Sometimes it is not easy to think about the eagle, there are so many bad things in his family, it does not prevent him from blocking the rabbit all over the world, this is not a big infrastructure not only to learn the rabbit, even YiLu must follow behind to join in the fun, so that I have to issue a soul torture, is this still an eagle?
First of all, it is certain that the rabbit version of the Marshall Plan appeared, essentially the cycle of one party producing alone and one party consuming alone before 2008, which is no longer sustainable
Because the more things are produced, the faster the production efficiency of the commodity will be improved, but the old United States is deindustrialization, and the distribution mechanism is malfunctioning, and the growth rate of its purchasing power cannot keep up with the improvement of production efficiency, so there will be a very obvious problem here, that is, the production side is easy to form overcapacity
In addition, if the object of export is relatively single, then it is easy to form the efficiency of production, the cost of production has decreased, but the silver earned is less and less
And if most of your export is bound to a separate party, it is undoubtedly very passive, in case one day he suddenly feels depressed for some reason, find a reason to card you casually, at this time to face is not overcapacity, but the probability is directly cool
So whether it is to alleviate overcapacity or rely too much, it is necessary to open up more other markets to make some supplements, and the rabbit version of the Marshall Plan appeared in this context, and the prospects are also quite bright
Not every country in the world needs high technology, our old saying is not to get rich, build roads first, this is the same for most countries at a lower level, and the reinforced concrete we are best at can solve their problems, which is why we, Marshall, are getting bigger and bigger
However, this made Lao Mei a little unhappy, because he knew too well what kind of benefits would be produced in this process, and wondered if he had played three birds with one hand by constantly supporting Europe and Japan? It has digested its own excess capacity, expanded the trading circle of the US dollar, and even continuously radiated its own influence
At this time when the global synchronous entry into overcapacity, the synchronous entry demand decline, and the synchronous entry into the bottleneck of science and technology, who can expand their trade circle, who may persist longer in the next era of great stagflation
But this may be even more intolerable for the old United States, we all know that the debt of the United States has reached an unprecedented 28 trillion, and the reason why there is no problem is nothing more than because he is still the reserve currency of the world, and he can continue to levy seigniorage taxes, and this situation cannot be sustained forever
Others hoard dollars because you promised to exchange these things for your high-tech, and now you don't admit it yourself, so what reason is there to continue hoarding so many dollars?
So in the long run, the more exaggerated the dollar is, the stronger the impulse of others to dollarize, then there is a problem for the old Beauty, when everyone begins to continue to de-dollarize, it is equivalent to the dollar This pool is constantly shrinking, the wool that the dollar can get will only continue to weaken with continuous reduction, and the weaker others will not hoard dollars
Then it is easy to enter a negative feedback loop, for the United States, as long as it interferes with his dollar pond, no matter who it is, it will usher in his iron fist, and using the rabbit version of the Marshall Plan as the beginning is also very clever in terms of thinking
The three pillars of the dollar are agriculture, resources, technology, that is, food, oil, and chips
Grain this piece of old beauty is indeed unique, from the information found, the endless plains, neat and consistent mechanized production, coupled with the occasional posting of silver, so that the United States has become the world's first grain exporter, accounting for 10% of the world's grain share, Brazil as the second, only 5%, like some special such as soybeans, the United States is more than 80%, such a huge market share, even if it is not a monopoly, there is no difference
And grain is not like the general electronics and the like can wait, a day without eating is hungry panic, three days do not eat may be cold, which means that a considerable number of talented, you must hoard dollars to buy grain, if you want to start from this aspect, then you have to have more production than the old United States, more affordable prices, unfortunately it is almost difficult to achieve
Oil, although we often say that new energy may eat a large piece of oil in the future, but the problem is that if you want to reach this level, the time required will not be one or two years, and it is expected to be at least ten years
Before that, no matter which country is still inseparable from oil, and lao mei unless there are some incredible behaviors like the big hair of the year, otherwise even if he is in decline, the intermediate process will take at least a long time, that is to say, before you have completely replaced oil with new energy, lao mei still has considerable ability to defend the framework of petrodollars, so it is not appropriate to fight hard with lao mei on this route
