E Fund disclosed the second quarterly report of E Fund such as E Fangda Blue Chip Selection and E Fangda Small and Medium Cap Fund, and the "public offering brother" Zhang Kun's heavy stocks surfaced, and in the second quarter, Zhang Kun reduced the allocation of food and beverage industries and increased the configuration of computer and other industries.
In addition, the second quarterly report of the management products of well-known fund managers such as Fu Youxing of GF Fund and Feng Bo of E Fund has also been released. Fu Youxing increased his holdings of stocks with reasonable valuations in light industry, textiles and other industries, and Feng Bo mainly allocated stocks such as the Internet, consumption, new energy, home appliances, TMT, and automobiles.
Zhang Kun: Increase the configuration of computers and other industries
Zhang Kun's E Fangda Blue Chip Select and E Fangda Mid and Mid Cap Stock Positions in the Second Quarter both declined, the E Fangda Blue Chip Select Stock Position decreased from 93.61% at the end of the first quarter to 90.17% at the end of the second quarter, and the E Fangda Small and Medium Cap Stock Position decreased from 93.93% at the end of the first quarter to 70.36% at the end of the second quarter.
In terms of heavy stocks, E Fangda's blue-chip selected top ten heavy stocks are Hong Kong Stock Exchange, China Merchants Bank (a share + Hong Kong stock), Wuliangye, Tencent Holdings, Guizhou Moutai, Luzhou Laojiao, Yanghe Shares, Meituan-w, Hikvision, and Aier Ophthalmology. The top ten heavy stocks in E Fangda's small and mid-cap are Tongce Medical, Guizhou Moutai, Hang Seng Electronics, Hualan Biological, Tiantan Biological, Meinian Health, Wuliangye, Bairun Shares, Suber, and Zhongju High-tech.
Zhang Kun introduced in the quarterly report that the second quarter combination adjusted the structure, reduced the configuration of food and beverage industries, and increased the configuration of computers and other industries. In terms of individual stocks, it still holds high-quality companies with excellent business models, clear industry patterns and strong competitiveness for a long time.
Zhang Kun said that after the epidemic, with the relaxation of global liquidity, global stock markets have risen significantly. For some high-quality companies in industries that are recognized as having long-term room for growth (technology, medicine, consumption, new energy), in addition to the drive of performance growth, valuations have also been significantly improved. In the face of increasingly high price-to-earnings levels, valuation methods for companies are also increasingly using forward (such as 2025 or even 2030) market value discount back to the current year, it seems that only in this way can investors obtain an acceptable level of return.
He believes that such an environment requires investors to judge correctly. "We found that for some companies, with all their assumptions fulfilled, they may be able to earn a discount rate or a slightly higher yield than the discount rate in the next 5 years, but if they are wrong, they may face a 30% or even 50% decline in the stock price." In this case, either do in-depth research in a hot industry to try to gain higher probability certainty, or in a less crowded industry, sacrifice a little probability, take on a little more uncertainty, and get a better odds return. "I often look at the portfolio like this, if the stock market is suspended and trading resumes after 5 years, how much of the expected compound yield each business can bring, from the current judgment, the expected return decline in the next few years may be inevitable."
E Fangda Blue Chip selects the top ten heavy stocks
Source: Fund Announcement
E Fangda is the top 10 heavyweight stocks in the small and mid-cap
Feng Bo: Configure the Internet, consumption, new energy and other sectors
When Feng Bo managed E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise was issued in January this year, the subscription scale reached 239.858 billion yuan, setting a record for the largest subscription scale of a single fund in the history of public funds.
Feng Bo introduced in the second quarterly report that E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprises gradually increased their stock positions in the second quarter, reaching 63% at the end of the period. In terms of industry, it is mainly equipped with the Internet, consumption, new energy, home appliances, TMT, automobiles, etc. In terms of individual stocks, we insist on stock selection in the medium and long-term dimensions, and buy stocks with strong core competitiveness, reasonable valuation and may provide long-term stable returns.
E Fangda competitive advantage of the top ten heavy stocks of enterprises
Feng Bo said that since the beginning of this year, the valuation of enterprises has diverged sharply, and investors have generously given high valuations to some fast-growing industries and individual stocks. In the long run, the expected return on a stock at a high valuation depends on two aspects: First, the accuracy of investor forecasts. Assuming that investors are 90% accurate in their forecasts of corporate growth per year, then the accuracy of their corporate growth forecasts becomes 59% after five years, which shows that the longer the forecast, the lower the accuracy. The second is the probability that the growth of the industry or enterprise exceeds expectations. At high valuation levels, investors' expectations are themselves high, and it is difficult to exceed expectations. However, it is worth noting that the growth of industries or enterprises in the rapid growth period is often non-linear, while investors' expectations are mostly linear, which opens up the possibility of exceeding expectations. Historically, some companies have experienced non-linear growth in the process of going from 0 to 1, and some industries with penetration from 10% to 50%.
In the long run, the ability of investors to identify industries and companies beyond expectations may be a key element in obtaining excess returns in the case of high valuations, which also puts forward higher requirements for the forward-looking and depth of research.
Fu Youxing: It is more difficult to find undervalued assets
GF Ruiyang, managed by GF Fund Taurus Fund Manager Fu Youxing, shows that in the second quarter, the fund's stock position fell slightly. In terms of stocks, the operating conditions of the food, machinery, insurance and other companies in the positions were lower than expected, and the fund reduced its holdings accordingly; at the same time, the fund increased its holdings in stocks with reasonable valuations in light industry, textile and clothing industries.
Specifically, the heavy stocks that GF Ruiyang has set to open in three years include Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Guizhou Moutai, Focus Media, Renfu Pharmaceutical and other companies.
GF Ruiyang set to open the top ten heavy stocks in three years
Fu Youxing said in the quarterly report that at present, the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen is about 86 trillion yuan, and the "market value /GDP" ratio is in the middle and high area of A-shares in the past decade. In this case, it is more difficult to find undervalued assets. Judging from the performance of the stock market in the second quarter, the trend of core assets unanimously recognized by the previous market has diverged, and the stock prices and valuations of companies in industries such as new energy vehicles, pharmaceutical R&D and production outsourcing that have continued to maintain prosperity have reached new highs, while companies with lower prosperity or operating conditions than expected seem to have ushered in Davis's double kill, experiencing a relatively large decline in just a few months.
History has proved that individual stocks occasionally change the stock price trend permanently due to changes in their operating trends, but the law of mean reversion is often tried and tested in the industry. In the future, the manager will adhere to a prudent and rigorous attitude, carefully evaluate the margin of safety and risk-return ratio of the portfolio, and strive to achieve a steady appreciation of the fund assets for the holders.
Editor: Wang Yin