This article is based on publicly available materials and is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice.
Reviewing Tesla's stock price trend, it has been sideways for more than 3 years since the IPO in 10 years. With the mass production and delivery of the revolutionary Model S, 13 years Q1, Tesla's first profit, Musk into the US public eye, the stock price for the first time, 2 years 5 times.
At that time, after the end of Joe's gang, the technology community urgently needed a protestant leader to carry the hegemony of American science and technology. After FANG, the US stock market also needs a cosmic leader to continue the story of the new economy.
In the era of mobile Internet, Apple, which Joe helped lead, used perfect design and products to control the underlying chips and operating systems, and completed the creation of a generation of faith consumer goods by binding the supply chain in Asia. Similarly, in the era of electric vehicles, Tesla firmly controls the industrial barriers of batteries, motors and electronic controls, and creates the integration of three forces of scale effect, network effect and Moore's law, and Musk's personal image project is the source of Tesla's premium.
But in the 5 years from 14 to 19 years, Tesla fell into the "production capacity hell", and the stock price almost stood still.
Like Amazon, both were once expected by the market to be "business models that will change the world", but Amazon's good free cash flow made Wall Street more convinced of its long-term story, while Tesla was most criticized for its high debt ratio and poor cash flow, once facing a double kill of stocks and debt, falling into a bottomless financial trap.
Many Wall Street bigwigs, short and short Tesla, is also a rational choice. For Musk's super IP, Munger's criticism is not merciless, and his former partner, Peter Thiel, who is also a Silicon Valley gangster, says "Never bet against Elon".
In 2016, Musk formulated an ambitious Great Leap Forward plan, planning to produce 1 million vehicles in 2020, while the annual output at that time was only 80,000 vehicles, such a capacity jump far exceeded the growth rate of fuel vehicles. Few analysts would value Tesla based on such business goals. Historical data shows that more than 80% of businesses cannot achieve "their own bragging bulls" so-called strategy execution on Hariy back.
Breaking Through the Real Dilemma: Trends, Endowments, and Entrepreneurial Grand Strategies Hariy back: Business Vision vs Dismal Reality
The underlying operating system of liberal capitalism naturally leads to deindustrialization. Tesla's plight is a microcosm of the decline of American manufacturing. What really changed Tesla's fate was that Tesla built a factory in China in 19 years, the car was placed outside the Unigroup, and Musk was on the news network.
To combat the depletion of scattered resources and cash in capacity, the lighthouse state is no longer appropriate, and China's supply chain and market are God's salvation. Capital's decision-making in the face of efficiency is cruel and calm, returning to the source, and the root of great power competition lies in the competition of overall production efficiency.
Replicating the path Apple has taken and having an efficient supply chain in East Asia is the last piece of the puzzle of Musk's energy landscape. With Tesla's three quarterly reports in 19 years exceeding expectations, the long-term story has short-term beautiful data to support, and the release of production capacity has finally made the market believe in the cost reduction brought about by Tesla's technological progress and scale effect.
Financially, free cash flow continued to be optimized, and the stock price officially took off. Biden's new energy policy has injected enough valuation power into Tesla.
In July 2020, Tesla's market value surpassed Toyota's, and the iconic event, the big era of electric vehicles is beginning. Musk's capacity plan five years ago is also becoming a reality. As the largest pillar industry in Germany and Japan, the transformation of traditional car companies is like the pain of a broken arm, and the huge upstream and downstream system of the industrial chain formed by the century-old automobile industry makes them unable to be as unscrupulous and let go like Tesla. (Author: smartmatrix)