Not to mention the chip, as the carrier of the future intelligent society, is indispensable, although we are also struggling to catch up, but the high-end technology creation represented by the lithography machine is too complicated, such as the recently commonly known 28nm lithography machine (referring to the 193nm light source DUV lithography machine) is not very ideal
Because sometimes after you design it, you have to test and modify the equipment, and after these are completed, you also need to cooperate with each other in various industries. Finally, it is necessary to complete a cycle from design to sales to production, which takes time, plus because the process is low, it is estimated that there will not be much competitiveness in foreign countries at the beginning, that is to say, the probability is still to meet self-demand
But don't be too discouraged, others have been running on this track for decades, there is no obstacle on the road is impossible, now to do more or to solve the problem of yes or no, and now the lithography process, has reached the physical limit, the way forward is less and less, which itself leaves time for the latecomers, just like when we walked through the 200 years of industrialization in the United States in 40 years
So objectively speaking, in these three lines, probably only the path of replacing oil with new energy is the most direct, the clearest, but it takes a lot of time, other such as grain, lao mei is really unique, difficult to shake, and lithography machine, even if it catches up, is only the same as them, want to surpass the emergence of similar electric vehicles to replace the car this leap
And this thing of infrastructure is not the same, this is what we are best at and the old beauty is not good at, we can completely corrode the pool of dollars through these things, in fact, many people do not know, over the years, with more and more of our trade, many times, we are still on the surface to settle in dollars, but in fact, it is a process
More is the exchange of physical goods between the two sides, such as helping them build roads and bridges, they can completely exchange oil and minerals and the like directly, that is to say, the dollar has not really flowed at all, and the more partners we have, this transaction method will only continue to expand
For example, oil rose from $40 to $80, in the case of no appreciation of the dollar, it is equivalent to using twice as many dollars to buy the same things as before, and if the reserve of dollars is not enough, then you have to reserve more dollars, invisibly you have to export more goods to the United States, get more dollars, and the dollars of the old United States have a place to go
And when you choose barter, you actually replace the dollar settlement in another way, so that the dollar pond can not be reduced? If they all do this, how can the dollar still be woolen?
This makes the old beautiful grandmother can endure, but the grandfather can not tolerate, the eagle's new version of the Marshall plan is also officially released, quite a bit of complementary to his internal infrastructure, but the question is, can he really compete with the rabbit?
No matter which side, the core of this plan is to transport excess capacity, Lao Mei is a consumer country, his own old roads, have not done a good job, it is difficult to believe, he still has to export steel and cement like others, if it is really done, how to complete it?
Make three bold guesses here
The first is to help others to build infrastructure, but in fact it is only delay, more or to declare their own existence, and even when others are trading, they will go up and insert a lever, and if they can't complete it, they must also make trouble, so that others can't complete it
The second is to further open the door of convenience, so that more labor can come in, thus forming a huge infrastructure team, in the early stage, because it comes from a lower level, so the requirements are not high, it is estimated that it can be OK, but over time, it is inevitable to require higher income and higher welfare
Third, use your influence, be a second-hand contractor, transfer all the orders to the rabbit, earn a little extra money yourself, and prevent others from continuing to barter the cycle to ensure the circulation of the DOLLAR, but now it is already an era to go to the second-hand business, manufacturers and customers direct docking is not better? What do you want a middleman to do?
In general, the old Meiming knows that he can't do it, he still has to call friends to go up, more or afraid that the global trade chain will be divided into two parts, if it is like this for another five to ten years, it is estimated that the pond of the US dollar will not be half, not to mention the maintenance of the existing life, industrial upgrading will be faulty
Because he may no longer be able to leverage all the resources of the world to provide assistance for his own industrial upgrading, then his debt will become a real debt, a bit of uncontrollable, maybe this is why, I know that I can't do it, the choice on this road is no longer his