赢家和输家：疫情期间一些经济体表现优劣的分析
Winners and losers
Our analysis of which economies have done best and worst during the pandemic
2020年经济大衰退的反弹速度让许多预测者感到惊讶。38个经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国的总产出可能超过了几个月前疫情前的水平。整个经合组织的平均失业率为5.7%，与战后的平均失业率持平。经通胀调整后的家庭总收入高于新冠疫情爆发前的水平。尽管出现了新型冠状病毒的几种变种，但总体情况还是非常乐观的。但这背后隐藏着明显的差异。这场疫情创造了赢家和输家——它们之间的差距可能会持续到2022年。
The speed from the enormous recession of 2020 of the economic bounceback has taken many forecasters by surprise. Output across the 38 mostly rich OECD countries combined probably surpassed its prepandemic level a few months ago. The average unemployment rate across the club, at 5.7%, is in line with the postwar average. And aggregate household income, adjusted for inflation, is above its precovid level. The overall picture has been remarkably benign, even as several variants of the coronavirus have emerged. But it hides stark differences beneath. The pandemic has created winners and losers— and the dispersion between them is likely to persist in 2022.
◎ OECD：abbr. 经济合作与发展组织（Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development）
◎ benign：/bɪˈnaɪn/ a. ( formal ) ( of people 人 ) kind and gentle; not hurting anybody 善良的；和善的；慈祥的
◎ stark: /stɑːk/ a. unpleasant; real, and impossible to avoid 严酷的；赤裸裸的；真实而无法回避的
◎ dispersion: /dɪˈspɜːʃn/ n. the process by which people or things are spread over a wide area 分散；散开；散布
为了评估这些差异，《经济学人》收集了23个富裕国家的五项经济和金融指标数据——GDP、家庭收入、股市表现、资本支出和政府负债。我们根据每个经济体在每项指标上的表现对其进行排名，从而得出一个总体得分（下面的表格显示了总体排名，以及我们五个指标中的四个）。一些国家仍处于经济低谷，而另一些国家几乎在所有方面都比疫情前表现得好。丹麦、挪威和瑞典都接近榜首，而美国的表现也相当不错。然而，许多欧洲大国，如英国、德国和意大利，表现得更糟。西班牙则表现得最糟糕。
In order to assess these differences, The Economist has gathered data on five economic and financial indicators—GDP, household incomes, stockmarket performance, capital spending and government indebtedness—for 23 rich countries. We have ranked each economy according to how well it has performed on each measure, creating an overall score (the table on the next page shows the overall ranking, and four of our five indicators). Some countries remain in the economic pits, while others are faring better than they were before the pandemic on almost every measure. Denmark, Norway and Sweden are all near the top, and America has also performed reasonably well. Many big European countries, however, such as Britain, Germany and Italy, have fared worse. Spain has done worst of all.
◎ indebtedness：/ɪnˈdetɪdnəs/ n. the state of being indebted 负债
◎ pit: /pɪt/ n. The pits is a slang word for the worst possible person, place, or thing. (俗语)最糟的人、地方或事情
◎ fare: /feə(r)/ V-I If you say that someone or something fares well or badly, you are referring to the degree of success they achieve in a particular situation or activity. 进展
我们的第一个指标是2019年底以来总体GDP的变化，它反映了经济健康的大致情况。一些国家似乎总是容易受到旅游禁令和服务支出崩溃的影响，尤其是严重依赖旅游业的南欧国家。其他地方，包括比利时和英国，新冠病毒感染和死亡人数都很高，这限制了消费者的支出。
The change in headline GDP since the end of 2019, our first indicator, offers a snapshot of economic health. Some countries always looked vulnerable to travel bans and a collapse in services spending— in particular those in southern Europe, which rely heavily on tourism. Other places, including Belgium and Britain, suffered high levels of covid19 infections and deaths, which limited consumer spending.
◎ snapshot：/ˈsnæpʃɒt/ n. If something provides you with a snapshot of a place or situation, it gives you a brief idea of what that place or situation is like. 简况; 大致印象
◎ vulnerable： /ˈvʌlnərəbl/ a. ~ (to sb/sth) weak and easily hurt physically or emotionally （身体上或感情上）脆弱的，易受…伤害的
精细数据有助于描绘图片画面。家庭收入的变化让人了解这个家庭的表现如何，因为它不仅包括就业收入，还包括政府的救济金。我们的衡量标准是以实际价格计算的，根据近期通货膨胀飙升导致的购买力下降进行调整。
Granular data help fill in the picture. The change in household income gives a sense of how well families have done, as it includes not just earnings from employment but also handouts from governments. Our measure is in real terms, which adjusts for reduced purchasing power as a result of recent surges in inflation.
