文 / 柳下嬰（微信公衆号：王不留）
同日（2023年2月4日），一篇發表在《經濟學人》日報（公衆号Daily Briefing——譯者注）特别報道欄目中題為《重振美國經濟》（“Remaking America’s economy”）的文章也寫到：
President Joe Biden has a plan to change America’s economy. Audaciously, he has decided that the way to cope with three problems which are too hard to tackle separately is to deal with them all at once.
改變美國經濟，總統拜登自有良策。他大膽地認為，對于橫在面前的三個難題，與其各個擊破，不如畢其功于一役。
那麼，什麼是橫在面前的“三個難題”？為什麼說拜登“畢其功于一役”的想法是大膽的？拜登的這個宏偉計劃真的能夠拯救全世界嗎？
請随我閱讀下面正文……
Big, green and mean
宏偉、綠色而狹隘
Biden’s plan to remake the economy is ambitious, risky, confused and selfish—but it could help save the planet
拜登的重振經濟計劃可謂雄心勃勃、充滿風險、令人困惑而又狹隘自私——但是，它可能有助于拯救全世界
Get behind the wheel of an electric vehicle made in Detroit and drive south. The outline of a city that was once a byword for industrial decline fades in the rear-view mirror. Head into Ohio, where the battery under your feet was made. The semiconductors that regulate its charging speed were made there too, in a vast new factory that counts the Pentagon among its biggest customers. Recharge with electricity transmitted from one of West Virginia’s new nuclear plants, then start the long journey into the heartlands. After the endless wind farms of Kansas, you drive through Oklahoma’s vast solar fields, then loop back to the gulf coast. The trip ends by the water, the bright sun glinting off a spanking-new green-hydrogen plant.
坐進一輛底特律生産的電動汽車，然後向南行駛。在後視鏡中，一個曾經是工業衰退代名詞的城市（底特律）輪廓逐漸消失。下一站，俄亥俄，你腳下的電池就是在那裡制造的。控制其充電速度的半導體也是在那裡制造的。那是一個龐大的新工廠，連五角大樓都是它最大的客戶之一。用西弗吉尼亞新核電廠傳輸的電力給汽車充電之後，你開始進入美國的心髒地帶繼續漫長的旅程。穿過堪薩斯一望無際的風力發電場，你又開車進入了俄克拉荷馬廣闊的太陽能發電場，然後折回到墨西哥灣沿岸。你的旅程在水畔結束，明亮的太陽照耀着一座嶄新的綠色氫能發電廠。
This is America in 2033, if the Biden administration has its way. In the past two years Congress has passed three bills, on infrastructure, semiconductor chips and greenery, that will make $2trn available to reshape the economy. The idea is that, with government action, America can reindustrialise itself, bolster national security, revive left-behind places, cheer up blue-collar workers and dramatically reduce its carbon emissions all at the same time. It is the country’s most ambitious and dirigiste industrial policy for many decades. In a series of articles beginning this week, The Economist will be assessing President Joe Biden’s giant bet on transforming America.
這就是美國2033年的樣子（哈！原來第一段是10年後的願景啊！——譯者短評），前提是拜登政府尚能獨行其是。在過去的兩年裡，美國國會已經通過了三個法案，分别涉及基礎設施、半導體晶片和綠色經濟，這三個法案将為重振經濟提供2萬億美元的資金。整體的設想是，通過政府行為，美國可以實作自身的再工業化，加強國家安全，振興落後地區，鼓舞藍領勞工，同時大幅減少碳排放。這是該國幾十年來最雄心勃勃、也是國家幹預最強的産業政策。在本周開始的一系列文章中，《經濟學人》将對拜登總統的這場美國轉型豪賭進行評估。
Mr Biden is taking an epoch-making political gamble. He is acting on so many fronts because he had no choice. The only way to build a majority in Congress was to bolt a Democratic desire to act on climate change on to the need to deal with left-behind places in the American heartland. On its own, each of these concerns is valid. But in terms of policy, the necessity to bind them together has led America into a second-best world. The goals will sometimes conflict, the protectionism will infuriate allies and the subsidies will create inefficiencies.
