The premium of 20% is still soaring, who is crazy to buy Nikkei ETF?

Since the beginning of the year, A-shares have continued to adjust, but the Japanese stock market next door has hit new highs.

In this context, the popularity of ETFs that can directly participate in the Japanese stock market in A-shares has increased sharply.

Yesterday, screenshots circulated on the Internet after hours, and the top 10 in the ETF competition held by a brokerage company have heavy positions in Nikkei ETFs, which has attracted a lot of attention.

Today, the situation is even more exaggerated - a Nikkei ETF is still rising sharply in the face of a large premium and fund companies have warned of risks.

This is the protagonist of this article, Nikkei ETF (513520).

First of all, it is stated that there is no such thing as "stepping on" anyone, after all, stock speculation is all about making money, where it rises much and fast, hot money will always join in the first time; and even most of these hot money are borrowed from chips to gamble, make a sum and run, not long-term optimistic about a certain target.

With this premise in mind, let's take a look at the Nikkei ETF.

First of all, it is a fact that the Japanese stock market has risen continuously since the beginning of the year. As of yesterday, the Nikkei 225 index rose more than 7% in seven trading days, hitting a 34-year high.

Why the Japanese stock market has risen sharply is not the focus of this article, but it can be summarized simply - in addition to the changes (fundamentals) of Japanese companies, the explosion of overseas investors is the biggest driver of this round of rise;

Having said that, it remains to be seen whether the Nikkei 225 index is in a correction today, whether it will be "reversing to pick up people" or "reversing to hit people".

On the A-share side, the 4 Nikkei ETFs originally fell with the tracking index in early trading, but the Nikkei ETF (513520) changed significantly, turning red and rising in the opening 3 minutes, and then running above 4%, once rising nearly 9%, which also drove the other 3 products to turn red intraday.

Taken intraday on January 16

Yesterday, the product moved at the end of the day, almost touching the "limit" position, and the turnover increased from last Friday.

But today, the ETF's volatility has intensified, let's look at a few indicators:

1. The turnover exceeded 2.4 billion in half a day, dozens of times that of the beginning of January, and several times the size of the fund;

2. The premium rate is over 20%;

3. More importantly, more than 300% true.

Smart friends should find the blind spot: this kind of overseas on-exchange ETF (QDII) is a "T+0" mechanism, which can be sold on the same day of buying, so the chips are repeatedly exchanged within the day, and the exaggerated turnover rate data is brushed.

It seems that the amplitude is only 13%, but high-frequency trading with the right rhythm can earn more than 13% (of course, if you step on the wrong rhythm, you will also lose).

To use an inappropriate analogy, this ETF is like a hot "Nikkei convertible bond" today, and if you often participate in convertible bond trading (also T+0), you should not feel unfamiliar.

Therefore, if it is only intraday arbitrage, the warning effect of the premium rate indicator will also be diluted.

Another example for reference is the Southeast Asia Technology ETF (513730), which also exploded in turnover today, and the amplitude and turnover were also significantly amplified.

The SGX Pan-Southeast Asia Technology Index, which is tracked by this product, has not risen as much as Nikkei 225 since the beginning of the year, but its single-day performance has also been "converted into bonds".

However, some investors may still wonder: the premium rate is so high, and the fund company is also repeatedly announcing the risk, why do the funds still ignore it and are not afraid of a sharp drop in the "net value return"?

It is pointed out that the current QDII will have a lack of arbitrage mechanism because of the limit.

(The so-called premium arbitrage, simply put, is to buy stocks at a low price in the primary market, then subscribe for ETF shares, and then sell ETFs.) In practice, QDII-ETFs are slightly more complicated. ）

Originally, ETF products had a premium (discount) arbitrage mechanism, but the current situation is that the QDII quota is insufficient, and many fund companies have too many QDII funds, which are not enough, and there are very few allocated to a certain fund.

For example, the Nikkei ETF that we will focus on today, the subscription and redemption list on the official website shows that only 3 million subscriptions are allowed in a single day, and today's half-day trading volume exceeded 10 million lots.

"There are 3 million shares in the whole market, and you can't grab them at all, and the arbitrage funds are too small to smash the premium. ”

Therefore, if you want to return the net worth, the solution is simple, which is to release the single-day subscription limit.

After all, something similar happened last year.

Starting from May 12, 2023, the premium rate of Nikkei 225 ETF E Fund (513000) exceeded 1% in one fell swoop, and since then, the premium rate has reached 22.41% on May 19.

However, after the sentiment high, the market calmed down, and the ETF price moved closer to the net value, and after about a week, the premium rate of the ETF returned to below the 1% level.

What happened during this period?

From May 12th to May 19th, the "premium period", the official website shows that the cumulative subscription limit of the product in a single day is 500,000 shares.

But on the next trading day (May 22), the product subscription limit suddenly increased by 20 times to 10 million shares.

With the sharp increase in the number of people who can perform premium arbitrage, the product fell directly by 9.84% on the same day, and continued to fall by 7.48% the next day, successfully erasing the premium.

So to conclude:

First, even if you are optimistic about overseas assets, common sense says that the higher the premium rate, the greater the risk, because there will always be a return.

Therefore, a more prudent way of thinking is to either choose an ETF with a lower premium rate to buy, or wait for a wave of adjustment before buying the bottom;

Second, if you only know that there is such a product after the Nikkei ETF has risen sharply, it means that you have not done enough homework before investing, and the risk of following the trend to buy at this time is greater than that of the first buyer.

Of course, if you only think of these QDII-ETFs as convertible bond-style day trading, whether you can make money or not depends on your craft.

Back to the product itself, and a little easter egg at the end.

Since ETF products are not like ordinary stocks, they will disclose the seats of buyers and sellers through the daily dragon and tiger list after the change, and it is actually a mystery who is buying in the past two days, and it can only be said that they are short-term "smart money" with a keen sense of smell.

In addition to floating capital and retail investors, in fact, in recent years, leading private equity companies have also begun to achieve more global investment through QDII products.

For example, the Nikkei ETF (513520) reported in the second quarter of last year that as of the end of the quarter, China Resources Trust - Jinglin Happy Harvest Trust planned to hold 5.7608 million shares of the fund, accounting for 1.66% of the total listed shares of the fund.

It is worth noting that the product also appeared in the figure of private equity boss Dan Bin (Oriental Harbor).

According to reports, the data of the private placement network shows that as of the end of last year, the overall income of 85 private placements with performance was -0.77% last year, while the average income of Oriental Harbor under Dan Bin was 22% last year, winning the 10 billion private placement championship. The main reason for the higher overall return is Dan Bin's investment in the U.S. market.

From another point of view, even the institutional funds that deploy the Japanese stock market are relatively niche, and ordinary investors should be more prepared to make a move than irrationally follow the trend.

Investments are risky, and independent judgment is important

This article is for reference only and does not constitute a basis for trading, and you enter the market at your own risk.

Cover Image Credit:

Screenshot of the market software

Every reporter Zhao Yun and every editor Xiao Ruidong

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