In the French election, the giant lan turned to the right, and there were many doubts

The presidential election is one of the most important aspects of France's democratic political life. The biggest movement so far in this election, as everyone knows, is that, with Zemur's candidacy, the overall wind direction has suddenly turned sharply to the right. A large number of taboo topics that used to be openly discussed in various media have now been openly discussed, and the degree of openness makes it difficult for me and others who write articles that have long been regulated by various political correctness to adapt.

Let's start with the election rookie Zemour. His basic political views, I believe do not need to be outlined. His main significance is that it really pushes the collective will of the French electorate to accelerate to the right, even to the far right. He probably also understands that the miracle created by Macron in the last session is difficult for him to repeat this time. The significance of his participation in this campaign is to awaken more French people to the great crisis facing French culture (metaphysically) / even civilization (including metaphysics) in his mind. He may have done that.

Zemur announced at the first campaign rally on the 5th that his party had been named Reconquête (I tentatively translate "Retake the Party"). The term is derived from the Spanish historical term Reconquista, which refers specifically to the 770-year-long (722-1492) campaign of Europeans on the Iberian Peninsula to reclaim territory from Muslims. The word has been translated as "reconquest." In fact, a more accurate translation should be "recovery of lost land". Speaking of which, Zemour named his party in such a way that it was very offensive to that particular group of people. His bodyguards should beware.

Now le Pen + Zemour's public opinion score has approached, and even once exceeded 30%. That's a huge leap from Le Pen's 21 percent in the last election! But there are important extensions of the French far right that will be discussed below.

(Note: 9% of the 2017 figures belong to small parties.) 10% of the 2021 poll data belongs to small parties. None are counted in the graph. ）

In addition to Zemour, the second sign of France's sharp right shift is a sharp right shift in the mainstream center-right veteran party, the Republican Party. In the Republican primary on the 5th, Joti, the main representative of the right wing of the party, unexpectedly came out on top, and Ms. Peckles, who represented the mainstream of the party, won the second round without accident. In the polls of the 7th, her opinion score doubled, straight to Macron. As a result, she became the second hit of this campaign so far, no less than Zemur, the dark horse.

Look at the way polls have evolved. The biggest part of her new ticket source came from Le Pen. This clearly shows that her party has moved in a more right, even far right. Now in the party, her main arm seems to be the primary opponent Joti. (Joe received 39 percent of the vote in the second round of the Republican primary.) Joti promised to set up a "French Guantanamo refugee camp" and, in tune with Zemoul, said "the French are being 'replaced' by foreign immigrants." Is it already far-right? Joti made it clear: "Now public opinion in France has taken a sharp turn to the right. To win, voters must be won over to the far right. ”

It is too obvious that public opinion in France, and indeed in Europe as a whole, continues to turn to the right. The worse the overall situation is, the more obvious and accelerated this trend will be. To put it simply, the basic internal logic of Western electoral politics is that when great difficulties are encountered, we will elect the rightists to come to power to save the situation. When the overall situation is ready, we will choose the leftists to come to power to distribute the fruits of development. There is an old proverb in France that says: "The wallet of the French people is for the right, and the heart of the French is for the left." "The COVID-19 pandemic, which has been delayed for two years, has significantly exacerbated the Frenchman's sense of crisis. And now the French need to consider more than just wallets. There is also personal and cultural safety.

The author reiterates my consistent view that the political views of the far right seem to have too many obstacles. Although it seems that it will come after all. Just as China cannot escape confrontation with the United States/even the West, France/Europe is likely to be unable to escape a head-on confrontation between Europe's indigenous peoples and the growing number of specific types of immigrants. However, the author is full of doubts about the outcome of this confrontation that is probably very fatal.

Guessing the future is always very difficult. I am trying to speculate here, what if the far right does come to power, or if some of the far right policies are implemented by other party governments. The words of the family are really for reference only.

