文 / 柳下婴（微信公众号：王不留）
同日（2023年2月4日），一篇发表在《经济学人》日报（公众号Daily Briefing——译者注）特别报道栏目中题为《重振美国经济》（“Remaking America’s economy”）的文章也写到：
President Joe Biden has a plan to change America’s economy. Audaciously, he has decided that the way to cope with three problems which are too hard to tackle separately is to deal with them all at once.
改变美国经济，总统拜登自有良策。他大胆地认为，对于横在面前的三个难题，与其各个击破，不如毕其功于一役。
那么，什么是横在面前的“三个难题”？为什么说拜登“毕其功于一役”的想法是大胆的？拜登的这个宏伟计划真的能够拯救全世界吗？
请随我阅读下面正文……
Big, green and mean
宏伟、绿色而狭隘
Biden’s plan to remake the economy is ambitious, risky, confused and selfish—but it could help save the planet
拜登的重振经济计划可谓雄心勃勃、充满风险、令人困惑而又狭隘自私——但是，它可能有助于拯救全世界
Get behind the wheel of an electric vehicle made in Detroit and drive south. The outline of a city that was once a byword for industrial decline fades in the rear-view mirror. Head into Ohio, where the battery under your feet was made. The semiconductors that regulate its charging speed were made there too, in a vast new factory that counts the Pentagon among its biggest customers. Recharge with electricity transmitted from one of West Virginia’s new nuclear plants, then start the long journey into the heartlands. After the endless wind farms of Kansas, you drive through Oklahoma’s vast solar fields, then loop back to the gulf coast. The trip ends by the water, the bright sun glinting off a spanking-new green-hydrogen plant.
坐进一辆底特律生产的电动汽车，然后向南行驶。在后视镜中，一个曾经是工业衰退代名词的城市（底特律）轮廓逐渐消失。下一站，俄亥俄，你脚下的电池就是在那里制造的。控制其充电速度的半导体也是在那里制造的。那是一个庞大的新工厂，连五角大楼都是它最大的客户之一。用西弗吉尼亚新核电厂传输的电力给汽车充电之后，你开始进入美国的心脏地带继续漫长的旅程。穿过堪萨斯一望无际的风力发电场，你又开车进入了俄克拉荷马广阔的太阳能发电场，然后折回到墨西哥湾沿岸。你的旅程在水畔结束，明亮的太阳照耀着一座崭新的绿色氢能发电厂。
This is America in 2033, if the Biden administration has its way. In the past two years Congress has passed three bills, on infrastructure, semiconductor chips and greenery, that will make $2trn available to reshape the economy. The idea is that, with government action, America can reindustrialise itself, bolster national security, revive left-behind places, cheer up blue-collar workers and dramatically reduce its carbon emissions all at the same time. It is the country’s most ambitious and dirigiste industrial policy for many decades. In a series of articles beginning this week, The Economist will be assessing President Joe Biden’s giant bet on transforming America.
这就是美国2033年的样子（哈！原来第一段是10年后的愿景啊！——译者短评），前提是拜登政府尚能独行其是。在过去的两年里，美国国会已经通过了三个法案，分别涉及基础设施、半导体芯片和绿色经济，这三个法案将为重振经济提供2万亿美元的资金。整体的设想是，通过政府行为，美国可以实现自身的再工业化，加强国家安全，振兴落后地区，鼓舞蓝领工人，同时大幅减少碳排放。这是该国几十年来最雄心勃勃、也是国家干预最强的产业政策。在本周开始的一系列文章中，《经济学人》将对拜登总统的这场美国转型豪赌进行评估。
Mr Biden is taking an epoch-making political gamble. He is acting on so many fronts because he had no choice. The only way to build a majority in Congress was to bolt a Democratic desire to act on climate change on to the need to deal with left-behind places in the American heartland. On its own, each of these concerns is valid. But in terms of policy, the necessity to bind them together has led America into a second-best world. The goals will sometimes conflict, the protectionism will infuriate allies and the subsidies will create inefficiencies.
