赢家和輸家：疫情期間一些經濟體表現優劣的分析
Winners and losers
Our analysis of which economies have done best and worst during the pandemic
2020年經濟大衰退的反彈速度讓許多預測者感到驚訝。38個經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）成員國的總産出可能超過了幾個月前疫情前的水準。整個經合組織的平均失業率為5.7%，與戰後的平均失業率持平。經通脹調整後的家庭總收入高于新冠疫情爆發前的水準。盡管出現了新型冠狀病毒的幾種變種，但總體情況還是非常樂觀的。但這背後隐藏着明顯的差異。這場疫情創造了赢家和輸家——它們之間的差距可能會持續到2022年。
The speed from the enormous recession of 2020 of the economic bounceback has taken many forecasters by surprise. Output across the 38 mostly rich OECD countries combined probably surpassed its prepandemic level a few months ago. The average unemployment rate across the club, at 5.7%, is in line with the postwar average. And aggregate household income, adjusted for inflation, is above its precovid level. The overall picture has been remarkably benign, even as several variants of the coronavirus have emerged. But it hides stark differences beneath. The pandemic has created winners and losers— and the dispersion between them is likely to persist in 2022.
◎ OECD：abbr. 經濟合作與發展組織（Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development）
◎ benign：/bɪˈnaɪn/ a. ( formal ) ( of people 人 ) kind and gentle; not hurting anybody 善良的；和善的；慈祥的
◎ stark: /stɑːk/ a. unpleasant; real, and impossible to avoid 嚴酷的；赤裸裸的；真實而無法回避的
◎ dispersion: /dɪˈspɜːʃn/ n. the process by which people or things are spread over a wide area 分散；散開；散布
為了評估這些差異，《經濟學人》收集了23個富裕國家的五項經濟和金融名額資料——GDP、家庭收入、股市表現、資本支出和政府負債。我們根據每個經濟體在每項名額上的表現對其進行排名，進而得出一個總體得分（下面的表格顯示了總體排名，以及我們五個名額中的四個）。一些國家仍處于經濟低谷，而另一些國家幾乎在所有方面都比疫情前表現得好。丹麥、挪威和瑞典都接近榜首，而美國的表現也相當不錯。然而，許多歐洲大國，如英國、德國和意大利，表現得更糟。西班牙則表現得最糟糕。
In order to assess these differences, The Economist has gathered data on five economic and financial indicators—GDP, household incomes, stockmarket performance, capital spending and government indebtedness—for 23 rich countries. We have ranked each economy according to how well it has performed on each measure, creating an overall score (the table on the next page shows the overall ranking, and four of our five indicators). Some countries remain in the economic pits, while others are faring better than they were before the pandemic on almost every measure. Denmark, Norway and Sweden are all near the top, and America has also performed reasonably well. Many big European countries, however, such as Britain, Germany and Italy, have fared worse. Spain has done worst of all.
◎ indebtedness：/ɪnˈdetɪdnəs/ n. the state of being indebted 負債
◎ pit: /pɪt/ n. The pits is a slang word for the worst possible person, place, or thing. (俗語)最糟的人、地方或事情
◎ fare: /feə(r)/ V-I If you say that someone or something fares well or badly, you are referring to the degree of success they achieve in a particular situation or activity. 進展
我們的第一個名額是2019年底以來總體GDP的變化，它反映了經濟健康的大緻情況。一些國家似乎總是容易受到旅遊禁令和服務支出崩潰的影響，尤其是嚴重依賴旅遊業的南歐國家。其他地方，包括比利時和英國，新冠病毒感染和死亡人數都很高，這限制了消費者的支出。
The change in headline GDP since the end of 2019, our first indicator, offers a snapshot of economic health. Some countries always looked vulnerable to travel bans and a collapse in services spending— in particular those in southern Europe, which rely heavily on tourism. Other places, including Belgium and Britain, suffered high levels of covid19 infections and deaths, which limited consumer spending.
◎ snapshot：/ˈsnæpʃɒt/ n. If something provides you with a snapshot of a place or situation, it gives you a brief idea of what that place or situation is like. 簡況; 大緻印象
◎ vulnerable： /ˈvʌlnərəbl/ a. ~ (to sb/sth) weak and easily hurt physically or emotionally （身體上或感情上）脆弱的，易受…傷害的
精細資料有助于描繪圖檔畫面。家庭收入的變化讓人了解這個家庭的表現如何，因為它不僅包括就業收入，還包括政府的救濟金。我們的衡量标準是以實際價格計算的，根據近期通貨膨脹飙升導緻的購買力下降進行調整。
Granular data help fill in the picture. The change in household income gives a sense of how well families have done, as it includes not just earnings from employment but also handouts from governments. Our measure is in real terms, which adjusts for reduced purchasing power as a result of recent surges in inflation.
