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It is also rumored that fund managers jumped off the building and rebounded and did not touch micro-cap stocks

It is also rumored that fund managers jumped off the building and rebounded and did not touch micro-cap stocks

Today is suitable for a slight rise, and it is good for the Shanghai Composite Index to stand above 2800. If the short-term rise is too much, the funds will hesitate, which is not conducive to the continuation of the market. Don't expect the rally to be too high in this round, 3000 is difficult, 2900 should be satisfied. Micro-cap stocks also have the risk of quantitative institutional redemption and adjustment strategies, and the CSI 500 and 1000 are okay. I also reminded in the previous article: The circulating stock like the Beijing Stock Exchange is too small, and it is easy to be jointly manipulated by others, which is more suitable for speculators.

It is also rumored that fund managers jumped off the building and rebounded and did not touch micro-cap stocks

Recently, another private equity boss chose to commit suicide by jumping off a building because he couldn't withstand the pressure of the market. It is said that he is engaged in a micro-cap stock strategy, Cao of Tian Capital.

It is also rumored that fund managers jumped off the building and rebounded and did not touch micro-cap stocks

​

This round of rebound is expected, see January 4, 2024, "2024 Hidden Weapons, Waiting to Move: Also on the Role of Macro Strategy on A-share Investment Returns". Small-cap growth rebounded, and the pullback in the high-dividend sector was also in line with expectations. The decline in micro-cap stocks was not expected in January. The reason is that the impact of quantitative institutional drawdowns, redemptions and strategy adjustments has not been taken into account before.

Why micro-cap stocks can't be bought on a rally. It starts with the definition of microcap stocks and the source of earnings. Micro-cap stocks generally refer to stocks with a smaller market capitalization than small-cap stocks, reflecting the performance of the stocks with the smallest market capitalization among the more than 5,000 A-share listed companies. Take the compilation of the Wind Micro Cap Index as an example: the number of constituent stocks is 400, the weighting method is arithmetic average, and the update frequency is daily. The sample space is selected as: stocks with the bottom 400 of the total market capitalization of the whole market, excluding stocks such as ST, *ST, delisting and consolidation, and unopened stocks in the initial offering.

It is also rumored that fund managers jumped off the building and rebounded and did not touch micro-cap stocks

For the whole year of 2023, the share price performance of small and micro cap stocks has been outstanding, such as the Wind Micro Cap Index rose 49.88% and the CSI 2000 Index rose 5.57%, outperforming most major broad-based indices. Since 2024, the performance of some public quantitative funds with small and micro cap stocks has rebounded significantly, and the decline has exceeded that of most active equity funds.

​

Banz (1981) argues that small-cap stocks are not well informed, and that investing in small-cap stocks carries the risk of information asymmetry, and therefore requires higher expected returns. Amihud and Mendelson (1986) deduced the relationship between expected return and bid-ask spread from the micro cost of trading, and then proposed the liquidity premium theory. Illiquid assets have higher expected returns, while highly liquid assets have lower expected returns. Amihud (2002) explains from the perspective of equity liquidity that small-cap stocks require a higher liquidity risk premium due to their liquidity risk. Chan and Chen (1991) argue that small-cap stocks have weaker risk resilience than larger-cap stocks and require higher risk premiums. In addition, there are some academic studies that explain it in terms of shell premium, excessive speculation, etc.

The decline in this round of small and micro cap stocks is naturally not due to the sudden increase in information risk, but the increase in selling orders relative to buying orders, which has led to an increase in liquidity risk. To take an extreme example, a stock with a market value of 1 billion, the stock price is 10 yuan, and only one share is traded, 20 yuan can pull the stock market value to 2 billion. However, if the original holder wants to sell, there is still only a 20 yuan bid, and everyone is competing to reduce the price and flee, and the stock price may fall to 5 yuan or even lower. There are also reasons for the lack of liquidity. At present, the sharp drawdown in the yield of quantitative institutions will definitely lead to redemption by fund holders, and some quantitative investment institutions will also temporarily adjust their investment strategies to control the drawdown, so the selling order increases. The counterparties of small and micro caps are mainly quantitative institutions, and when buyers become sellers, a liquidity run can be expected. As a result, the more quantitative institutions sell, the lower the stock price and net value of the fund, the more redemption and adjustment strategies, the greater the selling pressure of small and micro caps, and the lower the stock price and net value of the fund......

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