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又传基金管理人跳楼，反弹别碰微盘股

又传基金管理人跳楼，反弹别碰微盘股

今天适合小幅上涨，沪指站上2800就很好了。短期涨太多了，资金反而会犹豫，不利于行情持续。别指望本轮反弹太高，3000很难，2900就该满足了。微盘股还有量化机构赎回和调整策略的风险，中证500和1000还可以。前面的文章我也提醒过：类似北证这种流通盘太小，容易被人联合操纵股价，更适合投机者。

又传基金管理人跳楼，反弹别碰微盘股

近日，又有一位私募大佬因无法承受市场的压力而选择跳楼自杀。据说是搞微盘股策略的，天某资本的曹某。

又传基金管理人跳楼，反弹别碰微盘股

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本轮反弹是预期中的，见2024年1月4日，《2024年藏器于身，待机而动——兼论宏观策略对A股投资收益率的作用》。小盘成长反弹，高股息板块回调也符合预期。微盘股的下跌则是1月没有预期到的。原因在于之前没考虑到量化机构回撤赎回与策略调整的冲击。

为什么微盘股反弹不能买。这要从微盘股的定义和盈利根源说起。微盘股一般是指比小盘股市值更小的股票，反映A股5000余家上市公司市值最微小的股票的表现。以wind微盘股指数编制为例：其成分股数量为400，加权方式为算术平均，更新频率为日频。样本空间选择为：全市场总市值后400 的股票，剔除ST、*ST、退市整理、首发连板未开等股票。

又传基金管理人跳楼，反弹别碰微盘股

2023年全年小微盘股股价表现一枝独秀，如万得微盘股指数上涨49.88%，中证2000指数上涨5.57%，跑赢大多数重要宽基指数。2024年以来，一些布局小微盘股的公募量化基金业绩回调明显，跌幅超过大多数主动权益基金。

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Banz（1981）认为小盘股的信息不够充分，投资小盘股会有信息不对称的风险，因此会要求更高的预期回报。Amihud和Mendelson(1986)从交易的微观成本出发，推导出预期收益与买卖价差的关系模型，进而提出流动性溢价理论。流动性低的资产其预期收益较高，而流动性​高的资产其预期收益较低。Amihud（2002）从股票流动性的角度解释了小盘股由于存在流动性风险，因而需要更高的流动性风险溢价。Chan和Chen（1991）认为小盘股基本面相较大盘股差，抵御风险能力弱，要求更高的风险溢价。另外还有一些学术研究从壳溢价、过度投机等方面解释。

​本轮小微盘股的下跌自然不是因为信息风险突然增大了，而是抛盘相对于买盘增加导致流动性风险增大了。举个极端的例子，某只市值10亿的股票，股价10元，只有一股在外交易，20元就可以把股票市值拉到20亿。但倘若原本持仓不动的人要卖了，仍然只有20元出价，大家竞相降价出逃，股价就可能跌到5元甚至更低。房子涨跌波动较大也有流动性不足的原因。当前，量化机构收益率大幅回撤，肯定会导致基金持有人赎回，部分量化投资机构也会暂时调整投资策略控制回撤，于是卖盘增加。而小微盘的交易对手本来就主要是量化机构，当买方都变成卖方后，发生流动性挤兑也就是可以预期的。结果就和债务通缩效应一样，量化机构越卖，股价和基金净值越低，赎回和调整策略的越多，小微盘卖压越大，股价和基金净值越低……

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