◎ granular: /ˈɡrænjələ(r)/ a. consisting of small granules ; looking or feeling like a collection of granules 由顆粒構成的；含顆粒的；似顆粒狀的
◎ handout：/ˈhændaʊt/ n. A handout is a gift of money, clothing, or food, which is given free to poor people. 施舍物; 救濟品; 救濟金
在一些國家，特别是那些疫情影響相對較小的國家，勞動力市場并沒有受到太大影響，人們可以繼續工作掙錢。自疫情爆發以來，日本的失業率幾乎沒有變化。相比之下，西班牙的失業率在2020年2月至8月期間上升了三個百分點。
In some countries, especially those where the impact of the virus was relatively slight, labour markets did not suffer too much, allowing people to continue to earn. Japan’s unemployment rate has barely budged since the pandemic began. By contrast, Spain’s rate rose by three percentage points between February and August 2020.
◎ budge：/bʌdʒ/ v. to move slightly; to make sth/sb move slightly （使）輕微移動，挪動
[形近詞] budget：n. 預算；政府預算案 adj. 廉價的，經濟型的v. 制定預算；計劃，安排
一些政府通過向人們提供巨額資金，彌補他們失去的勞動收入。這是美國的政策：盡管失業率随着經濟封鎖而飙升，但在2020年和2021年期間，家庭收到以補貼失業救濟金和刺激支票的形式超過 2 萬億美元的政府轉移支付。加拿大也做了類似的事情。然而，波羅的海諸國（the Baltics）等其他國家則将财政火力集中在保護企業現金流或擴大醫療保健能力上。奧地利和西班牙似乎既沒有保住工作，也沒有補償損失者：在這兩個國家，實際家庭收入水準仍比疫情前低6%左右。
Some governments more than made up for people’s lost labour income by sending them vast amounts of money. That was America’s strategy: although unemployment soared as the economy locked down, households received more than $2trn in government transfers in 2020 and 2021, in the form of toppedup unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques. Canada did something similar. Other countries, however, such as the Baltics, focused their fiscal firepower on protecting firms’ cash-flow or expanding healthcare capacity. Austria and Spain seemed neither to preserve jobs nor compensate the losers: in both countries real household income is still around 6% below its prepandemic level.
◎ toppedup: adj. 加滿的；充值的
◎ the Baltics: 波羅的海國家，主要指現今的立陶宛、拉脫維亞和愛沙尼亞三國，位于波羅的海最東端沿岸地區，有時包括芬蘭和波蘭。
◎ compensate：/ˈkɒmpenseɪt/ v. ~ sb (for sth) to pay sb money because they have suffered some damage, loss, injury, etc. 給（某人）賠償（或賠款）
那麼，公司呢？股市表現暗示着他們的健康狀況，以及一個國家對外國投資者的吸引力。現在，英國的股價比疫情前夕略低，這或許反映了英國脫歐引發的不确定性。英國在高增長行業的公司數量也有所減少，這些公司受益于由疫情引發的技術采用和較低的利率。美國擁有更多此類公司，其股票市場出現了大幅上漲。但它在價格飙升的北歐交易所卻一無所獲。丹麥市場上市值最大的十家公司中，有三家是醫療保健公司，這是在疫情期間可以持有的優質股票。
What about companies? Stockmarket performance hints at their health, as well as a country’s attractiveness to foreign investors. Share prices in Britain are slightly lower today than on the eve of the pandemic—a reflection, perhaps, of Brexitinduced uncertainty. Britain also hosts fewer companies in the highergrowth sectors that have benefited from pandemicinduced technology adoption and lower interest rates. America, which has more such firms, has seen its stockmarket jump. But it has nothing on the bourses of northern Europe, where prices have soared. Three of the ten biggest firms by market capitalisation on the Danish market are in health care, decent stocks to hold in a pandemic.
