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譯注：尼古拉斯·拉迪(中文名羅迪)，主要從事國際經濟政策和中國經濟問題研究，并為美國政府和國際經濟組織提供政策咨詢。現任美國彼得森國際經濟研究所進階研究員、美國對外關系理事會成員。
美國知名經濟學家尼古拉斯·R·拉迪
尼古拉斯·R·拉迪在《外交事務》上寫道：未來幾年，中國的增長速度将是美國的兩倍。
他認為，許多悲觀預測都是基于對資料的錯誤解讀。
拉迪說，随着人民币升值，中國的名義國内生産總值在十年内将超過美國。
經濟學家尼古拉·R·拉迪說，對中國經濟的悲觀看法基于嚴重的誤讀，使分析人士無法看到中國未來大規模增長的潛力。
上海陸家嘴
雖然許多悲觀主義者現在認為中國經濟無法恢複新冠疫情大流行前幾十年快速擴張的狀态，但彼得森研究所進階研究員不認同這種看法：
拉迪周二在《外交事務》中寫道：“上世紀70年代末，中國開始進行經濟改革，克服了比現在大得多的挑戰。盡管近年來經濟增長放緩，但未來中國的增長速度可能是美國的兩倍。”
他指出，因為中國2023年的GDP增長與前幾年兩位數的增長相比乏力，不少悲觀主義者認為這意味着中國将永遠落後于美國。
去年，中國的名義GDP增長了4.6%，低于美國的6.3%%。但拉迪說，當調整兩個國家的通貨膨脹或者說中國的通貨緊縮後，情況就會改變。調整後的中國GDP實際上增加5.2%,超過美國的增長2.5%。
拉迪表示，對美中經濟增長的誤解也來自于華盛頓自2022年以來大幅提高利率，而中國的做法恰恰相反。這壓低了人民币匯率，侵蝕了中國以美元計算的GDP總值。
4月3日的人民币兌美元匯率
但随着美國的政策可能很快放松，人民币将在短期内升值，拉迪補充說：“以美元衡量的名義中國GDP今年幾乎肯定會恢複到與美國進一步接近，并有可能在大約10年内超過美國。"
拉迪認為，對中國消費者國内支出的看法也存在錯誤，許多人擔心消費者和企業已經把儲蓄放在首位。
拉迪指出，實際上相反，中國去年的家庭消費超過了收入，而中國企業則加大了債務負擔，并增加了對制造業、采礦業、公用事業和服務行業的投資。
與此同時，拉迪寫道，許多人擔心中國龐大的房地産行業投資崩潰并非完全錯誤，盡管這被誇大了。比如，盡管自2021年以來，新屋開工數出現了大幅回落，但這并不是因為資金在逃離。
完工和交樓成中國房地産開發商首要任務
相反，在政府政策鼓勵下，開發商更多地轉向了住房項目的完成和傳遞。
拉迪說，還有人指責中國對私營企業的打擊是經濟增長的阻力，認為這迫使私人投資枯竭，企業家離開中國。
他寫道：“2014年後，私人投資占總投資份額的下降，幾乎都是由于由私人企業主導的房地産市場的調整。如果不包括房地産，中國的私人投資在2023年增長了近10%。"
Don't write off China: Why one economist says the nation is likely to grow at double the rate of the US in coming years. By Filip De Mott on Business Insider，April 3, 2024
China will grow at double the US rate in coming years, Nicholas R. Lardy wrote for Foreign Affairs.
- He argues that many of its gloomy outlooks are based on a misreading of data.
- China's nominal GDP will surpass the US's in a decade as the yuan appreciates, Lardy said.
Doom and gloom outlooks on China are too heavily based on misconceptions, blinding analysts to the country's potential for massive growth down the road, economist Nicholas R. Lardy says.
While many pessimists have by now dismissed China's ability to return to the rapid expansion it enjoyed in pre-pandemic decades, the Peterson Institute senior fellow disagrees:
"China overcame even greater challenges when it started on the path of economic reform in the late 1970s. While its growth has slowed in recent years, China is likely to expand at twice the rate of the United States in the years ahead," Lardy wrote in Foreign Affairs on Tuesday.
He notes that although China's 2023 GDP expansion appears meager to the double-digit growth it achieved in prior years, pessimists are thinking this means that China's falling behind the US economy.
China's nominal GDP grew 4.6% last year, surpassed by a 6.3% rise in the US. But this changes when adjusting for each country's inflation, or — in China's case — disinflation, Lardy said. In that case, China's GDP outpaced the US, with each country expanding 5.2% and 2.5%, respectively.
Misconceptions around growth also come from the fact that Washington has aggressively tightened interest rates since 2022, while China has done the opposite, Lardy said. That depressed China's yuan, eroding the value of its GDP when measured in dollars.
But with US policy likely to ease soon, the yuan is set to appreciate in the near-term, Lardy added: "Its nominal GDP measured in U.S. dollars will almost certainly resume converging toward that of the United States this year and is likely to surpass it in about a decade."
Lardy aruges that China bears are also mistaken about internal spending in the country, with many worried that consumers and businesses have prioritized savings above all else.
Instead, he notes that household consumption overtook income last year, while Chinese companies ramped up debt, and increased investment in manufacturing, mining, utilities, and services.
Meanwhile, many are not entirely wrong to fear an investment collapse in China's massive real estate sector, though this is overblown, Lardy wrote. For instance, although a dramatic pullback in housing starts since 2021 has occurred, it's not because money is fleeing.
Instead, developers have turned greater attention towards housing project completions, encouraged by government policy.
Others have also called out China's crackdown on private companies as a headwind for growth, arguing that it's forced private investment to dry up and entrepreneurs to leave the country, Lardy said.
"Almost all the decline in the private share of total investment after 2014 resulted from a correction in the property market, which is dominated by private companies," he wrote. "When real estate is excluded, private investment rose by almost ten percent in 2023. "
Read the original article on Business Insider