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今天小编为大家带来“精读期刊论文《基于贝叶斯方法的软件供应链风险评估》的7.2失效概率评估（2）”。
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increase knowledge, and leave beautiful.
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Today, the editor brings the "7.2 probability failu (2) of the journal paper 'Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method'".
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一、内容摘要（Content summary）
本期推文将从思维导图、精读内容、知识补充三个方面介绍精读期刊论文《基于贝叶斯方法的软件供应链风险评估》的失效概率评估（2）。
In this issue, the tweet will introduce the probability failu (2) of the journal paper "Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method" from three aspects: mind map, detailed reading content, and additional knowledge supplementation.
二、思维导图（Mind Mapping）
三、精读内容（Detailed Reading Content）
根据上一期推文的分析，作者通过具体的百分比指数分析了不同国家在各个风险因素下的表现，特别是在参与者风险、软件组件风险、操作和维护风险、物流供应链风险、软件供应链风险等方面的风险评估，并得出相应结果。其中，针对于软件供应链风险，A国的流程对SSCR的强制执行风险最高，其次是C国，供应链中风险最低的是B国，如下表所示。
Based on the analysis in the previous tweet, the authors analyzed the performance of different countries under each risk factor through specific percentage indices, especially in terms of participant risk, software component risk, operation and maintenance risk, logistics supply chain risk, and software supply chain risk for the risk assessment, and came up with the corresponding results. In particular, for software supply chain risk, the process in country A has the highest risk for SSCR enforcement, followed by country C. The lowest risk in the supply chain is in country B, as shown in the table below.
接着，作者探讨了在不同地区优化风险评估的方法：A国由于高风险的自然灾害需要远程软件管理；C国的社会政治因素影响软件采购；而B国由于稳定条件，提供了低风险的采购环境。
The authors then explore ways to optimize risk assessment in different regions: country A requires remote software management due to high-risk natural disasters; socio-political factors affect software procurement in country C; and country B provides a low-risk procurement environment due to stable conditions.
本文提出的方法通过自动化的查询过程和层次分析法（AHP），能够减少专家工作量达56.1%，同时提高复杂概率评估的准确性。以上证明了该论文的研究成果有助于理解有效的风险管理策略。此外，当风险因素的数量增加时，例如每个类别中的一个因素（外部和内部风险），所需查询的数量呈指数级增长。
The methodology proposed in this paper is able to reduce the expert workload by up to 56.1% through automated query process and hierarchical analysis (AHP) while improving the accuracy of complex probabilistic assessments. The above proves that the findings of the paper contribute to the understanding of effective risk management strategies. Moreover, when the number of risk factors increases, for example, one factor in each category (external and internal risk), the number of queries required increases exponentially.
四、知识补充——层次分析法（Knowledge supplementation - hierarchical analysis）
层次分析法根据问题的性质和要达到的总目标，将问题分解为不同的组成因素，并按照因素间的相互关联影响以及隶属关系将因素按不同层次聚集组合，形成一个多层次的分析结构模型，从而最终使问题归结为最低层(供决策的方案、措施等)相对于最高层(总目标)的相对重要权值的确定或相对优劣次序的排定。其具体步骤如下：
Hierarchical analysis according to the nature of the problem and the overall goal to be achieved, the problem is broken down into different components, and according to the interrelated impact of the factors as well as the affiliation of the factors according to the different levels of aggregation of combinations, the formation of a multi-level analysis of the structural model, which ultimately makes the problem boils down to the lowest level (for decision-making programs, measures, etc.) relative to the highest level (the overall goal) of the relative importance of the weights of determining or The ranking of relative advantages and disadvantages. The specific steps are as follows:
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参考资料：ChatGPT、百度百科
参考文献：
André Felipe Henriques Librantz, Ivanir Costa, Mauro de Mesquita Spinola, et al. Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method [J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2021, 59(22): 6758-6775.
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文案| Ann
排版| Ann
审核| Whisper