Cai Ning: The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio more than expected to protect the capital market

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The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio at the beginning of the year, both the decline and the timing of the choice exceeded market expectations. It is believed that this week's National Standing Committee proposed that "more powerful and effective measures should be taken to stabilize the market and stabilize confidence." It is necessary to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market".

■蔡宁

At a press conference held by the State Council Information Office on January 24, People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng said that the People's Bank of China will cut the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points on February 5 to provide long-term liquidity to the market by about 1 trillion yuan. This is the 22nd RRR cut since 2011, and the weighted average reserve requirement ratio of financial institutions fell to 7.0%, hitting a record low. The RRR cut exceeded market expectations in terms of both the magnitude of the decline and the timing of the cut.

In terms of the magnitude of the decline, there will be two comprehensive RRR cuts in 2022 and 2023, but both by 0.25 percentage points. The RRR cut broke the "convention" of the previous two years, dropped sharply by 0.5 percentage points, and provided long-term liquidity to the market by about 1 trillion yuan, the highest in two years.

In terms of timing selection, due to the implementation of the incremental policy of 1 trillion yuan of additional treasury bonds and 1.38 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds at the end of 2023, the market is generally expected to cut interest rates on January 15 to hedge. However, after the interest rate cut fell short last week, the market believes that there will be no policy adjustment before the Spring Festival. The sudden all-round RRR cut has shocked the market.

Multiple factors pushed the central bank to cut the RRR more than expected

　　

The first is to implement the spirit of the central government, serve the real economy, and reduce financing costs.

On October 30, 2023, the Central Financial Work Conference proposed to "maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity and continuous decline in financing costs". On December 11, 2023, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed to "promote the steady and moderate decline of comprehensive social financing costs". On January 16, 2024, General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized at the opening ceremony of the seminar on promoting high-quality financial development for major leading cadres at the provincial and ministerial levels, "insisting on financial services for the real economy as the fundamental purpose". The RRR cut is a concrete manifestation of the financial sector's implementation of the spirit of the central government, high-quality services for the real economy, and reduction of financing costs.

The second is to supplement market liquidity and hedge the funding gap.

Since the end of 2023, in order to accelerate economic recovery and development, the central government has successively implemented incremental policies such as the issuance of 1 trillion yuan of additional treasury bonds and 1.38 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds, and there is a general funding gap in the market. At the same time, before the Spring Festival in previous years, corporate tax payment and year-end salary bonus payment will lead to tight market liquidity, superimposed with the issuance of local government special bonds at the beginning of the year, in order to iron out the Spring Festival effect and alleviate the pressure of pre-holiday capital tension, multiple factors have promoted the RRR cut.

The third is to guide market expectations and release positive signals of stable growth.

In 2023, the mainland's GDP will grow by 5.2%, successfully achieving its growth target, but it also faces some difficulties and challenges, such as unstable market confidence, weak future growth expectations, and insufficient macro effective demand. The RRR cut reflects a significant increase in the counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustment of monetary policy, which will promote the rapid expansion of credit in the first quarter and even the first half of the year, release a strong signal of stable growth to the market, and effectively boost future expectations and confidence.

Fourth, it is necessary to take care of the capital market and create a good monetary and financial environment for the market.

The capital market is a barometer of the economy, but the recent performance of the capital market has been unsatisfactory due to many factors. At the same time as the RRR cut, the central bank made it clear that it would "create a good monetary and financial environment for the operation of the financial market, including the capital market", which is considered to be the proposal of the National Standing Committee this week to "take more powerful and effective measures to stabilize the market and stabilize confidence." It is necessary to enhance the consistency of macro policy orientation, strengthen the innovation and coordination of policy tools, consolidate and enhance the positive trend of economic recovery, and promote the steady and healthy development of the capital market".

Strengthen the signal of stable growth and stable expectations

　　

First, in terms of macroeconomy, it helped to achieve a good start in the first quarter.

At present, the foundation for the mainland's economic recovery is not yet solid, and it is difficult for financial resources to better match the financing needs of the real economy. The unexpected RRR cut has released a strong signal of stable growth and stable expectations, which will bring more incremental funds to the market and accelerate the reduction of financing costs, which is conducive to helping achieve a good start in the first quarter. It is expected that in the next step, the central bank will make more use of a variety of monetary policy tools, such as structural monetary policy tools including PSL, to support the real economy more flexibly, accurately and effectively.

Second, the bond market has driven the interest rate curve downward.

Since the second half of 2023, in order to strengthen local debt management, the regulatory authorities have tightened bond approvals, and the supply of urban investment bonds has dropped sharply, and the historical quantiles of market yields, credit spreads, and rating spreads are all at low levels. At the same time, with the 1.38 trillion yuan of special refinancing bonds to alleviate the risk of local government debt, even the newly issued bonds of weakly qualified urban investment entities have been "rushed" recently. In the absence of significant improvement on the supply side, the positive capital side on the demand side brought by this RRR cut will further enrich market liquidity and accelerate the downward movement of interest rates.

Third, the stock market has played a certain role in boosting the confidence of the stock market.

From historical experience, in the past five years (2019 to the present), the central bank has cut the RRR 9 times, of which 5 times have fallen by more than 0.5 percentage points, and the market has risen to varying degrees on the next day of the RRR cut. The RRR cut drove the Shanghai Composite Index to rise by more than 3% on Thursday. From the perspective of the follow-up market, the RRR cut will promote credit easing by improving liquidity, which will help further stabilize growth expectations and gradually drive the recovery of market valuations.

Character business cards

Cai Ning, Assistant General Manager and Chief Analyst of Tianfu Credit Enhancement Co., Ltd

Editor|Qing Zixiu Proofreading|Yuan Gang

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Indicate the source of the manuscript and the author's name, and offenders will be investigated

Internet news information service license number: 51120180008

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