The author feels that the real root of the current migration dilemma in Europe/the West is not immigration, but in the aging of its civilization itself. For example, if Europeans are now unwilling to have children, can they rely on immigration? If it weren't for the shortage of labor in the 1970s, how could they have invited so many immigrants in? Fifty years have passed now, and many immigrants are in their third generation, born here, raised here, and most of them have long been French. Even if they are adulterers, they are already a problem of the French in the legal sense, how can you make them "either go to jail or be deported"?

Illegal immigrants are now so difficult to repatriate, if legal immigrants need to be repatriated for crimes, is the country of origin willing to accept it? Will they say, "Our people are all following the rules here, why is it that when we get to you, the first generation still follows the rules, and the second generation begins to have so many adulterers?" Is it 'orange born in Huainan is orange, born in Huaibei is orange'? "Otherwise, what is the reason?"

Illegal immigrants are still coming. There are two reasons for this. The first is because of the war (e.g. Syria, Afghanistan). Didn't the Europeans lift up a stone and drop it on their own feet? How can you blame them? The second reason is that countries, such as sub-Saharan Africa, are too poor. This is not easy to blame directly (especially today' West), blame colonialism and do not seek truth from facts. Because those places were probably poorer before. This matter has not been solved in the near future. Unless they themselves (not fighting a civil war, and not just receiving relief, with the help of, for example, China) build infrastructure and develop the economy. For example, in the current East (South) Asian countries, are there not many illegal immigrants who continue to come?

Foreigners who have been unemployed for more than six months cancel their right of abode? deportation? Wife and children are expelled together? According to the current law, foreigners with long-term residency, except that they cannot vote, have no different civil rights and obligations from those of the French. For example, pay unemployment, pension insurance, and other various taxes. If you are unemployed for six months, you will be driven away. The right to unemployment is different? How should pensions be settled? Shouldn't it be confiscated? All kinds of maternity, housing, social subsidies, if you want to distinguish between French and foreign, then the way of payment should also be distinguished, right? Isn't legal engineering super big?

If such policies are to be formulated and implemented, will there be too much conflict in the basic values of human rights and equality that Westerners are convinced and strive to promote universally? Is there a precedent for this in the West? Aren't you afraid of attracting the scolding of the world?

Zemurs are concerned about a clash of cultures/civilizations, which does not disappear just because foreigners are legalized. You have already entered the French nationality, but how should you punish foreigners who are different in your heart?

"Integration" is not enough, it is necessary to "assimilate". What are the criteria for assimilation? Isn't it better not to leave anything but faces? Is it not the best bloodline to be intermarried?

Finally, we should not forget that because westerners have destroyed Syria and Iraq, it has bred islamic State and brought a large number of terrorist attacks to Europe. If radical exclusionary measures provoke the anger of the corresponding groups, how will the security situation in Europe evolve? The author can't bear to describe it!

What do I think of this clash of cultures/civilizations that has been being covered up/hidden, but has now clearly emerged in France/Europe, will be very difficult to understand? None of the universal values (freedom, equality, human rights, the rule of law, democracy...) do not seem to provide an effective antidote to this type of conflict!

The Reconquête movement, which took the Spaniards 770 years and countless bloody storms to complete, has become pure history and has no reference value at all. The Great European War of 80 years ago is still fresh in our minds. Could Europeans repeat the mistakes of the past?

To put it bluntly, I am full of understanding of the aspirations and efforts of Westerners to defend the vitality and value of the uniqueness of their great culture/civilization. Many years ago, I read the remarkable American historian Huntington's magnum opus, "The Clash of Civilizations...", and this conclusive quote now seems insightful: "The value of Western civilization is not that it is universal, but that it is unique." Therefore, the primary responsibility of Western leaders is not to try to reshape other civilizations in the image of the West... Rather, it preserves, preserves and revives the unique character of Western civilization. "I just hope that the intelligent European/Westerners will use their brains to come up with the appropriate way to accomplish this great mission without provoking fierce conflict, and the people of France/Europe/the world will be very fortunate!"

The author is a PhD in French history

(The article in this column is a statement of one family and does not represent the position of this newspaper)

(Editor: Summer Rain)