蔡宁：央行超预期降准呵护资本市场

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央行开年降准，无论是下降幅度还是时点选择均超市场预期。被认为是本周国常会提出“要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展”之后，央行层面的政策落地。

■蔡宁

在1月24日举行的国务院新闻办发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，人民银行将于2月5日下调存款准备金率0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。本次降准是继2011年以来的第22次降准，金融机构加权平均存款准备金率下行至7.0%，再创历史新低。本次降准无论是下降幅度还是时点选择，均超市场预期。

下降幅度上，2022年和2023年各有两次全面降准，但幅度均为0.25个百分点。本次降准打破前两年“惯例”，大幅下降0.5个百分点，向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，创两年之最。

时点选择上，由于2023年底实施了1万亿增发国债和1.38万亿特殊再融资债增量政策，市场普遍预期将于1月15日降息予以对冲。但上周降息落空后，市场认为春节前将不会再有政策调整。本次突如其来的全面降准，让市场为之一振。

多重因素推动央行超预期降准

　　

一是落实中央精神，服务实体经济，降低融资成本。

2023年10月30日，中央金融工作会议提出，“保持流动性合理充裕、融资成本持续下降”。2023年12月11日，中央经济工作会议提出，“促进社会综合融资成本稳中有降”。2024年1月16日，习近平总书记在省部级主要领导干部推动金融高质量发展专题研讨班开班式上强调，“坚持把金融服务实体经济作为根本宗旨”。本次降准是金融部门落实中央精神，高质量服务实体经济，降低融资成本的具体表现。

二是补充市场流动性，对冲资金缺口。

2023年年底至今，为加快经济恢复发展，中央先后实施了1万亿增发国债、1.38万亿特殊再融资债等增量政策，市场普遍存在资金缺口。同时，历年春节前，企业缴税和年终工资奖金发放都会导致市场流动性紧张，叠加配合年初地方政府专项债券的发行，为熨平春节效应，缓解节前资金紧张压力，多重因素推动了本次降准。

三是引导市场预期，释放稳增长积极信号。

2023年，大陆GDP增长5.2%，圆满实现了增长目标，但同时也面临着一些困难和挑战，比如市场信心不稳、未来增长预期偏弱、宏观有效需求不足等。本次降准反映出货币政策逆周期和跨周期调节力度显著增大，将推动一季度甚至上半年信贷保持较快扩张，向市场释放强有力的稳增长信号，将有效提振未来预期与信心。

四是呵护资本市场，为市场创造良好的货币金融环境。

资本市场是经济的晴雨表，但近期受多方面因素影响，资本市场的表现差强人意。本次降准的同时，央行明确表示，“为包括资本市场在内的金融市场运行创造良好的货币金融环境”，这被认为是本周国常会提出“要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展”之后，央行层面的政策落地。

放强有力稳增长稳预期信号

　　

一是宏观经济方面，助力一季度实现开门红。

当前大陆经济恢复基础尚不牢固，金融资源难以较好匹配实体经济的融资需求。本次超预期降准释放了强有力的稳增长、稳预期信号，将为市场带来更多的增量资金，加快推动融资成本下降，有利于助力一季度实现开门红。预计下一步央行将更多运用多种货币政策工具，比如包括PSL等在内的结构性货币政策工具等，更加灵活、精准、有效地支持实体经济。

二是债券市场方面，带动利率曲线下行。

2023年下半年以来，为加强地方债务管理，监管部门收紧债券审批，城投债供给大幅下降，市场收益率、信用利差、评级利差的历史分位数均处于低位。同时，叠加1.38万亿特殊再融资债对地方政府债务风险的缓释，近期即便是资质较弱的城投主体的新发债券也遇“哄抢”。在供给端没有显著改善的情况下，本次降准带来的需求端资金面利好将进一步充裕市场流动性，加快带动利率下行。

三是股票市场方面，对股市信心起到一定提振作用。

从历史经验看，近五年（2019年至今）央行共降准9次，其中降幅超过0.5个百分点的达到5次，降准次日大盘均出现不同程度的上涨。本次降准带动周四盘内上证指数最大涨幅超过3%。从后续市场看，本次降准将通过改善流动性推动宽信用，有助于进一步稳定增长预期，逐步带动市场估值修复。

人物名片

蔡宁 天府信用增进股份有限公司总经理助理、首席分析师

编辑|卿子秀 校检|袁钢

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