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译注：尼古拉斯·拉迪(中文名罗迪)，主要从事国际经济政策和中国经济问题研究，并为美国政府和国际经济组织提供政策咨询。现任美国彼得森国际经济研究所高级研究员、美国对外关系理事会成员。
美国知名经济学家尼古拉斯·R·拉迪
尼古拉斯·R·拉迪在《外交事务》上写道：未来几年，中国的增长速度将是美国的两倍。
他认为，许多悲观预测都是基于对数据的错误解读。
拉迪说，随着人民币升值，中国的名义国内生产总值在十年内将超过美国。
经济学家尼古拉·R·拉迪说，对中国经济的悲观看法基于严重的误读，使分析人士无法看到中国未来大规模增长的潜力。
上海陆家嘴
虽然许多悲观主义者现在认为中国经济无法恢复新冠疫情大流行前几十年快速扩张的状态，但彼得森研究所高级研究员不认同这种看法：
拉迪周二在《外交事务》中写道：“上世纪70年代末，中国开始进行经济改革，克服了比现在大得多的挑战。尽管近年来经济增长放缓，但未来中国的增长速度可能是美国的两倍。”
他指出，因为中国2023年的GDP增长与前几年两位数的增长相比乏力，不少悲观主义者认为这意味着中国将永远落后于美国。
去年，中国的名义GDP增长了4.6%，低于美国的6.3%%。但拉迪说，当调整两个国家的通货膨胀或者说中国的通货紧缩后，情况就会改变。调整后的中国GDP实际上增加5.2%,超过美国的增长2.5%。
拉迪表示，对美中经济增长的误解也来自于华盛顿自2022年以来大幅提高利率，而中国的做法恰恰相反。这压低了人民币汇率，侵蚀了中国以美元计算的GDP总值。
4月3日的人民币兑美元汇率
但随着美国的政策可能很快放松，人民币将在短期内升值，拉迪补充说：“以美元衡量的名义中国GDP今年几乎肯定会恢复到与美国进一步接近，并有可能在大约10年内超过美国。"
拉迪认为，对中国消费者国内支出的看法也存在错误，许多人担心消费者和企业已经把储蓄放在首位。
拉迪指出，实际上相反，中国去年的家庭消费超过了收入，而中国企业则加大了债务负担，并增加了对制造业、采矿业、公用事业和服务行业的投资。
与此同时，拉迪写道，许多人担心中国庞大的房地产行业投资崩溃并非完全错误，尽管这被夸大了。比如，尽管自2021年以来，新屋开工数出现了大幅回落，但这并不是因为资金在逃离。
完工和交楼成中国房地产开发商首要任务
相反，在政府政策鼓励下，开发商更多地转向了住房项目的完成和交付。
拉迪说，还有人指责中国对私营企业的打击是经济增长的阻力，认为这迫使私人投资枯竭，企业家离开中国。
他写道：“2014年后，私人投资占总投资份额的下降，几乎都是由于由私人企业主导的房地产市场的调整。如果不包括房地产，中国的私人投资在2023年增长了近10%。"
Don't write off China: Why one economist says the nation is likely to grow at double the rate of the US in coming years. By Filip De Mott on Business Insider，April 3, 2024
China will grow at double the US rate in coming years, Nicholas R. Lardy wrote for Foreign Affairs.
- He argues that many of its gloomy outlooks are based on a misreading of data.
- China's nominal GDP will surpass the US's in a decade as the yuan appreciates, Lardy said.
Doom and gloom outlooks on China are too heavily based on misconceptions, blinding analysts to the country's potential for massive growth down the road, economist Nicholas R. Lardy says.
While many pessimists have by now dismissed China's ability to return to the rapid expansion it enjoyed in pre-pandemic decades, the Peterson Institute senior fellow disagrees:
"China overcame even greater challenges when it started on the path of economic reform in the late 1970s. While its growth has slowed in recent years, China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the United States in the years ahead," Lardy wrote in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday.
He notes that although China's 2023 GDP expansion appears meager to the double-digit growth it achieved in prior years, pessimists are thinking this means that China's falling behind the US economy.
China's nominal GDP grew 4.6% last year, surpassed by a 6.3% rise in the US. But this changes when adjusting for each country's inflation, or — in China's case — disinflation, Lardy said. In that case, China's GDP outpaced the US, with each country expanding 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
Misconceptions around growth also come from the fact that Washington has aggressively tightened interest rates since 2022, while China has done the opposite, Lardy said. That depressed China's yuan, eroding the value of its GDP when measured in dollars.
But with US policy likely to ease soon, the yuan is set to appreciate in the near-term, Lardy added: "Its nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars will almost certainly resume converging toward that of the United States this year and is likely to surpass it in about a decade."
Lardy aruges that China bears are also mistaken about internal spending in the country, with many worried that consumers and businesses have prioritized savings above all else.
Instead, he notes that household consumption overtook income last year, while Chinese companies ramped up debt, and increased investment in manufacturing, mining, utilities, and services.
Meanwhile, many are not entirely wrong to fear an investment collapse in China's massive real estate sector, though this is overblown, Lardy wrote. For instance, although a dramatic pullback in housing starts since 2021 has occurred, it's not because money is fleeing.
Instead, developers have turned greater attention towards housing project completions, encouraged by government policy.
Others have also called out China's crackdown on private companies as a headwind for growth, arguing that it's forced private investment to dry up and entrepreneurs to leave the country, Lardy said.
"Almost all the decline in the private share of total investment after 2014 resulted from a correction in the property market, which is dominated by private companies," he wrote. "When real estate is excluded, private investment rose by almost ten percent in 2023. "
Read the original article on Business Insider