溢價20%仍大漲，誰在瘋買日經ETF？

開年以來A股連續調整，隔壁日本股市卻連創新高。

這樣的背景下，能在A股直接參與日股行情的ETF熱度陡增。

昨天盤後就有截圖在網上流傳，某券商舉辦的ETF大賽，前10名紛紛重倉日經ETF，引起不小關注。

而今天，情況就更誇張了——在大幅溢價且基金公司已提示風險的情況下，一隻日經ETF仍在放量大漲。

這就是本文的主角，日經ETF（513520）。

首先聲明：這裡不存在“拉踩”誰，畢竟炒股都是為了賺錢，哪裡漲得多、漲得快，熱錢總會第一時間加入；甚至這些熱錢大多都是借籌碼博弈，賺一筆就跑，并非長期看好某個标的。

請牢記這個前提，我們再來看日經ETF。

首先，日本股市開年以來連續上漲已是事實。截至昨天，日經225指數7個交易日漲逾7%，創34年來新高。

日本股市為何大漲，不是本文讨論的重點，簡單歸納——除了日本企業的變化（基本面），海外投資者的爆買才是這輪上漲的最大推手；突然的大幅上行，又讓更多害怕踏空的海外資金紛至沓來，進一步“空中加油”。

話雖如此，今天日經225指數陷入調整，是“倒車接人”或是“倒車撞人”還有待觀察。

而A股這邊，早盤4隻日經ETF原本随跟蹤的指數走跌，唯獨日經ETF（513520）異動明顯，開盤3分鐘就翻紅拉升，此後運作在4%上方，一度漲近9%，也帶動另外3隻産品盤中翻紅。

截自1月16日盤中

昨天，該産品就尾盤異動，差點觸及“漲停”位置，成交額較上周五大增。

但今天，這隻ETF的異動進一步加劇，來看幾個名額：

1.成交額半天超24億，是1月初的幾十倍，也是基金規模的好幾倍；

2.溢價率超20%；

3.更重要的，換手率超300%。

聰明的朋友應該發現盲點了：這類投資境外的場内ETF（QDII）是“T+0”機制，當天買當天就能賣，是以籌碼在日内進行了反複交換，刷出了誇張的換手率資料。

看似振幅隻有13%，但踩對節奏的高頻交易可以賺到的收益不止13%（當然節奏踩錯了也會虧）。

打一個不太恰當的比喻，這隻ETF今天就像站上熱點的“日經轉債”，如果你經常參與可轉債交易（也是T+0），應該不會感覺陌生。

是以如果隻是日内套利，溢價率這一名額的警示作用也會有所淡化。

另一個可供參考的例子是東南亞科技ETF（513730），今天換手率同樣大爆發，振幅與成交額也明顯放大。

該産品跟蹤的新交所泛東南亞科技指數，開年以來漲幅不如日經225，但單日表現也“轉債化”了。

但有投資者可能還是納悶：溢價率這麼高了，基金公司也在反複公告提示風險，為什麼資金還是不管不顧，不怕“淨值回歸”出現大跌嗎？

有觀點指出，當下QDII因為限額，才會出現套利機制缺失。

（所謂溢價套利，簡單來說就是一級市場低價買股票，然後申購換成ETF份額，再賣出ETF。實際操作中QDII-ETF稍微複雜一些。）

原本ETF産品存在溢（折）價套利機制，但現狀是QDII額度不夠，很多基金公司QDII基金多，不夠用，配置設定給某一個基金的就特别少。

如今天重點講的日經ETF，官網申贖清單顯示單日隻允許300萬份申購，而今天半日場内成交量超過1000萬手。

“全市場就300萬份，根本搶不到，套利資金太小，無法砸平溢價。”

是以如果想讓淨值回歸，辦法也簡單，就是放開單日申購上限。

畢竟，去年就有類似情況發生。

2023年5月12日開始，日經225ETF易方達（513000）的溢價率一舉突破1%；此後在市場追捧下，溢價率最高于5月19日達到22.41%。

但情緒高點之後，市場回複平靜，ETF價格向淨值靠攏，經過大約一周，該ETF的溢價率重新回到1%以下水準。

這期間發生了什麼？筆者查了查：

5月12日至5月19日，“溢價期”，官網顯示該産品的單日累計申購上限均為50萬份。

但到了下一個交易日（5月22日），産品申購上限突然放大20倍，來到1000萬份。

随着可以執行溢價套利的人陡增，該産品當天直接大跌9.84%；第二天續跌7.48%，順利抹平溢價。

是以得出結論：

一是，即便你看好海外資産，常識而言，溢價率越高風險也越大，因為總會回歸的。

是以更穩妥的思路是，要麼選溢價率更低的ETF買入，要麼等一波調整後再抄底；

二是，如果你是在日經ETF大漲之後才知道有這麼個産品，說明投資前的功課沒有做足，這時候跟風買入，風險也比先買者更大。

當然，如果你隻把這些QDII-ETF視為可轉債式的日内交易，能否賺錢還是取決于你的手藝。

回到産品本身，最後分享一點小彩蛋。

由于ETF産品不像普通個股，異動後會通過每日龍虎榜披露買賣方席位，近這兩天究竟誰在爆買，其實是個謎，隻能說都是嗅覺靈敏的短線“聰明錢”。

遊資、散戶之外，事實上，近年來頭部私募也開始通過QDII産品實作更全球化的投資。

比如日經ETF（513520）去年二季報顯示，截至當季末，華潤信托-景林樂享豐收信托計劃持有該基金576.08萬份，占該基金上市總份額的1.66%。

值得注意的是，該産品還出現了私募大佬但斌（東方港灣）的身影。

據報道，私募排排網資料顯示，截至去年底，有業績展示的85家百億私募去年整體收益為-0.77%，而但斌旗下的東方港灣去年平均收益為22%，奪得了百億私募冠軍。整體收益較高的主要原因是但斌投資了美國市場。

換個角度看，連布局日本股市的機構資金都相對小衆，普通投資者更應做足準備再出手，而不是非理性的跟風。

投資有風險，獨立判斷很重要

本文僅供參考，不構成買賣依據，入市風險自擔。

封面圖檔來源：

行情軟體截圖

每經記者  趙雲   每經編輯 肖芮冬

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rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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