宋圭武觀點128：經濟危機為什麼喜歡戰争

經濟危機為什麼喜歡戰争，因為戰争有兩大功能。一是消解了過剩産能；二是解決了失業和過剩人口問題。是以，戰争也可以看成是人類社會通過自我破壞的方式來消解經濟危機并實作社會經濟的均衡。

資本家一般比較歡迎戰争，因為戰争會為資本家帶來豐厚利潤，尤其是資本規模越大的資本家越歡迎戰争。當然，一部分資本家也會在戰争中利益受損。另外，在貧富差距大的情況下，也容易發生戰争。因為貧富差距大，必然與産能過剩和失業人口多并存。是以，世界貧富差距大，也容易發生戰争。當世界貧富差距大到一定程度時，發生世界大戰的可能性極大。目前，世界貧富差距已經很大，若貧富差距還繼續擴大，不排除最近10年内發生第三次世界大戰的可能。

目前，世界的不穩定局勢已經表明世界正處在世界大戰的前期預熱狀态，需要世界各國保持高度警惕，也需要世界各國尤其一些主要大國應高度理智，千萬不能感情沖動用事，尤其需要謹慎應對民族主義問題。從長遠看，戰争是博弈雙方最差的一種選擇，最終對誰都不好，對世界也是大破壞，這也是曆史實踐的反複證明。人類不能讓悲劇反複在曆史上演。

基于命運共同體，各國應堅定堅持好和平發展原則，同時應重點着力解決好各國國内貧富差距問題，為世界和平發展打好基礎。

如何解決貧富差距，配置設定調節是主要的手段。同時，國家也可考慮增發貨币，但增發的貨币應主要用于補貼貧困人口的基本生活。若增發的貨币更多成為資本的工具，這隻會進一步加劇貧富差距，使問題越來越糟糕，到最後，就是國内發生嚴重的政治經濟危機，甚至發生國内戰争，以至于發生世界大戰。

凱恩斯主義拯救了二戰後的資本主義，但凱恩斯主義畢竟是短期經濟學，隻具有短期效應，在長期内，并不能拯救資本主義，且隻能讓問題積累越來越嚴重。世界需要新經濟學，新經濟學應重點突出配置設定問題和就業問題，應着力縮小貧富差距問題。

另外，在技術不斷進步和資本不斷替代勞動的情況下，世界各國也需要注意節制人口。這可能雖然帶來老齡化問題，但從長期看，節制人口正效應大于負效應。因為當人口與資源存在嚴重失衡時，也容易産生争奪生存資源的戰争。同時，人口的快速增加還會帶來嚴重的失業問題，而失業增加必然又進一步加劇社會貧富差距問題。好，謝謝，謝謝。

Song Guiwu's opinion 128: Why economic crisis like war

Why economic crisis like war, because war has two major functions.One is to eliminate the excess capacity;the second is to solve the problem of unemployment and excess population.Therefore, war can also be seen as the way that human society through self-destruction to eliminate economic crisis and achieve social and economic balance. Capitalists generally welcome war, because war will bring capitalists rich profits, especially the capital scale of the capitalist more welcome war.Of course, part of the capitalists will also be hurt in the war.In addition, in the case of a large gap between the rich and poor, it is also easy to have war.Because the gap between the rich and poor is large, it is bound to coexist with excess capacity and unemployment.Therefore, the world's gap between the rich and poor is also prone to war.When the gap between the rich and the poor is large to a certain extent, the possibility of a world war is very great.At present, the gap between the rich and the poor is already large. If the gap between the rich and the poor continues to expand, the possibility of a third world war in the last 10 years can not be ruled out. At present, the unstable situation in the world has shown that the world is in the pre-war state of warm-up, which requires all countries to maintain a high degree of vigilance, and also requires all countries, especially some major countries, to be highly rational, must not act on impulse, especially need to carefully deal with the nationalistic issues.In the long run, war is the worst choice for both sides of the game, which is finally good for no one, and also a great destruction to the world, which has been repeatedly proved by historical practice.Humanity cannot let the tragedy repeatedly play in history.Based on the community of common destiny, all countries should firmly adhere to the principle of peaceful development, and at the same time should focus on solving the problem of the gap between the rich and the poor in each country, so as to lay a good foundation for world peace and development.How to solve the gap between the rich and the poor, distribution and adjustment is the main means.At the same time, countries may also consider increasing the issuance of currency, but the currency should be mainly used to subsidize the basic living of the poor.If the currency becomes more of a capital tool, it will only further aggravate the gap between the rich and the poor, making the problem worse and worse, and in the end, there will be a serious domestic political and economic crisis, or even a civil war, so that there will be a world war. Keynesianism saved capitalism after the Second World War, but Keynesianism is after all a short-term economics, only with short-term effects, in the long run, can not save capitalism, and can only make the problem more and more serious.The world needs new economics, the new economics should focus on distribution and employment issues, should focus on narrowing the gap between the rich and poor. In addition, in the context of continuous technological progress and capital constantly replace labor, countries in the world also need to pay attention to population control.Although this may bring about the aging problem, but in the long run, the positive effect of population control is greater than the negative effect.Because when there is a serious imbalance between population and resources, it is easy to produce wars for living resources.At the same time, the rapid increase of population will bring about serious unemployment, and the increase of unemployment will inevitably further aggravate the gap between the rich and poor.OK, thank you, thank you.