宋圭武观点128：经济危机为什么喜欢战争

经济危机为什么喜欢战争，因为战争有两大功能。一是消解了过剩产能；二是解决了失业和过剩人口问题。所以，战争也可以看成是人类社会通过自我破坏的方式来消解经济危机并实现社会经济的均衡。

资本家一般比较欢迎战争，因为战争会为资本家带来丰厚利润，尤其是资本规模越大的资本家越欢迎战争。当然，一部分资本家也会在战争中利益受损。另外，在贫富差距大的情况下，也容易发生战争。因为贫富差距大，必然与产能过剩和失业人口多并存。所以，世界贫富差距大，也容易发生战争。当世界贫富差距大到一定程度时，发生世界大战的可能性极大。目前，世界贫富差距已经很大，若贫富差距还继续扩大，不排除最近10年内发生第三次世界大战的可能。

目前，世界的不稳定局势已经表明世界正处在世界大战的前期预热状态，需要世界各国保持高度警惕，也需要世界各国尤其一些主要大国应高度理智，千万不能感情冲动用事，尤其需要谨慎应对民族主义问题。从长远看，战争是博弈双方最差的一种选择，最终对谁都不好，对世界也是大破坏，这也是历史实践的反复证明。人类不能让悲剧反复在历史上演。

基于命运共同体，各国应坚定坚持好和平发展原则，同时应重点着力解决好各国国内贫富差距问题，为世界和平发展打好基础。

如何解决贫富差距，分配调节是主要的手段。同时，国家也可考虑增发货币，但增发的货币应主要用于补贴贫困人口的基本生活。若增发的货币更多成为资本的工具，这只会进一步加剧贫富差距，使问题越来越糟糕，到最后，就是国内发生严重的政治经济危机，甚至发生国内战争，以至于发生世界大战。

凯恩斯主义拯救了二战后的资本主义，但凯恩斯主义毕竟是短期经济学，只具有短期效应，在长期内，并不能拯救资本主义，且只能让问题积累越来越严重。世界需要新经济学，新经济学应重点突出分配问题和就业问题，应着力缩小贫富差距问题。

另外，在技术不断进步和资本不断替代劳动的情况下，世界各国也需要注意节制人口。这可能虽然带来老龄化问题，但从长期看，节制人口正效应大于负效应。因为当人口与资源存在严重失衡时，也容易产生争夺生存资源的战争。同时，人口的快速增加还会带来严重的失业问题，而失业增加必然又进一步加剧社会贫富差距问题。好，谢谢，谢谢。

Song Guiwu's opinion 128: Why economic crisis like war

Why economic crisis like war, because war has two major functions.One is to eliminate the excess capacity;the second is to solve the problem of unemployment and excess population.Therefore, war can also be seen as the way that human society through self-destruction to eliminate economic crisis and achieve social and economic balance. Capitalists generally welcome war, because war will bring capitalists rich profits, especially the capital scale of the capitalist more welcome war.Of course, part of the capitalists will also be hurt in the war.In addition, in the case of a large gap between the rich and poor, it is also easy to have war.Because the gap between the rich and poor is large, it is bound to coexist with excess capacity and unemployment.Therefore, the world's gap between the rich and poor is also prone to war.When the gap between the rich and the poor is large to a certain extent, the possibility of a world war is very great.At present, the gap between the rich and the poor is already large. If the gap between the rich and the poor continues to expand, the possibility of a third world war in the last 10 years can not be ruled out. At present, the unstable situation in the world has shown that the world is in the pre-war state of warm-up, which requires all countries to maintain a high degree of vigilance, and also requires all countries, especially some major countries, to be highly rational, must not act on impulse, especially need to carefully deal with the nationalistic issues.In the long run, war is the worst choice for both sides of the game, which is finally good for no one, and also a great destruction to the world, which has been repeatedly proved by historical practice.Humanity cannot let the tragedy repeatedly play in history.Based on the community of common destiny, all countries should firmly adhere to the principle of peaceful development, and at the same time should focus on solving the problem of the gap between the rich and the poor in each country, so as to lay a good foundation for world peace and development.How to solve the gap between the rich and the poor, distribution and adjustment is the main means.At the same time, countries may also consider increasing the issuance of currency, but the currency should be mainly used to subsidize the basic living of the poor.If the currency becomes more of a capital tool, it will only further aggravate the gap between the rich and the poor, making the problem worse and worse, and in the end, there will be a serious domestic political and economic crisis, or even a civil war, so that there will be a world war. Keynesianism saved capitalism after the Second World War, but Keynesianism is after all a short-term economics, only with short-term effects, in the long run, can not save capitalism, and can only make the problem more and more serious.The world needs new economics, the new economics should focus on distribution and employment issues, should focus on narrowing the gap between the rich and poor. In addition, in the context of continuous technological progress and capital constantly replace labor, countries in the world also need to pay attention to population control.Although this may bring about the aging problem, but in the long run, the positive effect of population control is greater than the negative effect.Because when there is a serious imbalance between population and resources, it is easy to produce wars for living resources.At the same time, the rapid increase of population will bring about serious unemployment, and the increase of unemployment will inevitably further aggravate the gap between the rich and poor.OK, thank you, thank you.