Libya's election kicks off: military strongman Haftar vs. Gaddafi's son?

The Paper's reporter Yu Xiaoxuan

Libya, after a turbulent decade, plans to hold presidential elections on December 24. The elections were considered significant and, if held smoothly, would be an opportunity to create peace. But a month before the election, the situation remained uncertain, and it remains unclear whether the country's long catastrophe will end through the election.

On 21 November, Prime Minister Debeba of the Libyan Government of National Unity (Transitional Government) announced his candidacy. This follows the announcement of two of the most highly regarded politicians in Libya and abroad.

On November 14, Saif Al-Islam Gaddafi presented his presidential candidate papers to the headquarters of the Election Commission in The Libyan city of Sebhar, and after years of dormancy, Saif was back in the spotlight, and his greatest advantage was his name , the son of former President Gaddafi, who ruled Libya for 42 years.

Another high-profile candidate is Haftar, the leader of the National Army (LNA), who is backed by Russia, Egypt and other countries. The military strongman led his troops to occupy more than three-quarters of Libya's territory and besieged tripoli under the Government of National Unity for more than a year.

The mysterious son of Gaddafi appears

Saif is the second of Gaddafi's eight sons and was once considered his father's "heir." However, compared to his eccentric and pompously dressed father, Saif, who wears gold wire glasses, has a different look. Saif, who received his Ph.D. from the London School of Economics and Political Science, met former U.S. President George W. Bush and gained Western attention for his exiled English and reformist views.

The outbreak of the Arab Spring rewrote Saif's fate. In March 2011, the NATO-backed coalition, with the participation of the United States, France, Britain and Italy, began a military intervention in Libya. Saif joined his father's army and commanded military operations against the opposition.

On October 20, 2011, Said's father, the famous "King of Bedouins," Wasdafi, was captured by rebel fighters in a sewer pipe and subsequently killed by stray bullets in the confusion. Saif himself was taken prisoner in the mountains of western Libya and has not been heard from since. Over the years, rumors have swirled about Saif's whereabouts, with some speculating that he had long since been killed. But just in July of this year, Saif unexpectedly appeared in an interview with The New York Times.

In this rare conversation, Saif revealed that he had begun to reorganize his father's political forces in the "Green Revolution" movement. In 1969, it was Gaddafi's Freedom Officers' Organization that launched this revolution, overthrowing the Kingdom of Libya and ushering in Gaddafi's era. In an interview, Saif did not specify whether he would run, but he believed his father's campaign would "restore the lost unity of the country." "The rebels who arrested them a decade ago no longer have illusions about the 'revolution' and finally realize that he can be a powerful ally," he told reporters. ”

"The son of a colonel (who Has always called himself 'Colonel') has the most powerful weapon that any other competitor has, and that is the disappointment on the streets of Libya." In an editorial, Rai Al-Youm, an Arabic-language news site based in London, wrote in an editorial that a decade after Qaddafi's fall, political, regional and clan divisions across Libya have intensified, corruption has spread, and the country, which sits on vast oil wealth, remains unable to provide security, stability and public services to its people.

But there are also analyses that are not optimistic about Saif's political future, because once he is elected, it means that the legacy of the "Arab Spring" is completely denied. An opinion piece in the Saudi government-backed Asharq Al-Awsat noted that "Libya's problem is not with Saif's candidacy, but with the sustainability of the militia's authority." These organizations do not recognize democracy or the peaceful transfer of power, they succumb only to the authority of the 'revolution' – the gun remains on the shoulders of the rebels. ”

Libya's Electoral Commission announced on November 15 that it had accepted Saif's nomination documents, but he still faced considerable obstacles ahead of the election. Accused of "suppressing" protesters during the Arab Spring, the International Criminal Court has wanted and investigated Saif for crimes against humanity. But Saif told The New York Times that if a majority of Libyans choose him for president, he believes these legal issues can be resolved through negotiations.

Haftar and Israel closer to exchange support?

Just two days after Saif announced his candidacy, Haftar also issued a campaign manifesto in the eastern city of Benghazi. In a televised speech, he changed his usual outfit and wore a suit and tie to advertise himself as an "anti-corruption champion."

"If we put the treasures and wealth of our country in the hands of those who are upright, we will change the future of Libya." "I announced my candidacy for president not because I'm chasing power, but because I want to lead our people to glory, progress and prosperity," Haftar said. ”

Since 2014, the war has mainly occurred between two opposing centers of political power in eastern and western Libya: the Tripoli government, which was reorganized in 2016 with the consent of the United Nations Security Council as prime minister, and the Tughulug government, which appointed the warlord Haftar, who played an important role in the "back-and-out" movement, to lead the "National Army" and "recover territory". The warlord, who is considered to be as tough as Gaddafi, has support from Russia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and France.

