On August 28, the semi-annual report of E Fund was disclosed, and the invisible heavy stocks managed by Top Fund Managers such as Zhang Kun and Feng Bo also surfaced.
In the first half of this year, the market can be described as ups and downs, the valuation of core assets has diverged sharply, investors have given high valuations to some fast-growing industries and stocks, while the valuation of industries and stocks in some traditional economic sectors has been declining, and even refreshing new lows in several years.
Overall, in the first half of the year, equity fund investment differentiation was larger, and fund products in new energy, resource stocks and other sectors achieved a bumper harvest, while fund managers who were mainly based on the traditional economy were not optimistic about the returns in the first half of this year.
In this context, many investors may be full of doubts about the future investment direction, on the one hand, the valuation of the new energy market in a good situation is constantly rising, while on the other hand, the valuation of the traditional economy is declining, how will it be operated next?
Zhang Kun introduced the two influencing factors of stock valuation in the semi-annual report, he believes that this year's stock market has shown a strong preference for high-growth enterprises, but in the next 3-5 time dimensions, can long-term profitability and low interest rate market environment remain unchanged? Zhang Kun said that it may be necessary to select companies with more stringent criteria, ask yourself whether you still have the confidence to buy shares in this company if the stock market is closed for 3-5 years.
Feng Bo said that he is more optimistic about the global economy. With the increase in vaccine production capacity and the increase in penetration rate, the economies of various countries will steadily recover, and global supply and demand will gradually normalize. China's economy will continue to grow steadily, and sustained strong imports and exports, steady growth in consumption and steady investment will all provide guarantees for economic growth. At the same time, pay close attention to changes in the level of global inflation, and the sustained high inflation rate will have a greater negative impact on global liquidity.
Zhang Kun adjusts his position: reduces the configuration of industries such as food and beverage
In the case of the great divergence of the market in the first half of the year, how did the fund manager operate? Zhang Kun's management of E Fangda blue chip selection, E Fangda small and medium cap have revealed specific trends.
E Fonda Blue Chip Selection has reduced the allocation of industries such as food and beverage, and increased the configuration of industries such as banking. In terms of individual stocks, the investment ratio of individual stocks with distinctive business models, clear long-term logic and reasonable valuation levels has been increased.
E Fonda small and medium-sized caps have also reduced the configuration of industries such as food and beverage, but increased the configuration of industries such as computers. In terms of individual stocks, E Fangda Mid and Mid Cap has also increased the proportion of investment in individual stocks with distinctive business models, clear long-term logic and reasonable valuation levels.
In terms of specific position adjustment, E Fangda Blue Chip Select has bought most of the amount of China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank in the first half of this year, and liquor stocks such as Yanghe Shares, Wuliangye, Guizhou Maotai and Luzhou Laojiao have also been bought, and Hong Kong stocks such as China Merchants Bank H Shares, Meituan-W, Tencent Holdings, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange have also bought a lot.
At the same time, after China Merchants Bank and Ping An Bank were bought in large quantities, they quickly reduced their positions, of which Ping An Bank reduced the largest amount, and the stocks bought by Meituan-W, Tencent Holdings, and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange were also reduced, of which Meituan-W reduced the amount the most.
As of June 30, E Fangda blue-chip selected 92 stocks, from the perspective of holding stocks, mainly concentrated in large-cap blue-chip stocks, some small and medium-cap stocks are also favored, but there are not many positions.
Similar to E Fonda Blue Chip Selection, E Fonda Mid-Cap is also mainly dominated by large-cap blue-chip stocks, and some small and medium-cap stocks are also allocated, but the amount of positions is not large.
Feng Bo adjusted his position: increased allocation to the Internet, consumption and other industries
At the beginning of this year, a major event occurred in the public offering circle, E Fund Manager Feng Bo's E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise raised 237.4 billion yuan on the first day, refreshing the historical record of the public offering industry.
After the completion of the raised funds, the E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise Fund basically completed the opening of positions, and the stock position reached more than 60% by the end of the first half of the year. In terms of industry, it is mainly equipped with the Internet, consumption, new energy, home appliances, TMT, medicine, automobile, finance, etc. In terms of individual stocks, we insist on stock selection in the medium and long-term dimensions, and buy stocks with strong core competitiveness, reasonable valuation and may provide long-term stable returns.
