Omicron has added to the uncertainty in the stock market; the overall trend in the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls data has been consistent so far this year; and overseas investors believe that china's economic center of gravity will shift from growth to structural next year.
1) The buyer's big guy one-sentence view:
Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, said: "The soaring size of the US Treasury debt and the widening gap between rich and poor have exposed the United States to both economic risks and war risks; within the next five years, the United States has a 30% chance of falling into a major conflict of the "civil war"; and the uncertainty of the Omicron coronavirus variant will shake the stock market." ”
Mark Haefele, CIO of UBS Global Wealth, believes that "the Omicron virus will be difficult to change the trend of the global economy recovering in twists and turns, but the volatility of the market may be amplified, and the energy and financial sectors will continue to be optimistic next year." ”
Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics: "There was a divergence between the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls in November, but the non-farm payrolls data is generally more reliable. The unemployment rate is household survey data and fluctuates around non-farm payrolls, mainly from institutional surveys. The year-to-date employment changes in both surveys are the same."
2) On December 1, Gabriela Santos, global market strategist at JPMorgan Chase& Co., wrote that Bloomberg's consensus forecast for China's economic growth in 2021 has been cut to 8.0% from 8.4% at the beginning of the year, and its expectation for 2022 has also been lowered from 5.5% to 5.3%. In our view, GDP growth is no longer the only priority for China, and policymakers' focus has shifted to the following five areas: first, high-quality growth, during this economic slowdown, China did not use real estate and infrastructure investment to support the bottom, but continued to support small and medium-sized private enterprises, high-end manufacturing, technological innovation, domestic consumption and green sector; second, deleveraging, China achieved monetary and fiscal normalization as early as December 2020, and real estate and infrastructure investment slowed sharply In the future, while making the cake bigger, China will also improve the "cake sharing" process by reducing housing, education and health care costs, supervising large companies, etc.; fourth, decarbonization, carbon peak in 2030, carbon neutrality in 2060 led to a slowdown in the development of energy-intensive industries and a surge in energy prices; fifth, public health, China continues to take zero measures to eliminate the epidemic That limits the recovery of the service sector, but China's cumulative death toll is 3.2 per million people, well below the global level of 657.2.
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