Pork prices have risen about 40% from recent lows Expert analysis: there is plenty of supply and there is little room for rebound

Beijing, November 29 (Reporter Jiang Yong) According to the Central Radio and Television Station's Economic Voice "Tianxia Finance", the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released that as of 2 p.m. on the 29th, the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market was 24.54 yuan per kilogram, which was about 40% higher than the low point of pork prices on October 12 at 17.53 yuan per kilogram.

Ma Liyuan, a senior analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, analyzed that the pull on the consumer side is the main reason why the recent pork prices are at a higher than expected high, "After the National Day, the temperature suddenly turned cold, coupled with the low price of pork at this time, it has a certain stimulus to consumption." Families in the north have concentrated on sausages, and parts of the south will marinate bacon in advance, creating a strong pull-up in demand. ”

Bi Hui, senior analyst of Boseong Futures, analyzed that the rebound in pork prices was also affected by the channel side and the supply side, "After a wide range of snowfall weather in the northern production areas, it affected the slaughtering and transportation to a certain extent, and the magnitude and strength of the rebound in the price of pigs in the north were relatively large." After the market experienced a long decline, when there was just a sign of rebound, the market began to have certain optimistic expectations and a certain reluctance to sell. The most obvious performance is the small and medium-sized farmers, and the reluctance to sell is relatively strong. ”

The rapid rebound in pork prices has also led to a rebound in the stock price of pork concept stocks. On November 4, Makihara shares soared to 61.1 yuan per share, rebounding more than 56% from their July lows. On the same day, Wen's shares soared to 18.08 yuan per share, up about 49% from their July low.

However, farming companies remain cautious about the rebound in pork prices. Makihara said in early November that the recent rapid rise in pig prices has exceeded market expectations, and the company is still cautious about the pig market in the next 2-3 quarters.

Industry insiders analyzed that although New Year's Day and the Spring Festival are approaching, it will usher in the peak season of pork consumption, but in the case of guaranteed pork supply, prices will not rise sharply. Ma Liyuan analyzed: "In October, the pigs that increase the weight of the breeding end can be released in December and January, so the amount of pigs produced at this time may increase compared with October. At the same time, December and January are exactly the peak demand season of each year, and in the case of increased supply and demand, it is expected that the price will still be dominated by shocks, and there may not be a big rise and fall. ”

Bi Hui also pointed out that whether pork consumption can meet expectations also restricts the space for pork prices to continue to rebound. Bi Hui said: "What needs to be vigilant is that this year, especially in the process of the continuous downturn in pig prices, some consumption has been cashed in advance. When the seasonal peak season comes this year, it remains to be seen whether consumption can reach the same period of previous years. In the context of the continuous increase in the supply of the entire market, it restricts the overall rebound space of pig prices. ”

Industry insiders also pointed out that official data and institutional data show that June to July this year is the high point of breeding sows. According to the pig growth cycle, the pig output will reach a high point in April-May next year, and it is expected that around May next year, pork prices will usher in a low point.

In addition, it can also be observed from the trend of pig futures that although the wholesale price of pork is still in the process of recovering from the rise, the main contract of pig futures of Dashang institute rushed to 17670 yuan per ton on October 28, and then began to turn down. As of the close of the afternoon of the 29th, the main contract of hog futures fell 4%, closing at 16,080 yuan per ton.