With the completion of the fund's position building, the overall performance of E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprise Fund in the first half of the year was stable, and since mid-July, its net value has also declined significantly due to the greater volatility of Internet stocks. As of the end of June 2021, the fund's navigable share growth rate was -0.56%, but the latest figures are -8.19%.
As of the end of June, E Fangda Competitive Advantage Enterprises held 77 stocks, in addition to the top ten heavy stocks announced in the second quarter, Guizhou Moutai, Geely Automobile, Focus Media, Tsinghua Unigroup and other invisible heavy stocks also surfaced.
In the first half of this year, E Fangda Research Selection was also mainly configured with the Internet, consumption, new energy, electronics, medicine, automotive and other industries. Individual stocks are mainly based on structural adjustment - due to the large market volatility in the first half of the year, the industry differentiation is obvious, resulting in a sharp oscillation of some individual stocks, E Fangda Research Select has increased the allocation of some stocks with strong core competitiveness, reasonable valuation and large stock price drawdown, and at the same time reduced some stocks with excessive valuation or changes in fundamentals; In Hong Kong stocks, the proportion of investment in automobiles and technology has been increased.
In the first half of the year, E Fangda mainly allocated the Internet, consumption, new energy, electronics, medicine and other industries, and increased the proportion of semiconductor, military and other industries. Individual stocks are mainly based on structural adjustment - due to the large market volatility in the first half of the year, the industry differentiation is obvious, resulting in a sharp oscillation in some stocks, E Fangda mid-cap growth increased the allocation of some of the middle market value, good growth, strong competitiveness, stock price drawdown is large, while reducing some of the stocks with excessive valuation or changes in fundamentals; Hong Kong stocks, increased the proportion of investment in biomedicine and automotive industries with medium market value and good growth.
Zhang Kun and Feng Bo look forward to the operation strategy in the second half of the year
In the first half of this year, the market differentiation is more obvious, and the steel, nonferrous metals, chemical and new energy industries performed better, while the non-banking and finance, home appliances, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries performed relatively backward.
The fund was more differentiated in the first half of this year, with the net value growth rate of E Fangda blue-chip selected shares managed by Zhang Kun being 5.17%, and the performance benchmark yield in the same period was 2.06%; the net value growth rate of E Fangda's small and mid-cap shares was -2.35%, and the performance comparison benchmark yield in the same period was 4.92%.
Zhang Kun believes that when Mr. Market bids on a stock, it is determined by two factors: the first is the consensus of investors on future profits, the amount and timing of free cash flow; the second is the consensus of investors on what discount rate to use to convert the expected profit and free cash flow into the present value.
This year's stock market has shown a strong preference for high-growth companies. Zhang Kun said that when bidding on enterprises, for the first factor, investors are willing to extrapolate the trend of short-term optimism and be optimistic about long-term profitability; for the second factor, investors tend to think that the current low interest rate will be maintained for a long time. However, according to the previous analysis, will these two factors remain unchanged over the next 3-5 time dimensions? For us, we may need to select companies by more stringent criteria, and ask ourselves if I still have the confidence to buy shares in this company if the stock market closes for 3-5 years.
Looking forward to the second half of the year, Feng Bo is more optimistic about the global economy. "With the increase in vaccine production capacity and the increase in penetration rate, the economies of various countries will steadily recover, and global supply and demand will gradually normalize. China's economy will continue to grow steadily, and sustained strong imports and exports, steady growth in consumption and steady investment will all provide guarantees for economic growth. At the same time, Feng Bo said that we pay close attention to changes in the global inflation level, and the sustained high inflation rate will have a greater negative impact on global liquidity.
In the second half of the year, feng bo said that it will pay more attention to the bottom-up approach, continue to adhere to the medium and long-term dimensions to judge the certainty of the industry and enterprises and the rationality of valuation, look for excellent companies to invest, and strive to achieve better performance.
Editor: Wan Jianyi