拜登正在進行一場劃時代的政治賭博。他在如此多的方向同上時發力，因為他别無選擇。要想在國會中赢得多數席位，唯一的辦法就是将民主黨對氣候變化采取行動的願望與處理美國腹地落後地區問題的必要性相結合。就其本身而言，這些擔憂都是合理的。但在政策方面，将它們結合在一起的必要性使美國堕入了二流世界。這些目标有時會發生沖突，保護主義會激怒盟友，而補貼又會導緻效率低下。
To grasp the scale of what is under way, follow the money. The Infrastructure Act makes $1.2trn available over ten years for roads, bridges and cables for a new green grid. The CHIPS Act, which promotes making semiconductors in America, contains $280bn of spending. The Inflation Reduction Act contains $400bn in subsidies for green tech over ten years; some analysts suggest the true figure will be $800bn. The money is only part of the picture. With it comes a plethora of rules, from requirements that batteries be made in North America, to restrictions on tech imports and exports on grounds of national security.
要掌握發展程序的規模，就得讓錢說話。《基建法案》（The Infrastructure Act，2021年11月5日通過——譯者注）規定，在未來十年内，将有1.2萬億美元用于修建道路、橋梁和電纜，以建設一個新的綠色電網。旨在促進美國半導體制造的《晶片法案》（The CHIPS Act，2022年8月9日通過——譯者注）包含2800億美元的支出。《通脹削減法案》（The Inflation Reduction Act，2022年8月16日通過——譯者注）包含了10年内對綠色科技的4000億美元補貼，一些分析人士認為真實數字是8000億美元。錢隻是問題的一部分。随之而來的是大量的規則，從要求電池必須在北美生産，到以國家安全為由限制技術進出口。
A giant plan that has so many disparate objectives does not simply succeed or fail. Its full consequences may not become clear for many years. However, you do not have to be Ayn Rand to question whether the government is up to managing such an ambitious set of projects. For example, because American environmentalism has put preservation first, it takes more than a decade to obtain the necessary permits to connect a renewable project in Wyoming to California’s grid. Likewise, if industries are encouraged to focus on lobbying rather than innovating and competing, then costs will rise.
一個龐大的計劃，有這麼多不同的目标，很難簡單地論其成敗。它的全部後果可能在很多年内都不清楚。然而，即使你不是安•蘭德（Ayn Rand，1905年2月2日~1982年3月6日，俄裔美國人，20世紀著名哲學家、小說家——譯者注），也能質疑政府是否有能力管理這樣一系列雄心勃勃的項目。例如，由于美國的環境保護主義把保護放在第一位，要獲得必要的許可，将懷俄明的一個可再生能源項目接入加州電網需要十多年的時間。同樣，如果鼓勵企業把精力集中在遊說，而不是創新和競争上，那麼成本就會上升。
And some of the aims are contradictory. Requiring jobs to be in America would be good for some workers, no doubt. But if green products such as wind turbines become more expensive, then the green transition will become more expensive, too. And if other Western countries lose vital industries to America as they chase subsidies or duck import restrictions, then the alliances that underpin America’s security will suffer as a result.
有些目标是互相沖突的。毫無疑問，要求生産本土化對一些勞工來說是有利的。但是，如果風力渦輪機等綠色産品的造價升高，那麼向綠色經濟過渡的成本也将增加。如果其他西方國家因為追求補貼或逃避進口限制而失去重要産業，那麼支撐美國安全的聯盟也将是以受損。
Indeed, the entire enterprise may be hard to pull off for lack of affordable workers. The plan would never create lots of solid working-class jobs: in today’s manufacturing, robots staff the assembly lines. But America may also struggle to find enough of the short-term construction workers needed to build out green infrastructure. Unemployment is at 3.5%, a 50-year low. More immigration could help fill vacancies, but it is restricted. Policies intended to help women rejoin the labour market, such as early education, were stripped out of Mr Biden’s plans. Green subsidies therefore risk being diverted into higher wages.
