溢价20%仍大涨，谁在疯买日经ETF？

开年以来A股连续调整，隔壁日本股市却连创新高。

这样的背景下，能在A股直接参与日股行情的ETF热度陡增。

昨天盘后就有截图在网上流传，某券商举办的ETF大赛，前10名纷纷重仓日经ETF，引起不小关注。

而今天，情况就更夸张了——在大幅溢价且基金公司已提示风险的情况下，一只日经ETF仍在放量大涨。

这就是本文的主角，日经ETF（513520）。

首先声明：这里不存在“拉踩”谁，毕竟炒股都是为了赚钱，哪里涨得多、涨得快，热钱总会第一时间加入；甚至这些热钱大多都是借筹码博弈，赚一笔就跑，并非长期看好某个标的。

请牢记这个前提，我们再来看日经ETF。

首先，日本股市开年以来连续上涨已是事实。截至昨天，日经225指数7个交易日涨逾7%，创34年来新高。

日本股市为何大涨，不是本文讨论的重点，简单归纳——除了日本企业的变化（基本面），海外投资者的爆买才是这轮上涨的最大推手；突然的大幅上行，又让更多害怕踏空的海外资金纷至沓来，进一步“空中加油”。

话虽如此，今天日经225指数陷入调整，是“倒车接人”或是“倒车撞人”还有待观察。

而A股这边，早盘4只日经ETF原本随跟踪的指数走跌，唯独日经ETF（513520）异动明显，开盘3分钟就翻红拉升，此后运行在4%上方，一度涨近9%，也带动另外3只产品盘中翻红。

截自1月16日盘中

昨天，该产品就尾盘异动，差点触及“涨停”位置，成交额较上周五大增。

但今天，这只ETF的异动进一步加剧，来看几个指标：

1.成交额半天超24亿，是1月初的几十倍，也是基金规模的好几倍；

2.溢价率超20%；

3.更重要的，换手率超300%。

聪明的朋友应该发现盲点了：这类投资境外的场内ETF（QDII）是“T+0”机制，当天买当天就能卖，因此筹码在日内进行了反复交换，刷出了夸张的换手率数据。

看似振幅只有13%，但踩对节奏的高频交易可以赚到的收益不止13%（当然节奏踩错了也会亏）。

打一个不太恰当的比喻，这只ETF今天就像站上热点的“日经转债”，如果你经常参与可转债交易（也是T+0），应该不会感觉陌生。

所以如果只是日内套利，溢价率这一指标的警示作用也会有所淡化。

另一个可供参考的例子是东南亚科技ETF（513730），今天换手率同样大爆发，振幅与成交额也明显放大。

该产品跟踪的新交所泛东南亚科技指数，开年以来涨幅不如日经225，但单日表现也“转债化”了。

但有投资者可能还是纳闷：溢价率这么高了，基金公司也在反复公告提示风险，为什么资金还是不管不顾，不怕“净值回归”出现大跌吗？

有观点指出，当下QDII因为限额，才会出现套利机制缺失。

（所谓溢价套利，简单来说就是一级市场低价买股票，然后申购换成ETF份额，再卖出ETF。实际操作中QDII-ETF稍微复杂一些。）

原本ETF产品存在溢（折）价套利机制，但现状是QDII额度不够，很多基金公司QDII基金多，不够用，分配给某一个基金的就特别少。

如今天重点讲的日经ETF，官网申赎清单显示单日只允许300万份申购，而今天半日场内成交量超过1000万手。

“全市场就300万份，根本抢不到，套利资金太小，无法砸平溢价。”

所以如果想让净值回归，办法也简单，就是放开单日申购上限。

毕竟，去年就有类似情况发生。

2023年5月12日开始，日经225ETF易方达（513000）的溢价率一举突破1%；此后在市场追捧下，溢价率最高于5月19日达到22.41%。

但情绪高点之后，市场回复平静，ETF价格向净值靠拢，经过大约一周，该ETF的溢价率重新回到1%以下水平。

这期间发生了什么？笔者查了查：

5月12日至5月19日，“溢价期”，官网显示该产品的单日累计申购上限均为50万份。

但到了下一个交易日（5月22日），产品申购上限突然放大20倍，来到1000万份。

随着可以执行溢价套利的人陡增，该产品当天直接大跌9.84%；第二天续跌7.48%，顺利抹平溢价。

所以得出结论：

一是，即便你看好海外资产，常识而言，溢价率越高风险也越大，因为总会回归的。

所以更稳妥的思路是，要么选溢价率更低的ETF买入，要么等一波调整后再抄底；

二是，如果你是在日经ETF大涨之后才知道有这么个产品，说明投资前的功课没有做足，这时候跟风买入，风险也比先买者更大。

当然，如果你只把这些QDII-ETF视为可转债式的日内交易，能否赚钱还是取决于你的手艺。

回到产品本身，最后分享一点小彩蛋。

由于ETF产品不像普通个股，异动后会通过每日龙虎榜披露买卖方席位，近这两天究竟谁在爆买，其实是个谜，只能说都是嗅觉灵敏的短线“聪明钱”。

游资、散户之外，事实上，近年来头部私募也开始通过QDII产品实现更全球化的投资。

比如日经ETF（513520）去年二季报显示，截至当季末，华润信托-景林乐享丰收信托计划持有该基金576.08万份，占该基金上市总份额的1.66%。

值得注意的是，该产品还出现了私募大佬但斌（东方港湾）的身影。

据报道，私募排排网数据显示，截至去年底，有业绩展示的85家百亿私募去年整体收益为-0.77%，而但斌旗下的东方港湾去年平均收益为22%，夺得了百亿私募冠军。整体收益较高的主要原因是但斌投资了美国市场。

换个角度看，连布局日本股市的机构资金都相对小众，普通投资者更应做足准备再出手，而不是非理性的跟风。

投资有风险，独立判断很重要

本文仅供参考，不构成买卖依据，入市风险自担。

封面图片来源：

行情软件截图

每经记者  赵云   每经编辑 肖芮冬

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rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-theme=dark],body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-theme=dark]{--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px){body:not(.pages_skin_pc)body:not(.pages_skin_pc){background:#191919;background:var(--weui-BG-2)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body[data-weui-mode=care]:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: 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#7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--discussInput-BG: rgba(255, 255, 255, .03)}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--nickName-FG: #959595}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){.wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: 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