If someone had told me two years ago that the Knicks were a playoff team, I would have touched his forehead and asked him if he had a fever that burned his brain out. But now that I'm asking the same question, I'm sure I'll say, "That's right, brother."
According to NBA statistics, New York currently ranks fourth in offensive efficiency in the league (112.6) and fourth in plus-minus (+6.6). That's a big difference from last season, when they were in 22nd place for offensive efficiency (110.2) and net worth (+2.4). Nor has their defense completely fallen off the cliff, in five games – 15th in this year's defensive rating (106.1) compared to fourth last year (107.8). So their hard stats have actually gotten better, and their baseline defensive ratings so far this season have actually improved by a half.
The problem now is that there's a lot of room for improvement in this offense, and it looks crazy when you consider the changes it's already undergone this year. As prominent journalist Zach Lowe noted in his recent "10 Things" column, the Knicks' new backcourts Kemba Walker and Evan Fournier have shot 17-of-38 from three-point range so far this year. Last season combined, Elfrid Payton and Regibrook scored just nine such goals. For the Knicks, it's huge improvements and valuable new skills that have paid off tremendously.
But what hasn't fully shown improvement so far are the players who made some progress last year — namely Julius Randall, Rj Barrett, Alec Burks and Emanuel Quickley. The Knicks' three-point shooting percentage (NBA 27th, 30th shot) and shooting percentage (25th, 0.347) last season were among the lowest in the league, but with a strong five regular rotation players shooting more than 40 percent from the field. The team has depth (Randle, Barrett, Derrick Rose, Bullock and Burks) as well as rookie Quakeley, shooting slightly below par with 38.9 percent shooting.
This season, the remaining five in last year's lineup (excluding Bullock, who is now in the Lone Rangers), shot 42-122 (34.4 percent) from three-point range. Excluding Rose and his fiery 12-22 shooting percentage (54.5%), the remaining four shots shot only a slightly flat 30% (30-100). Assuming the four players get back on track this year and shoot back to 35 percent (the league is expected to see some setbacks this year, but 35 percent could still be seen as a low watermark) for the four who are taking their career backgrounds into account), that increase would be 15 points higher than the Knicks' five-game shooting so far. That would put them ahead of the Los Angeles Lakers with a staggering 118.3 points to become the NBA's second-place average in points per game. The premise is that if they start to hit the rough league average, it's certainly just a hypothetical low watermark.
Instead, let's assume that the Knicks can get 38 percent from the same players with the same amount of shots they're shooting right now. That means that they've shot another 8 three-pointers so far (they're currently shooting exactly 100 three-pointers), which equates to 24 points. That would put them at 120.6 points per game, just a little bit short of Charlotte's 121.2 points in the entire NBA so far this season.
Now, such a prediction also assumes that Kemba will continue to shoot 58.1% from the field (unlikely), Rose will continue to shoot 54.5% (also unlikely), and Fournier will continue to shoot 41.9% (the quality of his performance...). Isn't it impossible? ）。 So assuming the Knicks can get better on the offensive end and probably just keep the top five offenses instead of the top two offenses, that might be a bit overkill.
But that also assumes the Knicks won't embrace the new space their prolific three-pointers give them, and they hope they will. According to cleaning the glass, the Knicks' percentage of shots under the basket (31.9 percent) ranked only 17th in the NBA. That said, thanks to ramp-ups from the field by Randle (61 percent) and determined Mitchell Robinson (90 percent), the Knicks have shot 70.8 percent as a team and are currently fourth in the NBA. If they choose to embrace this aspect of the game more and use three-pointers more as a distraction strategy (or simply abandon three-pointers that become more difficult when offensively closed), this could be the key to unlocking more effective offense.
Regardless, the Knicks' offense feels sustainable and may not be near the top. With the success experienced by the strongest players of the 2020-21 season returning to their form and joining their new teammates, the home team at Madison Garden Square could master one of the NBA's most powerful offenses in due course.