事實上，由于缺乏負擔得起的勞工，整個宏偉目标可能很難實作。該計劃将永遠不會為勞動階層創造大量堅實的工作：在今天的制造業中，機器人充斥裝配線。美國可能也很難找到足夠的短期建築勞工來建造綠色基礎設施。失業率為3.5%，創50年來新低。更多的移民可以幫助填補空缺，但這是有限制的。旨在幫助女性重新進入勞動力市場的政策，如早期教育，被從拜登的計劃中剔除。是以，綠色補貼有可能被轉而用于提高工資。
The administration has an answer for its critics. It says that, if America can develop new technologies, drive down the cost of clean sources of energy, everyone will be better off. And America has significant advantages: a rich internal market, vast landscapes for solar and wind farms, pipelines for transporting hydrogen and reservoirs in which to store carbon. Its universities and venture capital make it a hub for green innovation. The country is already sucking in foreign investment to work alongside the subsidies. And the policy enjoys a degree of political consensus.
政府對這些批評給出了答複。它說，如果美國能夠開發新技術，降低清潔能源成本，所有人都會受益。而且美國有顯著的優勢：豐富的國内市場，廣闊的太陽能和風力發電場，輸送氫氣的管道和儲存碳的水庫。美國的大學和風險資本使它成為綠色創新的中心。美國已經在吸引外國投資，以配合政府的補貼。這一政策在一定程度上獲得了政治共識。
To help the plan realise its good intentions, three things need to happen. First, the effort going into boosting domestic industry needs to be matched by a sustained programme of trade diplomacy. One way to build a bloc in favour of a cheaper green transition would be to give foreign-made goods access to American subsidies. Second, subsidies should tilt towards technologies that are not yet commercially viable, such as new types of nuclear reactor and carbon capture and storage. Public money spent reshoring the manufacturing of solar panels that could be produced more cheaply elsewhere will be wasted. Third, to build new subsidised infrastructure, America needs reform of its permit laws, perhaps with a federal law that supersedes state and local concerns.
為了使該計劃得以很好地落實，需要做三件事。首先，振興國内工業的努力需要配合以持續的貿易外交計劃。要建立一個支援廉價綠色轉型的聯盟，方法之一是讓外國制造的産品獲得美國補貼。其次，補貼應向尚未商用的技術傾斜，如新型核反應堆與碳捕獲（carbon capture and storage，CCS，簡單來說就是将大氣中的二氧化碳壓回到安全地下場所的技術——譯者注）。将公共資金重新用于太陽能電池闆的制造，而這些太陽能電池闆本來可以在其他地方（譬如中國——譯者短評）以更低的成本生産，這将是浪費。第三，為了建設新的有補貼的基礎設施，美國需要改革其許可證法，或許可以制定一部取代州和地方政府的聯邦法律。
Half-full
餘地尚存
For better or worse, Mr Biden’s blueprint for remaking the economy will change America profoundly. It may succeed in keeping voters at home from embracing a more radical and destructive politics, and defying the gloomier predictions about the effects of climate change. But be under no illusions, it is audacious to believe that the way to cope with three problems which are too hard to tackle separately is to deal with them all at once.
無論是好是壞，拜登重振經濟的藍圖将使美國發生深刻的改變。它可能會成功地阻止國内選民接受一個更加激進和更具破壞性的政治局勢，并使人們不會對氣候變化的影響産生悲觀預測。但是，我們不要抱有幻想，因為拜登認為對于橫在面前的三個難題，可以不必各個擊破，而能畢其功于一役這個想法真是太大膽了。
王不留注
柳下嬰老師是我認識的英語大佬之一，擅長外文翻譯，愛看《經濟學人》。
根據不少考研朋友的建議，現在将其翻譯作品，上傳到百度網盤，在“柳下嬰精翻系列”中，以PDF方式免費分享。歡迎下載下傳。謝謝。