In 2019, The National Army led by Haftar launched a 14-month siege offensive against Tripoli, but was eventually repelled by the Government of National Unity with Turkish intervention. As a result of Haftar's wartime iron-fisted policies, some factions in the west accused him of committing "war crimes", and the International Criminal Court, at the request of the Government of National Unity, sent representatives to investigate the alleged killing of civilians by the "National Army".

Backed by years in eastern Libya, Haftar has also gained widespread support in the region. The analysis believes that although Haftar is trying to portray himself as a political figure "loyal to all of Libya", it is still difficult to gain the approval of some factions in the west and south.

Recently, Haftar is also believed to be close to Israel. Haaretz reported on November 8 that Saddam Haftar, who claimed to be Haftar's son, visited Israel on Nov. 1. He stayed at Ben-Gurion Airport for an hour and a half, and no one knows who he met during this time. But Haaretz reported that Saddam's father, Haftar, had met with Israeli intelligence officers several times before and promised that he would normalize relations with Israel after his election, like the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and other countries, in exchange for Israel's "military and diplomatic assistance."

But Saif, one of Haftar's rivals, is also believed to have established ties with Israel. Egyptian online newspaper Arabi 21 quoted Israeli media reports as saying that both Saif and Haftar will sign a contract with an Israeli company to manage their respective campaigns. According to Israeli sources, the Israeli company will serve the two Libyan "big customers" through its branch in the UAE.

Ten years later, the divisions are still there

Ten years after the partition wars, libyan society, whether elite or grassroots, still has two diametrically opposed voices.

Nearly 3 million people in Libya, with a total population of about 7 million, have registered for the vote. Many in western Libya boycotted the candidacy of Haftar, who is entrenched in the east, but several factions in the east are staunchly supporting the legitimacy of his campaign.

According to Turkey's Daily Sabah, after Saif and Haftar announced their candidacy, hundreds of Libyans protested in Tripoli, demanding that "war criminals" be disqualified. Libyan State Council Chairman Khalid Mishli said he would boycott the vote, calling for the election to be conducted within a legal framework agreed by all parties. "We are aware of the strong desire of all Libyans for change." In a statement, Mishley said, "We want the elections to be constitutionally bound. ”

With Saif still being pursued by the International Criminal Court and Haftar's men under investigation over allegations of killing civilians, there is still doubt as to whether the two will eventually duel. On 11 November, the ICC Prosecutor's Office asked the Chairman of the Libyan National High Commission to terminate the candidacy process for Saif and Haftar. There are only four weeks left until the presidential election, and the final election method has not yet been announced.

According to the French-language newspaper El Paías, at least 66 people from all walks of life in Libya have become presidential candidates. In addition to Saif, Haftar and Saleh, politicians who have announced their candidacy include Prime Minister Debebah of the Libyan Government of National Unity, Speaker of parliament Ajira Saleh, former Interior Minister Fati Bachaga, and former Vice Chairman of the Presidential Council, Ahmed Mitiq, who have also sought foreign support in recent days.

On Nov. 12, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres told a meeting in Paris on Libya convened by French President Emmanuel Macron that libya's presidential election was an important step toward peace and stability, urging those "influential" to put the country's well-being and prosperity above their own interests.

"It is clear that the international community insists that elections should be held and has shown that it will not tolerate spoilers, which is why we are seeing more and more candidates announcing their candidacy." Hamdi, editor-in-chief of Libyan media "Libya Watcher", said in an interview with Turkish state television (TRT), "However, the problem has never been an election. Instead, what happens after the election, will the 'losers' accept the outcome or go to war to overthrow it? ”

One of the major challenges of the election is how to protect the voting process. Since Libya has no neutral military and police forces, the east and the west are divided into separate armed forces, and in the event of a dispute, they will only defend the interests of their respective tribes or groups.

Whether the upcoming election will be subject to external interference is also a cause for concern. On November 1, Mishli criticized the "malicious efforts" of some major powers and representatives of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya for their intention to influence the elections. "Some UNSMIS employees, as informants of foreign intelligence, are trying to convey the message that there will be no consensus between the Libyan Supreme Council of State and the House of Representatives, and unscathed should therefore support the enactment of electoral laws in foreign countries."

The "Arab Spring", which set off storms across the Menoa region a decade ago, seems to have entered a cold winter, and the deep-seated social and economic problems of the region remain unresolved, and some examples have proved that externally imposed changes have caused unsatisfactory water and soil.

"When Libya is unable to produce its own solutions based on its reality and its social, tribal and cultural identity, there is a possibility for outside forces to use their intended solutions to fill the gaps." But the lessons of history show that in more than one region, experiments by external forces have failed. The Saudi writer Abdul-Aziz Al-Hamis pointed out on the Sky News Arabic channel that in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Western imposed democratic means that are incompatible with reality have failed, and if they are not based on Libya's reality and particularities, such a plan will still fail in Libya.

Responsible editor: Zhang Wuwei Photo editor: Li Jingyun

Proofreader: Yan Zhang