The time is mid-December, about to enter the coldest season of the year, and the agricultural market is also undergoing the test of "cold winter". In recent days, the pig market has continued to fall, the corn market is weak, and the wheat market has also shown higher risks. Let's take a walk and take a look.
Entering December, the rebound market that lasted nearly 2 months ended, and there was a shock downward trend, especially in the last 3 or 4 days, the scope of decline and the rate of decline were expanding, and the pig market once again experienced a bloody rain of decline. The pig price system has just released on December 11, showing that in addition to Hainan and Inner Mongolia provinces and regions spared, the remaining 28 provinces and cities have all fallen.
From the perspective of the decline, it has also increased compared with the previous few days, Guangdong, Guangxi, Guizhou and other provinces fell to 4 cents, 1 pig is more than 100 yuan; Zhejiang, Gansu, Chongqing, Yunnan and other places of pigs fell 3 cents per kilogram, most of the remaining provinces fell 2 cents, only a few provinces fell 1 cent.
In the previous article, the warning of the decline in pig prices in December has been repeatedly proposed, and it has been verified. At present, whether it is a farmer or an ordinary consumer, they are very concerned about the pig price and meat price in the period before the Spring Festival, according to the market situation, I personally believe that before the end of December, the probability of pig prices recovering is very small, and there is a certain probability of rising in the first 3 weeks of January 2022.
Regarding the expectation of low pig prices before New Year's Day, it is mainly considered from these aspects:
First, the current pig production capacity is relatively high, at the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 438 million heads, an increase of 18.2% year-on-year, and the current pig price is still above 8.5 yuan, and it is difficult to support this pig price.
Second, large pig enterprises before the end of the year out of the "impulse" to complete the task of out of the barn, although there is a large consumption pull, pig sales pressure is still large.
The third is the financial pressure at the end of the year, whether it is farmers, slaughtering enterprises, as well as traders, the funds are tight, and the financial pressure transmitted by the breeding end leads to a decline in pig prices. Fourth, the pressure of "big fat" in the market is large, due to the rise in pig prices in October and November, the cost of superimposed breeding is high, and there are more cases of farmers reluctantly selling pressure fences, resulting in an increase in the amount of large fertilizers in the recent period.
It is for the above reasons that it is difficult for pig prices to have a big improvement in the period before New Year's Day.
In the past 5 days, the corn market in the northeast corn into the south, North China corn successively on the impact of factors, corn prices appeared to be a shock downward trend, especially on December 8-9, the scope and magnitude of the decline are relatively large, most of the enterprises in Shandong fell by 10-20 yuan. On December 10, the corn market fell to a narrower, according to incomplete statistics, a total of 9 companies in the entire market fell, 2 rose.
Among the 9 companies that fell: 6 in Shandong, 1 point in Binzhou Huayi Ronghai fell by 1 point, 1.450 yuan / jin; Dongping Xiangrui fell 0.7 points, 1.375 yuan / jin; Seven Star Lemon, Weifang Yingxuan, Yucheng Bowling Treasure, Dezhou Fuyang and several other companies fell by 4 or 5%. The other three falling enterprises are: Gansu Pingliang Guowei starch fell by 2 points, 1.380 yuan / jin; Hebei Guangyu starch fell 0.5 points, 1.332 yuan / jin; Henan Qixian Feitian starch fell 0.5 points, 1.380 yuan / jin.
The two companies that rose were: one was Jilin Boda Biochemical, and the tide grain rose by 1 point, 0.9898 yuan / jin; the other was The Inner Mengzha Lan Fufeng rose by 2 points, 1.235 yuan / jin.
Judging from today's corn market, although the decline has narrowed, there are still three unfavorable factors, so the price of corn before the Spring Festival is still not optimistic.
First, corn will continue to be in quantity, from December to January and February of the following year is the main time period of corn sales, and the pressure of continued sales will be very heavy.
Second, the import volume of corn is large, it is understood that the cumulative import of corn in the first 10 months was 26.23 million tons, an increase of 2.36 times year-on-year, plus the import volume of corn substitutes, a total of 40 million tons, which had an impact on the domestic corn market.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the total output of corn in 2021 was 545.1 billion jin, an increase of 23.8 billion jin over last year, an increase of 4.6%, which also made market expectations decline.
From the above aspects, in the short term, at least before the Spring Festival, it is difficult for corn prices to rise significantly.
Finally, a brief introduction to the wheat market, in recent days, the wheat market has fluctuated slightly at a relatively high price, although there has been no significant decline, but the risk is gathering higher and higher.
From December 9 to 10, some enterprises have lowered the purchase price, Shandong Dezhou Yihai Kerry 1 enterprise lowered 0.5 points, the execution price of 1.430 yuan / jin; Zhoukou Wudeli lowered 0.5 points, 1.43 yuan / jin; Hebei Shenzhou Lisheng fell by 5%, 1.415 yuan / jin, other enterprises prices are stable. At present, the mainstream price of wheat enterprises in Shandong is 1.41-1.435 yuan / jin, and the mainstream price of Henan and Hebei is 1.317-1.430 yuan / jin.
Why is it that wheat market risks are gathering? First, corn prices continue to weaken, and wheat will be dragged down due to the feed market. The second is the market operation factor, which is currently the low price period of corn, and some traders will shift their business style from wheat to corn. Third, market sentiment factors, the recent height of wheat rebound is not "higher than the front", market expectations have declined, if the market has a wind and grass, wheat prices fall back to greater risk.
Dear friends, in the recent agricultural products market, pig prices have once again ushered in a falling "bloody storm", the situation in the corn market is also very severe, and the wheat market is difficult to say optimistic, what do you think? Comments are welcome for your reference. (Text/Sannong Guangxun)