蔡甯：央行超預期降準呵護資本市場

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央行開年降準，無論是下降幅度還是時點選擇均超市場預期。被認為是本周國常會提出“要采取更加有力有效措施，着力穩市場、穩信心。要增強宏觀政策取向一緻性，加強政策工具創新和協調配合，鞏固和增強經濟回升向好态勢，促進資本市場平穩健康發展”之後，央行層面的政策落地。

■蔡甯

在1月24日舉行的國務院新聞辦釋出會上，中國人民銀行行長潘功勝表示，人民銀行将于2月5日下調存款準備金率0.5個百分點，向市場提供長期流動性約1萬億元。本次降準是繼2011年以來的第22次降準，金融機構權重平均存款準備金率下行至7.0%，再創曆史新低。本次降準無論是下降幅度還是時點選擇，均超市場預期。

下降幅度上，2022年和2023年各有兩次全面降準，但幅度均為0.25個百分點。本次降準打破前兩年“慣例”，大幅下降0.5個百分點，向市場提供長期流動性約1萬億元，創兩年之最。

時點選擇上，由于2023年底實施了1萬億增發國債和1.38萬億特殊再融資債增量政策，市場普遍預期将于1月15日降息予以對沖。但上周降息落空後，市場認為春節前将不會再有政策調整。本次突如其來的全面降準，讓市場為之一振。

多重因素推動央行超預期降準

　　

一是落實中央精神，服務實體經濟，降低融資成本。

2023年10月30日，中央金融工作會議提出，“保持流動性合理充裕、融資成本持續下降”。2023年12月11日，中央經濟工作會議提出，“促進社會綜合融資成本穩中有降”。2024年1月16日，習近平總書記在省部級主要上司幹部推動金融高品質發展專題研讨班開班式上強調，“堅持把金融服務實體經濟作為根本宗旨”。本次降準是金融部門落實中央精神，高品質服務實體經濟，降低融資成本的具體表現。

二是補充市場流動性，對沖資金缺口。

2023年年底至今，為加快經濟恢複發展，中央先後實施了1萬億增發國債、1.38萬億特殊再融資債等增量政策，市場普遍存在資金缺口。同時，曆年春節前，企業繳稅和年終工資獎金發放都會導緻市場流動性緊張，疊加配合年初地方政府專項債券的發行，為熨平春節效應，緩解節前資金緊張壓力，多重因素推動了本次降準。

三是引導市場預期，釋放穩增長積極信号。

2023年，大陸GDP增長5.2%，圓滿實作了增長目标，但同時也面臨着一些困難和挑戰，比如市場信心不穩、未來增長預期偏弱、宏觀有效需求不足等。本次降準反映出貨币政策逆周期和跨周期調節力度顯著增大，将推動一季度甚至上半年信貸保持較快擴張，向市場釋放強有力的穩增長信号，将有效提振未來預期與信心。

四是呵護資本市場，為市場創造良好的貨币金融環境。

資本市場是經濟的晴雨表，但近期受多方面因素影響，資本市場的表現差強人意。本次降準的同時，央行明确表示，“為包括資本市場在内的金融市場運作創造良好的貨币金融環境”，這被認為是本周國常會提出“要采取更加有力有效措施，着力穩市場、穩信心。要增強宏觀政策取向一緻性，加強政策工具創新和協調配合，鞏固和增強經濟回升向好态勢，促進資本市場平穩健康發展”之後，央行層面的政策落地。

放強有力穩增長穩預期信号

　　

一是宏觀經濟方面，助力一季度實作開門紅。

目前大陸經濟恢複基礎尚不牢固，金融資源難以較好比對實體經濟的融資需求。本次超預期降準釋放了強有力的穩增長、穩預期信号，将為市場帶來更多的增量資金，加快推動融資成本下降，有利于助力一季度實作開門紅。預計下一步央行将更多運用多種貨币政策工具，比如包括PSL等在内的結構性貨币政策工具等，更加靈活、精準、有效地支援實體經濟。

二是債券市場方面，帶動利率曲線下行。

2023年下半年以來，為加強地方債務管理，監管部門收緊債券審批，城投債供給大幅下降，市場收益率、信用利差、評級利差的曆史分位數均處于低位。同時，疊加1.38萬億特殊再融資債對地方政府債務風險的緩釋，近期即便是資質較弱的城投主體的新發債券也遇“哄搶”。在供給端沒有顯著改善的情況下，本次降準帶來的需求端資金面利好将進一步充裕市場流動性，加快帶動利率下行。

三是股票市場方面，對股市信心起到一定提振作用。

從曆史經驗看，近五年（2019年至今）央行共降準9次，其中降幅超過0.5個百分點的達到5次，降準次日大盤均出現不同程度的上漲。本次降準帶動周四盤内上證指數最大漲幅超過3%。從後續市場看，本次降準将通過改善流動性推動寬信用，有助于進一步穩定增長預期，逐漸帶動市場估值修複。

人物名片

蔡甯 天府信用增進股份有限公司總經理助理、首席分析師

編輯|卿子秀 校檢|袁鋼

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#191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .85);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .65);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .55);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .35);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--weui-BG-0: #111;--weui-BG-1: #1e1e1e;--weui-BG-2: #191919;--weui-BG-3: #202020;--weui-BG-4: #404040;--weui-BG-5: #2c2c2c;--weui-FG-0: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-FG-HALF: rgba(255, 255, 255, .6);--weui-FG-1: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-FG-2: rgba(255, 255, 255, .3);--weui-FG-3: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-FG-4: rgba(255, 255, 255, .15);--weui-FG-5: rgba(255, 255, 255, .1);--weui-RED: #fa5151;--weui-ORANGERED: #ff6146;--weui-ORANGE: #c87d2f;--weui-YELLOW: #cc9c00;--weui-GREEN: #74a800;--weui-LIGHTGREEN: #3eb575;--weui-BRAND: #07c160;--weui-BLUE: #10aeff;--weui-INDIGO: #1196ff;--weui-PURPLE: #8183ff;--weui-WHITE: rgba(255, 255, 255, .8);--weui-LINK: #7d90a9;--weui-TEXTGREEN: #259c5c;--weui-FG: #fff;--weui-BG: #000;--weui-TAG-TEXT-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-RED: rgba(250, 81, 81, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-ORANGE: rgba(250, 157, 59, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-GREEN: rgba(6, 174, 86, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .6);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLUE: rgba(16, 174, 255, .1);--weui-TAG-TEXT-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .5);--weui-TAG-BACKGROUND-BLACK: rgba(255, 255, 255, .05)}}@media screen and (min-width:1024px) and (prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not(.pages_skin_pc) .wx-root:not([data-weui-theme=light]),body:not(.pages_skin_pc) body:not([data-weui-theme=light]){--appmsgExtra-BG: #121212}}@media(prefers-color-scheme:dark){body:not([data-weui-theme=light]).my_comment_empty_data{background-color:#111}}body,.wx-root{--weui-BG-6: rgba(0, 0, 0, .05);--weui-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(0, 0, 0, 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