◎ granular: /ˈɡrænjələ(r)/ a. consisting of small granules ; looking or feeling like a collection of granules 由颗粒构成的；含颗粒的；似颗粒状的
◎ handout：/ˈhændaʊt/ n. A handout is a gift of money, clothing, or food, which is given free to poor people. 施舍物; 救济品; 救济金
在一些国家，特别是那些疫情影响相对较小的国家，劳动力市场并没有受到太大影响，人们可以继续工作挣钱。自疫情爆发以来，日本的失业率几乎没有变化。相比之下，西班牙的失业率在2020年2月至8月期间上升了三个百分点。
In some countries, especially those where the impact of the virus was relatively slight, labour markets did not suffer too much, allowing people to continue to earn. Japan’s unemployment rate has barely budged since the pandemic began. By contrast, Spain’s rate rose by three percentage points between February and August 2020.
◎ budge：/bʌdʒ/ v. to move slightly; to make sth/sb move slightly （使）轻微移动，挪动
[形近词] budget：n. 预算；政府预算案 adj. 廉价的，经济型的v. 制定预算；计划，安排
一些政府通过向人们提供巨额资金，弥补他们失去的劳动收入。这是美国的策略：尽管失业率随着经济封锁而飙升，但在2020年和2021年期间，家庭收到以补贴失业救济金和刺激支票的形式超过 2 万亿美元的政府转移支付。加拿大也做了类似的事情。然而，波罗的海诸国（the Baltics）等其他国家则将财政火力集中在保护企业现金流或扩大医疗保健能力上。奥地利和西班牙似乎既没有保住工作，也没有补偿损失者：在这两个国家，实际家庭收入水平仍比疫情前低6%左右。
Some governments more than made up for people’s lost labour income by sending them vast amounts of money. That was America’s strategy: although unemployment soared as the economy locked down, households received more than $2trn in government transfers in 2020 and 2021, in the form of toppedup unemployment benefits and stimulus cheques. Canada did something similar. Other countries, however, such as the Baltics, focused their fiscal firepower on protecting firms’ cash-flow or expanding healthcare capacity. Austria and Spain seemed neither to preserve jobs nor compensate the losers: in both countries real household income is still around 6% below its prepandemic level.
◎ toppedup: adj. 加满的；充值的
◎ the Baltics: 波罗的海国家，主要指现今的立陶宛、拉脱维亚和爱沙尼亚三国，位于波罗的海最东端沿岸地区，有时包括芬兰和波兰。
◎ compensate：/ˈkɒmpenseɪt/ v. ~ sb (for sth) to pay sb money because they have suffered some damage, loss, injury, etc. 给（某人）赔偿（或赔款）
那么，公司呢？股市表现暗示着他们的健康状况，以及一个国家对外国投资者的吸引力。现在，英国的股价比疫情前夕略低，这或许反映了英国脱欧引发的不确定性。英国在高增长行业的公司数量也有所减少，这些公司受益于由疫情引发的技术采用和较低的利率。美国拥有更多此类公司，其股票市场出现了大幅上涨。但它在价格飙升的北欧交易所却一无所获。丹麦市场上市值最大的十家公司中，有三家是医疗保健公司，这是在疫情期间可以持有的优质股票。
What about companies? Stockmarket performance hints at their health, as well as a country’s attractiveness to foreign investors. Share prices in Britain are slightly lower today than on the eve of the pandemic—a reflection, perhaps, of Brexitinduced uncertainty. Britain also hosts fewer companies in the highergrowth sectors that have benefited from pandemicinduced technology adoption and lower interest rates. America, which has more such firms, has seen its stockmarket jump. But it has nothing on the bourses of northern Europe, where prices have soared. Three of the ten biggest firms by market capitalisation on the Danish market are in health care, decent stocks to hold in a pandemic.