拜登正在进行一场划时代的政治赌博。他在如此多的方向同上时发力，因为他别无选择。要想在国会中赢得多数席位，唯一的办法就是将民主党对气候变化采取行动的愿望与处理美国腹地落后地区问题的必要性相结合。就其本身而言，这些担忧都是合理的。但在政策方面，将它们结合在一起的必要性使美国堕入了二流世界。这些目标有时会发生冲突，保护主义会激怒盟友，而补贴又会导致效率低下。
To grasp the scale of what is under way, follow the money. The Infrastructure Act makes $1.2trn available over ten years for roads, bridges and cables for a new green grid. The CHIPS Act, which promotes making semiconductors in America, contains $280bn of spending. The Inflation Reduction Act contains $400bn in subsidies for green tech over ten years; some analysts suggest the true figure will be $800bn. The money is only part of the picture. With it comes a plethora of rules, from requirements that batteries be made in North America, to restrictions on tech imports and exports on grounds of national security.
要掌握发展进程的规模，就得让钱说话。《基建法案》（The Infrastructure Act，2021年11月5日通过——译者注）规定，在未来十年内，将有1.2万亿美元用于修建道路、桥梁和电缆，以建设一个新的绿色电网。旨在促进美国半导体制造的《芯片法案》（The CHIPS Act，2022年8月9日通过——译者注）包含2800亿美元的支出。《通胀削减法案》（The Inflation Reduction Act，2022年8月16日通过——译者注）包含了10年内对绿色科技的4000亿美元补贴，一些分析人士认为真实数字是8000亿美元。钱只是问题的一部分。随之而来的是大量的规则，从要求电池必须在北美生产，到以国家安全为由限制技术进出口。
A giant plan that has so many disparate objectives does not simply succeed or fail. Its full consequences may not become clear for many years. However, you do not have to be Ayn Rand to question whether the government is up to managing such an ambitious set of projects. For example, because American environmentalism has put preservation first, it takes more than a decade to obtain the necessary permits to connect a renewable project in Wyoming to California’s grid. Likewise, if industries are encouraged to focus on lobbying rather than innovating and competing, then costs will rise.
一个庞大的计划，有这么多不同的目标，很难简单地论其成败。它的全部后果可能在很多年内都不清楚。然而，即使你不是安•兰德（Ayn Rand，1905年2月2日~1982年3月6日，俄裔美国人，20世纪著名哲学家、小说家——译者注），也能质疑政府是否有能力管理这样一系列雄心勃勃的项目。例如，由于美国的环境保护主义把保护放在第一位，要获得必要的许可，将怀俄明的一个可再生能源项目接入加州电网需要十多年的时间。同样，如果鼓励企业把精力集中在游说，而不是创新和竞争上，那么成本就会上升。
And some of the aims are contradictory. Requiring jobs to be in America would be good for some workers, no doubt. But if green products such as wind turbines become more expensive, then the green transition will become more expensive, too. And if other Western countries lose vital industries to America as they chase subsidies or duck import restrictions, then the alliances that underpin America’s security will suffer as a result.
有些目标是相互矛盾的。毫无疑问，要求生产本土化对一些工人来说是有利的。但是，如果风力涡轮机等绿色产品的造价升高，那么向绿色经济过渡的成本也将增加。如果其他西方国家因为追求补贴或逃避进口限制而失去重要产业，那么支撑美国安全的联盟也将因此受损。
Indeed, the entire enterprise may be hard to pull off for lack of affordable workers. The plan would never create lots of solid working-class jobs: in today’s manufacturing, robots staff the assembly lines. But America may also struggle to find enough of the short-term construction workers needed to build out green infrastructure. Unemployment is at 3.5%, a 50-year low. More immigration could help fill vacancies, but it is restricted. Policies intended to help women rejoin the labour market, such as early education, were stripped out of Mr Biden’s plans. Green subsidies therefore risk being diverted into higher wages.
