value has risen sharply, surpassing Toyota. At the same time, there is also a skateboard chassis Rivian, and the new tram company Lucid is also emerging. The ranking of the top ten car companies in China's automotive field is also changing, WITHD with a rapidly growing electric vehicle sales company market value of more than 800 billion yuan, and the new car-making forces Weilai, Xiaopeng and Ideal, the market value reached the order of 200-300 billion yuan respectively.

In the commercialization field of robotaxi & RoboTruck, the main players include both technology giants and startups. Among them, the startups were mainly established in 2015-2016, after five or six years of development, these companies have accumulated more technology, more data, and the products are constantly iterating. In the future, with further iterations of technology and products, we look forward to the acceleration of the commercialization of autonomous driving.

For the future, she made several prospects:

1, the cost of power batteries is still expected to continue to decline, the future is worth looking forward to a part is the cost of electric vehicles continue to explore, and then drive the penetration rate of electric vehicles to increase.

2. Automatic driving above L2+ has gradually become the standard for passenger cars.

3. In the future, when everyone chooses a car, it is largely based on data intelligence and user experience. Including the level of automatic driving, intelligent cockpit and other levels.

4. With the gradual landing of policies, there are some pilot demonstration areas for autonomous driving in first- and second-tier areas, and there will be opportunities to radiate and diffuse to third- and fourth-tier areas in the future.

5, as some companies gradually land on the capital market, there will be more people to understand such a track, there will be more capital to help this track, will also help the process of commercialization of automatic driving.

In Xu's view, in the tech world, we sometimes overestimate the changes of a year and underestimate the likelihood of a decade. If we look at the future five or ten years, we have every reason to expect the commercialization of autonomous driving, and the gap between human drivers and virtual AI drivers is gradually narrowing. This also means that scientific and technological progress has led to the improvement of human productivity, which will bring more possibilities. The market potential and industrial opportunities it brings will also exceed the imagination of the vast majority of people.

Finally, she said that in the face of the future of technology, we need more imagination.

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