◎ hint：/hɪnt/ v. ~ (at sth) to suggest sth in an indirect way 暗示；透露；示意
◎ bourse：/bʊəs/ n. The bourse of a European city or region is its stock exchange. (欧洲的)证券交易所
◎ decent: /ˈdiːs(ə)nt/ a. of a good enough standard or quality 像样的；相当不错的；尚好的
资本支出是第四项衡量指标，它可以衡量企业对未来的乐观程度。一些国家正处于资本支出热潮之中：例如，在美国，企业家正注意到疫情带来的机遇，而一些公司在居家办公技术上投入巨资，使得居家工作效率更高。10月，高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）预测，标准普尔500指数成份股公司2022年在资本支出和研发支出方面将比2019年增加18%。相比之下，在其他一些地方的投资则更为稳重。挪威已经削减了石油和天然气资本支出。
Capital spending, our fourth measure, provides a gauge of businesses’ optimism about the future. Some countries are in the middle of a capex boom: in America, for instance, entrepreneurs are spotting opportunities created by the pandemic, and companies are spending big on technologies that make working from home more efficient. In October Goldman Sachs, a bank, forecast that s&p 500 companies would spend 18% more on capex and research and development in 2022 than they did in 2019. Investment in some other places, by contrast, is more sedate. Norway has seen cuts to oilandgas capex.
◎ gauge： /ɡeɪdʒ/ n. ~ (of sth) a fact or an event that can be used to estimate or judge sth （用于估计或判断的）事实，依据，尺度，标准
◎ capex：abbr. 资本支出（capital expenditures）
◎ sedate：/sɪˈdeɪt/ a. slow, calm and relaxed 镇定的；泰然的；不慌不忙的
最后一个指标是公共债务。在其他条件相同的情况下，政府债务大幅上升比小幅上升更糟糕，因为这可能意味着未来将会有更大的增税和支出削减。尽管美国、英国、加拿大和其他国家确实在疫情期间积累了巨额债务，但并非每个国家都是如此。瑞典公共债务占GDP的比重仅上升了6个百分点。这或许反映了一个事实，即该国在很大程度上避免了严格的封锁，从而需要较少的财政支持。
Our last indicator is public indebtedness. All else equal, a big rise in government debt is worse than a small one, since it could indicate potentially larger tax rises and spending cuts in the future. Not every country has amassed enormous debts during the pandemic, even if America, Britain, Canada and others certainly have. Swedish public debt has risen by just six percentage points as a share of GDP. This is a reflection, perhaps, of the fact that the country largely avoided strict lockdowns, necessitating less fiscal support.
◎ amass: /əˈmæs/ v. to collect sth, especially in large quantities （尤指大量）积累，积聚
[近义词] accumulate: v. 积累，积攒
◎ necessitate: /nəˈsesɪteɪt/ v. ( formal ) to make sth necessary 使成为必要
奥密克戎（Omicron）变体的传播可能会在2022年初抑制经济增长。但全年经济复苏仍有可能持续，整体情况可能会再次掩盖变化。经合组织预计一些表现较差的国家将开始迎头赶上：意大利预计将在2022年增长4.6%，高于经合组织3.9%的平均增速。
The spread of the Omicron variant is likely to curtail growth in early 2022 (see next story). But the economic recovery is still likely to continue over the year, and the overall picture will probably mask variation again. The OECD expects some of the worst performers to start catching up: Italy is forecast to grow by 4.6% in 2022, above the average pace for the club of 3.9%.
◎ Omicron：/ˈɑːməkrɑːn/ n. the 15th letter of the Greek alphabet (O, o) 奥密克戎（冠状病毒变种）；希腊字母表的第15个字母
◎ curtail：/kɜːˈteɪl/ v.( formal ) to limit sth or make it last for a shorter time 限制；缩短；减缩
但落后者还有很长的路要走。经合组织预计，到明年年底，三个排名最高的国家GDP总和将比疫情前高出5%。同时，三个表现最差的国家GDP总和预计仅比疫情前高出1%。换言之，疫情带来的不均衡影响将持续下去。
But the laggards have a long way to go. By the end of next year, the OECD expects the combined GDP of our three highest-ranked countries to be 5% higher than its prepandemic level. Output for the three worst performers, meanwhile, is expected to be just 1% higher than it was before covid19. The uneven effects of the pandemic, in other words, will endure.
◎ laggard：/ˈlæɡəd/ n. a slow and lazy person, organization, etc. 迟钝懒散者；迟缓者；涣散的机构
◎ endure: /ɪnˈdjʊə(r)/ v. ( formal ) to continue to exist for a long time 持续；持久
#每天读一段《经济学人》# #读书笔记# #外语学习#
文章到这里就结束了，它主要讨论了经合组织成员国在疫情影响下的经济恢复情况。目前，新冠病毒出现一些变种，国内疫情也是此起彼伏，对经济带来影响是必然的，但中国在应对疫情方面做得还是很不错的。希望疫情快点结束，春天快点到来。每个人都要好好照顾自己呀，祝好~ ❤
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