Second-hand housing transactions in first-tier cities are now picking up signs of RRR reduction will help the market bottom up

Financial Associated Press (Shanghai, reporter Wang Haichun) news, first-tier cities in November second-hand housing transactions, signs of recovery, but the year-on-year decline is still large.

Statistics from the Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center show that in November, Beijing second-hand residential network signed 11,851 units, an increase of 26.9% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 31.4%; Shanghai second-hand residential transactions of about 15,000 units, an increase of 12.5% month-on-month, a year-on-year decrease of 53.3%.

According to the statistics of Guangzhou Real Estate Intermediaries Association, Guangzhou signed a total of 6044 sets of second-hand residential buildings in November, an increase of 15.06% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 58.02%.

In addition, Shenzhen second-hand residential transactions ended seven consecutive declines. According to the official platform data of Shenzhen, in November, a total of 2118 second-hand residential buildings were traded in Shenzhen, and the number of transactions increased by 32% month-on-month compared with 1605 units in October, but the transactions were still at a historical low; the transaction area of second-hand residential buildings was 200,700 square meters, down 60.09% year-on-year.

In terms of price, according to the second-hand residential price index of 100 cities in the Middle Finger Courtyard, the average price of second-hand residential buildings in 100 cities across the country in November 2021 was 16,013 yuan / square meter; among them, the price of second-hand residential buildings in first-tier cities fell by 0.06% month-on-month.

Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, pointed out that in addition to the four first-tier cities, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in key cities such as Hangzhou, Wuhan and Chengdu has rebounded since November, showing a signal of bottom-building and stabilization; in terms of prices, these key cities have been stable and declining.

It further said that the market turnover improved slightly in November, mainly driven by two factors. "The first is that the credit environment has improved, the mainstream loan interest rates in Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu and other cities have been reduced, lending has been accelerated, some banks in Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou and other cities are cleaning up the mortgage stock in the early stage, and some banks have resumed normal lending, and the overall lending cycle has accelerated, so that some first-time home buyers and early-stage house sellers have obtained sales payments, accelerated the purchase process, and driven market transactions to recover."

"Another factor is that the weakening of the market in the third quarter has made the sellers' expectations return, whether it is the listing price or the price adjustment action is more inclined to the real level of the market, so that the friction during the transaction process is relatively reduced, and the market transaction volume is restored." The drivers affecting the transaction of second-hand houses are still there, and it is expected that the volume of transactions will continue to increase, while prices will remain stable or show a slight correction. Xu Xiaole added.

Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the second-hand housing market has been down for several months in a row, and one of the key reasons for the cooling of the national property market in the second half of this year is the tightening of credit. "Taking Beijing as an example, the speed of lending for new and second-hand houses slowed down after July, restricting market transactions."

Judging from the recent performance of the loan market, there has been a marginal improvement in personal mortgage loans. According to the statistics of the Shell Research Institute, the average lending cycle of housing loans in 100 cities in November was 68 days, which was 5 days shorter than that in October, and the lending cycle was shortened for the first time since April.

According to the monitoring data of Kerui, the lending cycle in Shanghai, Chengdu, Nanjing and other cities has been greatly shortened, such as the loan cycle in Shanghai from more than 4 months to 2 months before, and Hefei from more than 6 months to 3 months.

"The transaction volume of second-hand houses in many places has increased month-on-month, and there have been signs or trends of recovery, but it should also be noted that it has not returned to the previous level." However, the recent RRR cut by the central bank has released a positive signal to the market, and the good trend of market transactions is expected to continue. Lu Wenxi, senior research manager of Zhongyuan Real Estate, told reporters.

Lu Wenxi pointed out that the RRR cut plays an important role in restoring market confidence, but the general tone of the stable operation of the property market will not change. "The reduction of the RRR will not have too much tendency to the real estate market, and the property market will also run under the principle of 'housing and not speculation'." At the same time, the reasonable needs of the new and second-hand housing markets will be met. ”

"The RRR cut is not equivalent to the rescue of the market, but the real estate market may warm up at the end of the year, and transactions are expected to stabilize and pick up." For the real estate industry, we believe that the policy bottom has arrived, but the market bottom needs to be further tested. Yang Kewei, deputy general manager of kerui research center, said.

In Lu Wenxi's view, compared with the previous rounds of regulation, the probability of comprehensive relaxation of real estate policies is not large at present. Cities may introduce targeted policies to support self-occupied demand according to their own conditions, but the possibility of policy reversal is small. Even if the policy is favorable, the transmission of the market expectation turn will take a certain amount of time.