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今天小編為大家帶來“精讀期刊論文《基于貝葉斯方法的軟體供應鍊風險評估》的7.2失效機率評估（2）”。
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Today, the editor brings the "7.2 probability failu (2) of the journal paper 'Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method'".
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一、内容摘要（Content summary）
本期推文将從思維導圖、精讀内容、知識補充三個方面介紹精讀期刊論文《基于貝葉斯方法的軟體供應鍊風險評估》的失效機率評估（2）。
In this issue, the tweet will introduce the probability failu (2) of the journal paper "Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method" from three aspects: mind map, detailed reading content, and additional knowledge supplementation.
二、思維導圖（Mind Mapping）
三、精讀内容（Detailed Reading Content）
根據上一期推文的分析，作者通過具體的百分比指數分析了不同國家在各個風險因素下的表現，特别是在參與者風險、軟體元件風險、操作和維護風險、物流供應鍊風險、軟體供應鍊風險等方面的風險評估，并得出相應結果。其中，針對于軟體供應鍊風險，A國的流程對SSCR的強制執行風險最高，其次是C國，供應鍊中風險最低的是B國，如下表所示。
Based on the analysis in the previous tweet, the authors analyzed the performance of different countries under each risk factor through specific percentage indices, especially in terms of participant risk, software component risk, operation and maintenance risk, logistics supply chain risk, and software supply chain risk for the risk assessment, and came up with the corresponding results. In particular, for software supply chain risk, the process in country A has the highest risk for SSCR enforcement, followed by country C. The lowest risk in the supply chain is in country B, as shown in the table below.
接着，作者探讨了在不同地區優化風險評估的方法：A國由于高風險的自然災害需要遠端軟體管理；C國的社會政治因素影響軟體采購；而B國由于穩定條件，提供了低風險的采購環境。
The authors then explore ways to optimize risk assessment in different regions: country A requires remote software management due to high-risk natural disasters; socio-political factors affect software procurement in country C; and country B provides a low-risk procurement environment due to stable conditions.
本文提出的方法通過自動化的查詢過程和層次分析法（AHP），能夠減少專家工作量達56.1%，同時提高複雜機率評估的準确性。以上證明了該論文的研究成果有助于了解有效的風險管理政策。此外，當風險因素的數量增加時，例如每個類别中的一個因素（外部和内部風險），所需查詢的數量呈指數級增長。
The methodology proposed in this paper is able to reduce the expert workload by up to 56.1% through automated query process and hierarchical analysis (AHP) while improving the accuracy of complex probabilistic assessments. The above proves that the findings of the paper contribute to the understanding of effective risk management strategies. Moreover, when the number of risk factors increases, for example, one factor in each category (external and internal risk), the number of queries required increases exponentially.
四、知識補充——層次分析法（Knowledge supplementation - hierarchical analysis）
層次分析法根據問題的性質和要達到的總目标，将問題分解為不同的組成因素，并按照因素間的互相關聯影響以及隸屬關系将因素按不同層次聚集組合，形成一個多層次的分析結構模型，進而最終使問題歸結為最低層(供決策的方案、措施等)相對于最高層(總目标)的相對重要權值的确定或相對優劣次序的排定。其具體步驟如下：
Hierarchical analysis according to the nature of the problem and the overall goal to be achieved, the problem is broken down into different components, and according to the interrelated impact of the factors as well as the affiliation of the factors according to the different levels of aggregation of combinations, the formation of a multi-level analysis of the structural model, which ultimately makes the problem boils down to the lowest level (for decision-making programs, measures, etc.) relative to the highest level (the overall goal) of the relative importance of the weights of determining or The ranking of relative advantages and disadvantages. The specific steps are as follows:
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That's all for today's sharing.
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參考資料：ChatGPT、百度百科
參考文獻：
André Felipe Henriques Librantz, Ivanir Costa, Mauro de Mesquita Spinola, et al. Risk assessment in software supply chains using the Bayesian method [J]. International Journal of Production Research, 2021, 59(22): 6758-6775.
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