◎ hint：/hɪnt/ v. ~ (at sth) to suggest sth in an indirect way 暗示；透露；示意
◎ bourse：/bʊəs/ n. The bourse of a European city or region is its stock exchange. (歐洲的)證券交易所
◎ decent: /ˈdiːs(ə)nt/ a. of a good enough standard or quality 像樣的；相當不錯的；尚好的
資本支出是第四項衡量名額，它可以衡量企業對未來的樂觀程度。一些國家正處于資本支出熱潮之中：例如，在美國，企業家正注意到疫情帶來的機遇，而一些公司在居家辦公技術上投入巨資，使得居家工作效率更高。10月，高盛集團（Goldman Sachs）預測，标準普爾500指數成份股公司2022年在資本支出和研發支出方面将比2019年增加18%。相比之下，在其他一些地方的投資則更為穩重。挪威已經削減了石油和天然氣資本支出。
Capital spending, our fourth measure, provides a gauge of businesses’ optimism about the future. Some countries are in the middle of a capex boom: in America, for instance, entrepreneurs are spotting opportunities created by the pandemic, and companies are spending big on technologies that make working from home more efficient. In October Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecast that s&p 500 companies would spend 18% more on capex and research and development in 2022 than they did in 2019. Investment in some other places, by contrast, is more sedate. Norway has seen cuts to oilandgas capex.
◎ gauge： /ɡeɪdʒ/ n. ~ (of sth) a fact or an event that can be used to estimate or judge sth （用于估計或判斷的）事實，依據，尺度，标準
◎ capex：abbr. 資本支出（capital expenditures）
◎ sedate：/sɪˈdeɪt/ a. slow, calm and relaxed 鎮定的；泰然的；不慌不忙的
最後一個名額是公共債務。在其他條件相同的情況下，政府債務大幅上升比小幅上升更糟糕，因為這可能意味着未來将會有更大的增稅和支出削減。盡管美國、英國、加拿大和其他國家确實在疫情期間積累了巨額債務，但并非每個國家都是如此。瑞典公共債務占GDP的比重僅上升了6個百分點。這或許反映了一個事實，即該國在很大程度上避免了嚴格的封鎖，進而需要較少的财政支援。
Our last indicator is public indebtedness. All else equal, a big rise in government debt is worse than a small one, since it could indicate potentially larger tax rises and spending cuts in the future. Not every country has amassed enormous debts during the pandemic, even if America, Britain, Canada and others certainly have. Swedish public debt has risen by just six percentage points as a share of GDP. This is a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that the country largely avoided strict lockdowns, necessitating less fiscal support.
◎ amass: /əˈmæs/ v. to collect sth, especially in large quantities （尤指大量）積累，積聚
[近義詞] accumulate: v. 積累，積攢
◎ necessitate: /nəˈsesɪteɪt/ v. ( formal ) to make sth necessary 使成為必要
奧密克戎（Omicron）變體的傳播可能會在2022年初抑制經濟增長。但全年經濟複蘇仍有可能持續，整體情況可能會再次掩蓋變化。經合組織預計一些表現較差的國家将開始迎頭趕上：意大利預計将在2022年增長4.6%，高于經合組織3.9%的平均增速。
The spread of the Omicron variant is likely to curtail growth in early 2022 (see next story). But the economic recovery is still likely to continue over the year, and the overall picture will probably mask variation again. The OECD expects some of the worst performers to start catching up: Italy is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2022, above the average pace for the club of 3.9%.
◎ Omicron：/ˈɑːməkrɑːn/ n. the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet (O, o) 奧密克戎（冠狀病毒變種）；希臘字母表的第15個字母
◎ curtail：/kɜːˈteɪl/ v.( formal ) to limit sth or make it last for a shorter time 限制；縮短；減縮
但落後者還有很長的路要走。經合組織預計，到明年年底，三個排名最高的國家GDP總和将比疫情前高出5%。同時，三個表現最差的國家GDP總和預計僅比疫情前高出1%。換言之，疫情帶來的不均衡影響将持續下去。
But the laggards have a long way to go. By the end of next year, the OECD expects the combined GDP of our three highest-ranked countries to be 5% higher than its prepandemic level. Output for the three worst performers, meanwhile, is expected to be just 1% higher than it was before covid19. The uneven effects of the pandemic, in other words, will endure.
◎ laggard：/ˈlæɡəd/ n. a slow and lazy person, organization, etc. 遲鈍懶散者；遲緩者；渙散的機構
◎ endure: /ɪnˈdjʊə(r)/ v. ( formal ) to continue to exist for a long time 持續；持久
#每天讀一段《經濟學人》# #讀書筆記# #外語學習#
文章到這裡就結束了，它主要讨論了經合組織成員國在疫情影響下的經濟恢複情況。目前，新冠病毒出現一些變種，國内疫情也是此起彼伏，對經濟帶來影響是必然的，但中國在應對疫情方面做得還是很不錯的。希望疫情快點結束，春天快點到來。每個人都要好好照顧自己呀，祝好~ ❤
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