事实上，由于缺乏负担得起的工人，整个宏伟目标可能很难实现。该计划将永远不会为劳动阶层创造大量坚实的工作：在今天的制造业中，机器人充斥装配线。美国可能也很难找到足够的短期建筑工人来建造绿色基础设施。失业率为3.5%，创50年来新低。更多的移民可以帮助填补空缺，但这是有限制的。旨在帮助女性重新进入劳动力市场的政策，如早期教育，被从拜登的计划中剔除。因此，绿色补贴有可能被转而用于提高工资。
The administration has an answer for its critics. It says that, if America can develop new technologies, drive down the cost of clean sources of energy, everyone will be better off. And America has significant advantages: a rich internal market, vast landscapes for solar and wind farms, pipelines for transporting hydrogen and reservoirs in which to store carbon. Its universities and venture capital make it a hub for green innovation. The country is already sucking in foreign investment to work alongside the subsidies. And the policy enjoys a degree of political consensus.
政府对这些批评给出了答复。它说，如果美国能够开发新技术，降低清洁能源成本，所有人都会受益。而且美国有显著的优势：丰富的国内市场，广阔的太阳能和风力发电场，输送氢气的管道和储存碳的水库。美国的大学和风险资本使它成为绿色创新的中心。美国已经在吸引外国投资，以配合政府的补贴。这一政策在一定程度上获得了政治共识。
To help the plan realise its good intentions, three things need to happen. First, the effort going into boosting domestic industry needs to be matched by a sustained programme of trade diplomacy. One way to build a bloc in favour of a cheaper green transition would be to give foreign-made goods access to American subsidies. Second, subsidies should tilt towards technologies that are not yet commercially viable, such as new types of nuclear reactor and carbon capture and storage. Public money spent reshoring the manufacturing of solar panels that could be produced more cheaply elsewhere will be wasted. Third, to build new subsidised infrastructure, America needs reform of its permit laws, perhaps with a federal law that supersedes state and local concerns.
为了使该计划得以很好地落实，需要做三件事。首先，振兴国内工业的努力需要配合以持续的贸易外交计划。要建立一个支持廉价绿色转型的联盟，方法之一是让外国制造的产品获得美国补贴。其次，补贴应向尚未商用的技术倾斜，如新型核反应堆与碳捕获（carbon capture and storage，CCS，简单来说就是将大气中的二氧化碳压回到安全地下场所的技术——译者注）。将公共资金重新用于太阳能电池板的制造，而这些太阳能电池板本来可以在其他地方（譬如中国——译者短评）以更低的成本生产，这将是浪费。第三，为了建设新的有补贴的基础设施，美国需要改革其许可证法，或许可以制定一部取代州和地方政府的联邦法律。
Half-full
余地尚存
For better or worse, Mr Biden’s blueprint for remaking the economy will change America profoundly. It may succeed in keeping voters at home from embracing a more radical and destructive politics, and defying the gloomier predictions about the effects of climate change. But be under no illusions, it is audacious to believe that the way to cope with three problems which are too hard to tackle separately is to deal with them all at once.
无论是好是坏，拜登重振经济的蓝图将使美国发生深刻的改变。它可能会成功地阻止国内选民接受一个更加激进和更具破坏性的政治局势，并使人们不会对气候变化的影响产生悲观预测。但是，我们不要抱有幻想，因为拜登认为对于横在面前的三个难题，可以不必各个击破，而能毕其功于一役这个想法真是太大胆了。
王不留注
柳下婴老师是我认识的英语大佬之一，擅长外文翻译，爱看《经济学人》。
根据不少考研朋友的建议，现在将其翻译作品，上传到百度网盘，在“柳下婴精翻系列”中，以PDF方式免费分享。欢迎下载。谢谢。