When the cycle disappears, how will the economy develop? How do we choose about employment, entrepreneurship and investment?
"Life makes a fortune by Kangbo", the famous words of Zhou Jintao, chief economist of CITIC Construction Investment, have made many bosses excited.
Here, Kampo refers to the theory of the economic cycle proposed by the Soviet economist Kondratyev in 1925.
Through economic data analysis, he judged that it takes about such a long time to go through a complete economic cycle from "technological upgrading - commodity sales - demand reduction - economic recession - new technology upgrade - new product launch".
It sounds a bit like the tone of the fortune teller Chen Blind in "Dragon Ridge Labyrinth". What is doubtful is that whether it is economics textbooks such as Man kun, or foreign investment banks never mention this stubble, is it that they do not know the treasure?
Source: Guosen Securities
In fact, these pre-World War II third-rate economic views, the level is similar to the "baby bottom", as early as the post-war all falsification.
Lao Huang pondered that if the economic cycle is as punctual as the great aunt, it is really impossible to say that the world has not been rich for so many years.
After 2012, China's economy began to transform, and it was also a turning point where the bosses said that "business is not easy to do, money cannot be earned, and it is difficult to stabilize food".
First, the growth rate of total economic volume has slowed down, with the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2012 from 8.1% to 6% in the fourth quarter of 2019; on the other hand, the continuous transformation of the economic structure, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP in 2012 exceeded that of the secondary industry for the first time.
In other words, if the bosses who are still engaged in traditional industries after 2012, such as heavy industries such as steel, energy and chemical industry, and light industries such as clothing, beverages and toys, 80% will not make money.
On the contrary, if you started to set foot in the tertiary industry such as e-commerce, medical care, education, Internet, logistics and so on 8 years ago, whether you work or invest, as long as you work seriously, now you will participate in a class reunion and sit in a seat at will.
Macroeconomic fluctuations have been greatly reduced, such as what economists like to look at most about GDP, m2, industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and total retail sales of social consumer goods, with almost no fluctuations. To put it bluntly, it is also in the shadows.
The bosses muttered in their hearts, but people have to take a break when they run for 30 minutes, not to mention the rapid economic development for 30 years. Developed countries have basically experienced this kind of thing, which is a common law in the process of the economy moving from the initial stage of development to maturity.
Image source: Network
Behind the reduction of economic volatility and the disappearance of cycles is an increase in production efficiency and a slowdown in demand.
Now, apart from RVs, there's basically nothing we need to save money to buy. Demand is declining, goods are slow to sell, businesses are not doing well, and the economy is gradually decelerating.
Technological advances, especially the Internet, have ironed the information divide. White-collar workers within the five rings and pig farmers outside the eighty rings can know the rise and fall of pork prices and the production capacity of pig enterprises at the same time, and will not rush to the top and give white for a year.
The development of information technology and statistical data allows enterprises and industries to quickly understand the production information of the market, and will not suddenly increase inventory or reduce production capacity, thereby smoothing out economic fluctuations.
Thinking that this year has not seen the short-sighted news of the takeover boss of the fried mask machine and the meltblown cloth, Lao Huang can't help but sigh that technology has indeed changed his life.
When the cycle disappears, how will the economy develop? How do we choose about employment, entrepreneurship and investment?
To ask about the economic development of Lao Huang, like the economic data listed above, before there is a fourth outbreak of science and technology, it will lie down and rest for a long time.
The three questions of employment, entrepreneurship and investment in the back are one thing: what other industries have opportunities?
In the past, economists did investment analysis, mainly looking at economic data first, judging the inflection point of the general trend; analyzing the structural market according to the consumer real estate cycle, looking for sectors, and finally finding specific stocks in the sector.
Image source: Baidu
Their arguments such as "inflection point", "bottoming out", and "v anti" are similar to the magic retail investors who chant the bottom of the valuation every day and desperately copy the bottom two barrels of oil and bank stocks.
As a result, after 2012, all economists who insisted on this set were basically beaten in the face for eight years. After eating Lao Huang's financial dry fried niuhe, I can hear these lines directly in the future.
Back to the point, future economic opportunities lie in new trends.
Regional and demographic differentiation. In 2015, China's labor force appeared at an inflection point, and the population changed from incremental to stock. In the past two years, various localities have relaxed the restrictions on settlement, and the beginning of the robbery war is enough to support this trend.
The spring festival passenger flow of 17-19 in the three years is about 2.97 billion. Lao Huang boldly expects that this year will become the inflection point of China's Spring Festival passenger flow, marking the entry of urbanization into the second half, and the official start of anti-urbanization.
There are many opportunities for cities where people can maintain net inflows, whether in real estate or other industries.
For example, in Zhejiang, the net inflow of population reached 850,000 in 2019, surpassing Guangdong for the first time, and the net inflow of population in Hangzhou exceeded that of Shenzhen. This is also the reason why the Hangzhou property market was hot last month.
Source: Zhongtai Securities
Income differentiation. The monthly income of 600 million people is 1,000 yuan, and the main consumers of social goods and services are middle- and low-income classes, and the demand for many people is sufficient. Pinduoduo's sudden rise, founder Huang Zheng surpassed Ma Yun in the first two days, is the most vivid success case of seizing this trend.
Who can achieve good quality and high price, small profits and high sales in just-needed industries such as food and beverage, medical education, etc., who is the winner of the times.
Image source: See and hear VIP
Industrial differentiation. Don't look at the US stock market rising happily, the ChiNext board has reached a new high today, and the industry differentiation is extremely serious. Technology is the primary productive force, and emerging industries such as Apple and Tesla, 5G, industrial Internet, big data and artificial intelligence are the hopes for the future.
Of course, the just-needed industries such as food and beverage are also very stable, but they are only stable. Don't enjoy the tech achievements while being suspicious of tech companies and tech stocks. Actively embracing technological progress and exploring the unknown are the key traits of human development so far.
Differentiation of enterprises. Demand declined, the market changed from incremental to stock game, and the Matthew effect intensified. Large enterprises with brand, technology and financial advantages will gradually merge with small and medium-sized enterprises to expand market share, improve production efficiency, and improve profitability.
Employment and investment prefer emerging industries such as technology, and entrepreneurship should try to choose industries with low market concentration, such as industries with slow labor productivity improvements such as medical care and education.
Tonight the fried powder out of the pot, like the old yellow financial dry fried beef river, please click to share, pay attention, collect the bill ~
Good night, please use slowly.