【龍騰網】報告稱人工智能“末日”可能會奪走英國工作崗位

正文翻譯

AI ‘apocalypse’ could take away almost 8m jobs in UK, says report

-Women, younger workers and lower paid are at most risk from artificial intelligence, says IPPR thinktank

報告稱，人工智能“末日”可能會奪走英國近800萬個工作崗位

——智庫公共政策研究所表示，女性、年輕員工和低薪員工受到人工智能的威脅最大

(Customer support workers are among those at risk in the first wave of AI adoption. The second wave will have a much bigger impact.)

（在第一波人工智能應用浪潮中，客戶支援人員是面臨風險的人群之一。第二波浪潮将産生更大的影響。）

新聞：

Almost 8 million UK jobs could be lost to artificial intelligence in a “jobs apocalypse”, according to a report warning that women, younger workers and those on lower wages are at most risk from automation.

一份報告警告稱，在一場“就業末日”中，英國可能會有近800萬個工作崗位被人工智能取代，女性、年輕勞工和工資較低的人受自動化影響的風險最大。

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) said that entry level, part-time and administrative jobs were most exposed to being replaced by AI under a “worst-case scenario” for the rollout of new technologies in the next three to five years.

公共政策研究所表示，在未來3到5年新技術推出的“最壞情況”下，入門級、兼職和行政工作最容易被人工智能取代。

The thinktank warned that the UK was facing a “sliding doors” moment as growing numbers of companies adopt generative AI technologies – which can read and create text, data and software code – to automate everyday workplace tasks.

該智庫警告稱，随着越來越多的公司采用生成式人工智能技術（可以閱讀和建立文本、資料和軟體代碼）将日常工作任務自動化，英國正面臨“自動門”時刻。

The report said this first wave of AI adoption was already putting jobs at risk as growing numbers of companies introduce the technology. However, a second wave could lead to the automation of more jobs amid rapid advances in AI.

該報告稱，随着越來越多的公司引入人工智能技術，這第一波人工智能應用已經使就業面臨風險。然而，随着人工智能的快速發展，第二波浪潮可能會導緻更多工作崗位的自動化。

Analysing 22,000 tasks in the economy covering every type of job, the IPPR said 11% of tasks currently done by workers were at risk. This could, though, increase to 59% of tasks in the second wave as technologies develop to handle increasingly complex processes.

公共政策研究所分析了經濟中涵蓋各種工作類型的22000項任務，稱目前由勞工完成的任務中有11%處于危險之中。然而，随着技術的發展，能夠處理越來越複雜的過程，在第二波浪潮中，這一比例可能會增加到59%。

It said routine cognitive tasks – including database management, scheduling and stocktaking – were already at risk, with potential to displace entry level and part-time jobs in secretarial work, administration and customer services.

報告稱，日常的認知任務——包括資料庫管理、日程安排和盤點——已經處于危險之中，有可能取代初級和兼職的秘書、行政和客戶服務工作。

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However, the second wave of AI adoption could impact non-routine tasks involving the creation of databases, copywriting and graphic design, which would affect increasingly higher earning jobs.

然而，人工智能的第二波應用浪潮可能會影響非正常任務，包括建立資料庫、文案和平面設計，這将影響越來越高收入的工作。

Women would be significantly more affected, as “they are more likely to work in the most exposed occupations, such as secretarial and administrative occupations”, the IPPR said.

公共政策研究所表示，女性受到的影響更大，因為“她們更有可能從事高風險職業，比如秘書和行政職業”。

In the worst-case scenario for the second wave of AI, 7.9m jobs could be displaced, the report said, with any gains for the economy from productivity improvements cancelled out with zero growth in GDP within three to five years.

報告稱，在第二波人工智能浪潮的最壞情況下，790萬個工作崗位可能會被取代，生産率提高給經濟帶來的任何收益都将被3至5年内GDP的零增長所抵消。

In a best-case scenario for full augmentation of the workforce with generative AI, no jobs would be lost, while the size of the economy could be increased by 4%, or about £92bn a year.

在最好的情況下，通過生成式人工智能充分增加勞動力，不會有工作崗位流失，而經濟規模可能增加4%，即每年增加約920億英鎊。

Sounding the alarm over the impact on workers, the left-of-centre thinktank said government action could prevent a “jobs apocalypse”, and help to harness the power of AI to boost economic growth and raise living standards.

這家立場中間偏左的智庫就人工智能對勞工的影響敲響了警鐘，稱政府的行動可以防止“就業末日”，并有助于利用人工智能的力量促進經濟增長和提高生活水準。

Carsten Jung, senior economist at IPPR, said: “Already existing generative AI could lead to big labour market disruption or it could hugely boost economic growth. Either way, it is set to be a gamechanger for millions of us.

公共政策研究所進階經濟學家卡斯滕·榮格表示：“已經存在的可生成人工智能可能會導緻勞動力市場出現重大混亂，也可能極大地推動經濟增長。不管怎樣，它都将改變我們數百萬人的遊戲規則。

“But technology isn’t destiny and a jobs apocalypse is not inevitable – government, employers and unxs have the opportunity to make crucial design decisions now that ensure we manage this new technology well. If they don’t act soon, it may be too late.”

“但技術不是命運，就業末日也不是不可避免的——政府、雇主和工會現在有機會做出關鍵的設計決策，確定我們能很好地管理這項新技術。但如果他們現在不盡快采取行動，可能就會悔之晚矣。”